Tage Thompson can score and still finish without an assist. If you’re backing Chicago, look at how often he went without an assist in Buffalo losses and how often defenseman Mattias Samuelsson stayed below two shots in those same games. Their full records show how often each under landed regardless of the result.
Player props to compare for a Blackhawks win
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tage Thompson Under 0.5 assists |
−175 | 90.0% 9 of 10 Buffalo losses |
55.6% 10 of 18 appearances |
| Mattias Samuelsson Under 1.5 shots on goal |
−125 | 80.0% 8 of 10 Buffalo losses |
61.1% 11 of 18 appearances |
Tage Thompson under 0.5 assists
Thompson went without an assist in nine of Buffalo’s 10 losses this season. He still had a point in the losses to Utah, Montreal on Oct. 17 and Tampa Bay. All three points were goals. At −175, the under still has a route if Thompson scores himself.
Ottawa is the exception. Thompson had an assist in that loss, just as he did when Buffalo beat Chicago in October. Across the past two regular seasons, he went without an assist in 32 of 41 Buffalo losses, compared with 59 of 99 appearances overall. That’s still a difference, though smaller than this season’s nine of 10.
Mattias Samuelsson under 1.5 shots on goal
Samuelsson stayed below two shots in eight of Buffalo’s 10 losses this season. DraftKings had the under at −125. He finished with one shot when Buffalo beat Chicago in October and zero in the latest loss to Tampa Bay. This line can land even if the Sabres’ forwards have a productive night.
The Vegas loss shows how this one can go wrong. Samuelsson put four shots on net, and he had two in the October loss to Montreal. Across the past two regular seasons, the under landed in 26 of 40 Buffalo losses and 63 of 96 appearances overall. That longer record gives little reason to tie his shot count to the result.
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Which under fits your Chicago read?
Thompson’s under fits a game where he can threaten as a shooter but has fewer chances to set up teammates. Samuelsson’s under pays more at the quoted prices and fits if you expect few shots on net from his spot on Buffalo’s blue line. His longer record makes it harder to lean on the Chicago-win angle by itself.
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