Chicago has scored 30 and 31 points in its last two games, but Monday night brings a different test: a Seattle defense coming off a three-point concession against Kansas City. With the Seahawks favored by three at Lumen Field, the central question is whether Caleb Williams and the Bears can sustain their passing revival against the strongest unit in this matchup.
Chicago’s passing revival meets Seattle’s defensive strength
The Bears arrive at 5-2, with Williams facing Sam Darnold and the 4-3 Seahawks. We give Seattle’s defense an A+ and Chicago’s offense a B. Seattle also holds an A overall grade against Chicago’s B. That gives the home favorite a clear ratings argument, even though Chicago has the better record.
Williams offers a substantial counterargument. He threw for 308 yards and two touchdowns in Chicago’s 30-24 win over New England, completing 22 of 33 passes. Luther Burden III supplied 130 receiving yards on four catches, and Colston Loveland caught a touchdown. That production through the air helped drive Chicago’s latest win. One explosive receiving night does not establish what Seattle will allow, but it explains why containing Burden matters.
Seattle’s response is a defense that held Kansas City to 213 total yards in a 20-3 victory. The Chiefs managed only 50 rushing yards. For Chicago, that makes maintaining a useful passing attack especially important if the run game struggles to create opportunities. It also makes this a more demanding examination than simply carrying forward the Bears’ last two scores.
What the three-point spread asks of Seattle
A Seattle win by exactly three would push the spread bet; the favorite needs a larger margin to cover. The season’s spread results show Chicago at 5-2 and Seattle at 2-3-2. The distinction matters: winning games and rewarding a favorite’s backers have not been the same thing for the Seahawks.
Chicago’s longer record reinforces that resistance: the Bears have covered 14 of 19 games over the past year. Seattle has covered 12 of 20 over that window, with six losses and two pushes. Both teams have rewarded spread bettors over those past prices, so the history does not settle this particular number. The more immediate test is whether Seattle’s defensive advantage produces separation against a Chicago offense showing renewed production.
The yardage outlook is less lopsided than the grades. Our projections put Chicago at about 347 total yards and Seattle at 344, with roughly 21 first downs apiece. That points to similar offensive volume, leaving the more important question of which team makes its opportunities count.
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The total depends on more than Chicago’s last two games
DraftKings puts the total at 46.5. Four of each team’s seven games this season have finished Under. That sits alongside Chicago’s consecutive Overs and Seattle’s most recent defensive shutdown, leaving competing evidence rather than a simple scoring pattern to follow.
Seattle can also generate offense through Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Smith-Njigba caught nine passes for 150 yards against Kansas City; his full-game receiving-yards line is 98.5 in the sportsbook snapshot. His production is a reason to examine Seattle’s scoring potential even when the defense dominates the discussion.
Friday’s practice updates leave important questions for both attacks. Kevin Fishbain of The Athletic reported that Loveland was limited with a neck injury and Chicago backup running back Kyle Monangai did not participate because of thumb/toe trouble. John Boyle of the Seahawks’ official site reported that receiver Rashid Shaheed missed practice with a knee injury and running back Zach Charbonnet was limited with a knee injury. Their progress toward Monday matters to the options around both quarterbacks.
Seattle’s defense supplies the strongest case for the favorite; Chicago’s improved passing and spread record make the size of the winning margin a separate question. If the Bears can keep Burden and the passing game productive, Seattle will have to do more than suppress the run to create separation. At the total, that same Chicago response matters alongside Smith-Njigba’s ability to give the Seahawks offense a lift. Recheck prices and availability before betting, and keep stakes within a set budget.
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