Chicago’s latest game offered a glimpse of the offense it needs and a reminder of how hard it has been to finish the job. The Blackhawks scored four times in Boston, then lost a two-goal third-period lead and fell in overtime. Colorado arrives after consecutive 5–2 wins, bringing several scoring threats to a matchup that asks whether Chicago’s offensive spark can last against a much stronger opponent.
Colorado’s production comes from several places
Artturi Lehkonen scored twice in Saturday’s 5–2 win over Calgary. Nathan MacKinnon contributed a goal and an assist, Martin Necas and Brock Nelson each scored, and Cale Makar finished with four assists.
That gives Chicago more to handle than one hot scorer. Colorado built a 4–0 lead during the second period and restored a three-goal cushion after Calgary pulled within two early in the third.
The recent wins deserve some context. Both New Jersey and Calgary were playing on consecutive nights when Colorado beat them, and the Flames used Arsenii Sergeev in his second career start. The Avalanche made those opportunities count; Monday brings a different opponent and goalie matchup.
Colorado is 8–5–1 overall but only 5–5 across its last 10 games. The two straight wins are encouraging without erasing the uneven stretch that preceded them.
Chicago needs to build on its Boston performance
Anton Frondell scored twice in Saturday’s 5–4 overtime loss at Boston. Third-period goals from Connor Bedard and Ryan Greene put Chicago ahead 4–2. The Bruins erased that lead, tying the game with 12 seconds left in regulation.
Chicago also outshot Boston 28–13 over the first two periods. Those were meaningful signs of life for a team that had scored only six goals across its previous five games.
The Blackhawks are 4–9–1 and have won three of their last 10. Their path here starts with making Saturday’s scoring more repeatable, then keeping control when the game tightens late. Frondell and Bedard provided concrete contributions to build on, even though the finish spoiled the result.
Our shot projections have Colorado at about 33 to Chicago’s 24. That comparison puts a premium on the Blackhawks making productive use of the shots they get, particularly if they can’t reproduce the volume they generated early in Boston.
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The goalie samples sharpen the scoring question
The listed goalies are Mackenzie Blackwood and Spencer Knight, with neither confirmed yet. Blackwood stopped 127 of 139 shots across his last five appearances for Colorado, a .914 save percentage. He allowed two or three goals in each of those starts. His latest was a 25-save effort in Saturday’s win.
Spencer Knight stopped 135 of 149 shots across his last five appearances for Chicago, a .906 save percentage. His best result in that stretch was a one-goal outing against Los Angeles; three of the other four starts ended with three goals allowed. These are five-start snapshots from this season.
If those goalie matchups hold, Blackwood’s recent work adds a specific obstacle to Chicago’s effort to sustain its scoring. At the other end, Knight would face a Colorado attack whose latest five goals came from four players. That breadth makes the matchup more demanding than focusing only on MacKinnon.
A clear favorite, with competing total signals
The DraftKings moneylines make Colorado a -238 favorite, with Chicago at +195. The Avalanche have the stronger record and the broader recent scoring performance. Chicago’s Boston game supplies a plausible response, but it needs to turn one productive afternoon into a more consistent attack.
The total is 6.5. Colorado’s last five games have gone Over, while Chicago had five straight Unders before Saturday’s nine-goal game. The tension is useful: Colorado’s scoring depth can push the game upward, but Chicago’s earlier scoring drought and Blackwood’s recent results could limit the other half of the total.
Frondell and Bedard gave Chicago goals to work with in Boston; sustaining that threat would matter even more if its shot volume falls toward our projection. Colorado’s four different scorers against Calgary show how the Avalanche can spread that burden. For Chicago to make the favorite uncomfortable, the next step is to pair another useful offensive contribution with the late-game resistance that was missing after its 4–2 lead Saturday.
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