LSU turned a 12-yard crossing route into a 70-yard touchdown at Auburn. Against Texas A&M, Alabama scored on an interception return and used a fourth-down fumble to set up the go-ahead drive. In Baton Rouge on Saturday, watch whether Alabama can tackle well enough to make LSU drive the full field and whether the Tigers can protect the ball when those drives get long.
LSU can move the chains underneath
Sam Leavitt threw for a career-high 387 yards in the 38–17 win at Auburn, and Jackson Harris caught nine passes for 178 yards and two touchdowns. LSU scored on five of its six first-half possessions and also put together a 95-yard touchdown drive capped by a pass to tight end Trey’Dez Green, according to the Associated Press recap. Even if Alabama keeps a safety deep, Leavitt can still find Harris or Green underneath. The Tide need to make those tackles at the catch and force LSU to earn the next first down.
DraftKings had LSU favored by 5.5, at 4:34 p.m. ET Wednesday. Alabama trailed Texas A&M 20–17 entering the fourth quarter before a fourth-down takeaway gave it the ball at midfield. Keelon Russell found Rico Scott for 38 yards three plays later and threw two touchdowns in the quarter, per the AP recap. A short field and a quick strike like that can help Alabama stay within five even if LSU starts faster. Leavitt went turnover-free in each of his last two games, so the Tide may have to earn that field position by forcing punts.
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Big plays matter more than the recent over counts
DraftKings priced both sides of 52.5 at −110 in the same snapshot. Alabama has gone over its own total in six of eight games and LSU in five of eight. But Alabama’s 31–20 win was an over at 49.5 and would fall short at 52.5, even with Dijon Lee Jr.’s interception return for a score. LSU’s 55-point game at Auburn cleared both thresholds.
Watch what happens on the first few catches over the middle. If LSU turns them into extra yards and Russell answers with chunk plays of his own, the game has a path past 52.5. If the defenses tackle quickly and force both offenses to convert several third downs per drive, there’s less room for the quick scores that pushed those games over.
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