Joe Burrow threw five touchdown passes last Sunday, and Cincinnati still needed overtime to beat Tennessee. Atlanta’s afternoon went the other way, ending in a shutout against a team that didn’t complete a pass. Those results make the Bengals look like the obvious story in Madrid. The more useful question is whether Cincinnati can turn its passing firepower into a controlled win, or whether another uneven performance leaves the Falcons in the game.
Cincinnati’s wins haven’t settled the spread
The Bengals have won three straight but covered only once during that stretch. Their latest escape is the clearest example. Burrow threw for 462 yards, with Tee Higgins collecting 155 and Ja’Marr Chase adding 141, yet Tennessee intercepted him three times and stayed level through regulation. Cincinnati’s 43–36 overtime win fell short of covering as a 13.5-point favorite, the AP reported. The passing game supplied plenty of points, but the mistakes helped keep the Titans in it.
The saved DraftKings spread has Cincinnati favored by 3. That is a different task from laying nearly two touchdowns, so last week’s missed cover needs that context. Cincinnati is 5–2 overall and 3–4 against the spread this season; Atlanta is 3–5 in both columns. The Bengals’ wins help explain their appeal, while the spread results bring us back to how much they are being asked to win by.
Our passing and rushing projections describe different offensive routes. Cincinnati projects for about 263 passing yards and 96 rushing yards, while Atlanta projects for about 195 through the air and 135 on the ground. Burrow, Chase and Higgins give the Bengals a concrete passing threat. Bijan Robinson gives Atlanta a focal point for its ground game. For Cincinnati, avoiding the turnovers that interrupted last week’s passing success is the most direct way to make that production count.
Atlanta’s shutout needs context
The Falcons’ 16–0 loss at Tampa Bay came in driving rain on a wet field. Michael Penix Jr. completed eight of 24 passes for 125 yards and threw four interceptions. Robinson managed 76 rushing yards on 19 carries, while Tampa Bay piled up 324 rushing yards, according to the AP. Atlanta struggled on both sides of the ball, but that unusual afternoon is a poor standalone template for Sunday’s neutral-site meeting.
Atlanta scored 29 against San Francisco the week before and reached 23 in each of the two games before that. The Falcons have shown they can contribute points. Their practical challenge is to sustain possessions without giving Cincinnati the extra opportunities that four interceptions created for Tampa Bay. Early drives that end with punts or points, rather than turnovers, would be a useful first step toward keeping Burrow from getting repeated chances.
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A 52.5 total asks for more than Bengals highlights
Cincinnati’s last three games all went over their totals, and five of its seven games this season have done so. The recent thresholds were 45.5 or 46.5, though—below Sunday’s 52.5. Its 35–13 win at Baltimore cleared that game’s total but produced only 48 points. Last week’s 79-point finish also included overtime. The scoring run is worth considering with those differences in view.
Atlanta offers a different recent picture: consecutive unders and an even four overs and four unders across eight games this season. Its uneven output is the central question at this number. Cincinnati’s passing weapons and the 36 points it conceded to Tennessee show how a Bengals game can become a scoring exchange. Atlanta’s preceding performances give it a way to join in, but its latest collapse shows why that contribution is hard to take for granted.
For both the spread and total, watch how the possessions end. Burrow piling up yards while giving the ball away would leave room for another close finish. Cleaner Cincinnati drives would put more pressure on Penix and Robinson to answer. That is the distinction to follow in Madrid: an impressive passing afternoon can keep the Bengals moving, but finishing drives and protecting the ball will determine how much control comes with it.
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