Dallas won the first meeting 4–0 in Buffalo. If you’re backing the Stars again, Thomas Harley’s point prop fits a win where the power play matters. Jason Robertson’s shots give you another way to look at Dallas’ offense if you expect most of its pressure at even strength.
There’s also a way to back that Dallas win from the other end of the ice. Tage Thompson can score for Buffalo and still finish without an assist, as he did in each of the Sabres’ last two losses.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Harley Over 0.5 points |
−125 | 80.0% 8 of 10 Stars wins |
50.0% 9 of 18 Stars games |
| Jason Robertson Over 2.5 shots on goal |
−170 | 90.0% 9 of 10 Stars wins |
72.2% 13 of 18 Stars games |
| Tage Thompson Under 0.5 assists |
−225 | 90.9% 10 of 11 Sabres losses |
57.9% 11 of 19 Sabres games |
Thomas Harley to record a point
With Miro Heiskanen out, Harley played 6:23 on the power play and had two assists with the man advantage in the 4–3 win over San Jose. Heiskanen is out again, giving Harley a chance to keep making plays from the top of the zone.
Harley also helped set up two even-strength goals in the 8–3 loss to Winnipeg. On one, David Perron tipped his shot from the point. A net-front target gives Harley another way to pick up a point if Buffalo stays out of the box.
Jason Robertson to put three shots on goal
Robertson scored the opener and put four on net in the first meeting with Buffalo. If Dallas can get him the puck inside the circles, he can reach three shots without needing to beat the goalie.
Four of his nine hits in Dallas wins landed on exactly three shots. His only miss in a win was against Columbus, when he still recorded an assist. If you’re expecting chances to go through Robertson as a shooter, that’s a reason to stay at three instead of asking for a fourth.
Tage Thompson under 0.5 assists
Thompson scored on the power play in the overtime loss in Chicago without recording an assist. The under fits a Dallas win where it takes away the pass across the slot and lives with some shots from Thompson himself.
There’s a risk even if Dallas keeps the puck out of the middle. In the loss to Ottawa, Thompson’s shot went in off Peyton Krebs for an assist, his only one in a Buffalo loss this season. Last season he went without one in 23 of 31 losses. I’d want to see Dallas clear the front of its net if I’m paying this price.
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Which prop fits a Stars win?
Harley fits if you expect Dallas to draw penalties and get traffic in front. Robertson’s shots are where I’d start if you expect sustained pressure from his line. Thompson’s under makes more sense if your Dallas pick rests on keeping Buffalo’s other forwards quiet.
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