London Jemison didn’t miss a shot against Oakland. Seton Hall’s next job is to make sure Alabama doesn’t get comfortable enough for another night like that. Jemison’s 20 points on perfect shooting, including six three-pointers, powered a 109–68 win. The Pirates arrive with a very different opening act: three wins while holding every opponent below 63 points. Can Seton Hall disrupt Alabama’s perimeter attack without losing the rebounding battle that follows?
Seton Hall has found ways to win without easy baskets
The Pirates have scored 66, 67 and 68 points in their first three games. Against Charlotte, they found enough offense through trips to the line and timely guard play. Roddie Anderson III scored 17 points despite shooting 3-for-11, making three triples and eight free throws. Devin Williams added 16 points, including six at the line. Those possessions matter here: Seton Hall needs ways to keep scoring when an initial shot doesn’t fall, rather than letting every empty trip become an invitation for Alabama to pull away.
Mihailo Petrovic supplied another route through a difficult offensive night. He finished with 12 points, six assists and three steals, and the Pirates used an 8–0 second-half run to turn a three-point lead into an 11-point advantage. His ability to create a basket or take away a possession gives Seton Hall something beyond simply hoping Alabama misses. The question is whether the Pirates can produce those interruptions against a much more explosive offense.
Alabama makes the defense cover more than one shooter
Jemison was the headline against Oakland, but he wasn’t the only problem. Amari Allen contributed 14 points and six assists, while Aden Holloway made four three-pointers for 12 points. Allen hit two off-the-dribble threes among Alabama’s first eight points. That makes the defensive task harder: Seton Hall can’t focus only on catching a stationary shooter or chasing Jemison off his spots.
This shooting threat extends beyond one hot game. Alabama is averaging a Division I-leading 16.3 made three-pointers through three games. Seton Hall’s closeouts will matter, but so will the possession after the closeout. Forcing a miss only helps if the Pirates collect the rebound and avoid giving Alabama another chance to find a shooter.
The spread turns on rebounds and disrupted possessions
DraftKings lists Alabama as a 17.5-point favorite and the total at 156.5. We’d need more than a repeat of the Oakland shooting highlights to justify laying that number. Alabama must keep building advantages even when its first shot misses; Seton Hall needs to interrupt those stretches before a handful of empty trips becomes a decisive run.
Our rebounding projections favor Alabama 43.1 to 31.4, while our steals projections favor Seton Hall 9.1 to 6.2. That’s the matchup’s clearest tug-of-war. Alabama’s rebounding advantage could give its shooters extra attempts and keep the Pirates from settling the game down. Seton Hall’s projected steals offer a different answer: take the ball away before there’s a shot to rebound, then turn those possessions into points.
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The favorite’s price becomes more appealing if Alabama consistently finishes defensive possessions and makes Seton Hall work against a set defense. The underdog’s case strengthens if Petrovic and the Pirates create live-ball turnovers while Anderson and Williams keep finding points at the line. We’d pass on laying a large number based on shooting alone; the more convincing sign would be Alabama controlling the possessions around those shots.
The total asks whose scoring environment survives
The teams’ early results sit on opposite sides of this threshold. Seton Hall’s three games have produced combined scores of 108, 127 and 130, all Under their respective totals. Alabama’s have finished at 170, 187 and 177, with two Overs. These aren’t just different shooting nights: they show how far each team’s opening games have been from the scoring environment the other has experienced.
For the Over to be worth taking, we’d want reason to expect Seton Hall to contribute more offense than it has so far, or Alabama to generate enough repeat attempts and quick scoring bursts to compensate. Pirates steals could help that case if they become immediate baskets. But if those steals merely stop Alabama possessions and lead to long, difficult Seton Hall trips, they work against the Over instead.
The Under becomes more attractive if the Pirates can limit Alabama to one shot and force its guards to keep creating late in possessions. Simply pointing to Seton Hall’s three Unders isn’t enough at this higher threshold, though. Alabama has already shown it can score from several perimeter spots. Watch whether the Pirates force contested attempts without giving back the possession on the glass—that matters more than whether the first couple of threes happen to miss.
Watch what happens after the first miss
The opening rebounds and Petrovic’s ability to disrupt the ball should tell us plenty about whether Seton Hall can make this uncomfortable. If Alabama keeps retrieving misses, the Pirates may struggle to make their defensive work count. Visit the men’s college basketball betting board to compare this offense-versus-defense matchup with the rest of the slate and see where the available numbers have moved.
Odds and projections are snapshots and can change. Wagering involves risk.
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