Colorado’s attack has started quickly, and Winnipeg’s challenge Wednesday is to keep that firepower from turning into another runaway game. The Avalanche just beat St. Louis 6-1, while the Jets arrive off a tighter 3-2 win in Pittsburgh. Our projections suggest Colorado will generate substantially more shots here, making Winnipeg’s ability to limit the damage—and capitalize on its own opportunities—the central matchup to watch.
Colorado brings more than one scoring threat
Martin Necas finished Saturday’s 6-1 win over St. Louis with two goals and an assist, while Nathan MacKinnon added three assists. Colorado scored four times in the second period, with Nicolas Roy and Necas finding the net just 23 seconds apart. That’s a difficult attack to contain when contributions are coming from several players rather than one scorer.
There was also some help from the opponent: two Colorado goals followed puck-handling mistakes by Blues goalie Jordan Binnington. The six-goal result shows how effectively the Avalanche punished those mistakes, but Winnipeg doesn’t have to reproduce them. Avoiding those easy opportunities is an important part of keeping this game manageable.
A meaningful gap in expected shots
Our shot projections put Colorado at roughly 34 and Winnipeg at 26. That gives a concrete shape to the challenge for the Jets: fewer scoring attempts to work with and more shots to turn away. The danger of those attempts still matters, leaving finishing and goaltending plenty of room to change the result.
Our event-specific grades also separate these teams. Colorado’s attack earns an A+, compared with Winnipeg’s C-. Our defensive evaluations incorporate Mackenzie Blackwood for the Avalanche and Stuart Skinner for the Jets, with team grades of A and C+, respectively. Colorado’s stronger profile extends beyond its forwards to the team defending behind them.
Winnipeg’s latest victory supplies a useful counterweight. Cole Perfetti scored the winner nine seconds after Pittsburgh tied Monday’s game in the third period, with Josh Morrissey assisting. The Jets found the decisive response in a close contest. Producing timely offense again would give them a way to compete even if Colorado finishes with more shots.
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The favorite’s price is part of the challenge
DraftKings’ moneyline odds have Colorado at -192 and Winnipeg at +160. The Avalanche’s stronger grades and expected shot advantage fit that favorite status, but the price asks bettors to pay for it. Identifying the stronger team and deciding whether its odds are attractive are separate judgments.
Colorado’s attacking depth and expected shooting volume give it the stronger matchup profile. Winnipeg’s recent win shows a different route: timely finishing can decide a close game even when the shot count isn’t the whole story. The key for the Jets is to make Colorado work for its chances rather than hand over the easy opportunities that helped fuel Saturday’s rout. How well they manage that challenge matters more than treating six goals as Colorado’s repeatable baseline.
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