Joe Burrow threw for 428 yards last Sunday, and Cincinnati still managed only 17 points. That’s the tension heading into the Bengals’ visit to Miami: can their passing game turn productive drives into enough points to justify their favorite status? Cincinnati has a clear strength to lean on, but receiver injuries and Miami’s ground game make this more than a simple comparison of passing attacks.
Cincinnati needs to finish its drives
The Bengals’ 22-17 loss to Jacksonville shows why yardage alone won’t settle this matchup. Burrow threw two interceptions, including one in the red zone, and Cincinnati’s final possession ended a yard short of a first down after reaching the Jaguars’ 21. The passing game created opportunities; mistakes and missed chances kept the Bengals from cashing them in.
Tee Higgins caught 11 passes for 151 yards in that game before leaving with a groin injury. Ja’Marr Chase also left with a concussion. Now, Chase and Higgins are questionable: Chase with a concussion and Higgins with a groin injury. Jay Morrison of SI.com reported Wednesday that Higgins missed practice with groin and neck injuries. With both receivers in Cincinnati’s starting receiving group, their availability is a meaningful concern for the passing attack.
Our analysis still rates Cincinnati’s offense an A with Burrow at quarterback, compared with a D+ for Miami’s defense. Our team projections also point toward substantially more passing production from the Bengals: roughly 270 yards versus 170 for the Dolphins. That gives Cincinnati a clear strength to work with, but last week’s result shows how much finishing those drives matters.
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Miami has a ground-game counterweight
Miami’s 15-10 loss at Minnesota wasn’t without encouraging moments. The Dolphins recorded four sacks and kept the Vikings out of the end zone. Ollie Gordon II supplied a 53-yard run and a 12-yard rushing touchdown, giving Miami a way back into the game after a quiet first half.
The harder part was the passing game: Malik Willis completed nine of 17 throws for 85 yards and lost a fumble. Our projections give Miami roughly 135 rushing yards, compared with about 100 for Cincinnati. With Willis at quarterback and Gordon atop Miami's running-back depth chart, the ground game is a meaningful counterweight to the Bengals’ passing advantage. Miami still needs more from its passing attack to make those rushing gains count.
What matters at this spread
DraftKings has Cincinnati favored by 6.5 points. The Bengals’ stronger offensive evaluation and higher passing projection give them the more convincing offensive case, but last week’s missed opportunities show why moving the ball isn’t enough. Chase and Higgins’ availability, along with cleaner execution near the goal line, matters most to translating that advantage into points. Miami’s defensive resistance against Minnesota and Gordon’s rushing production offer a competitive path, though another thin passing performance would leave the Dolphins relying heavily on those two strengths.
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