Chicago gave Tyson Bagent a winning formula last Sunday: a productive running game, long drives and very little time for the opponent to answer. Bringing that approach to Lambeau Field against Jordan Love and the Packers is a different challenge. The Bears enter at 3-1, but Green Bay’s passing outlook and stronger defensive grade complicate a repeat of Chicago’s comfortable win over the Jets.
Chicago has a formula worth watching
Kyle Monangai ran for 146 yards and two touchdowns as the Bears beat New York 23-12 on Sunday. Chicago held the ball for almost 43 minutes and finished with an 18-play drive that ran out the clock. Bagent contributed a career-high 268 passing yards, with Rome Odunze catching six passes for 94 yards. The running game was the headline, but Chicago could move the ball through the air, too.
Our rushing projections give the Bears another substantial workload: roughly 33 carries and 155 rushing yards, compared with about 26 carries and 110 yards for Green Bay. That makes Chicago’s ground game a central part of the matchup. Sustaining drives would help the Bears keep Love off the field, although matching last week’s extraordinary possession advantage is a tall order.
The backfield's availability deserves attention. D’Andre Swift is questionable with a hip injury, and Monangai is questionable with a thumb injury. Caleb Williams remains out with a hamstring injury, with Bagent starting at quarterback. Those statuses make the health of Chicago’s running backs especially relevant to the approach that worked so well against the Jets.
Green Bay needs to finish its chances
The Packers beat Tampa Bay 17-14 on Sunday, but two fourth-quarter turnovers kept them from putting the game away. Love threw two touchdown passes before a late interception, and Kaleb Johnson lost a fumble inside the Buccaneers’ 5-yard line. Green Bay reached useful scoring positions; holding onto the ball was the problem.
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Our passing-yard projections put Green Bay at about 250 yards and Chicago at about 230. Love gives the Packers a plausible route to answering the Bears’ longer, run-heavy possessions through the air. Turning those drives into points rather than turnovers is the key improvement Green Bay needs after last week’s narrow escape.
Chicago’s recent defensive results add an interesting wrinkle. The Bears have allowed just 28 points across their past three games. Our grades nevertheless give Green Bay the stronger defensive assessment, B- to Chicago’s C+, while rating both offenses highly: an A for the Bears with Bagent and an A- for the Packers with Love. Chicago’s recent stinginess is encouraging, but our broader matchup assessment leaves room for Green Bay to move the ball.
What matters against the spread
DraftKings has Chicago favored by 1.5 points, so even a Bears win by one point wouldn’t cover. Chicago’s clearest supported strength is its projected rushing advantage. Green Bay’s counterweight is Love’s passing outlook and the chance to get more from its scoring opportunities than it did in Tampa.
Chicago has a credible way to sustain drives, but Green Bay’s stronger defensive grade makes another dominant possession performance harder to count on. The Bears’ backfield availability matters to that plan, while the Packers need to protect the ball and finish the chances Love creates. Drive completion—not simply rushing volume—is the most useful lens for judging whether Chicago can keep this game on its terms.
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