Chicago finally has its first win, but building on that breakthrough will take more against an Islanders team we rate much more highly defensively. Tuesday’s 4-2 victory over St. Louis gave the Blackhawks something to build on after three losses. With Ilya Sorokin in goal, New York presents a tougher test of whether Chicago can turn one encouraging night into sustained scoring.
Chicago’s breakthrough needs a little context
The Blackhawks earned their win with two second-period goals and some important stops from Spencer Knight, who made 25 saves. But the 4-2 finish included two Chicago empty-net goals, so the score looks more comfortable than the game actually was. Knight stopped a late second-period breakaway and helped protect the lead in the third.
Anton Frondell scored the go-ahead goal, while Frank Nazar’s shot produced the rebound Sam Rinzel converted to tie it. Those are useful contributions to carry forward. The bigger challenge is consistency: Chicago was outscored 15-5 across its opening three road losses, and we still rate its attack D-. Tuesday was progress, but it doesn’t erase that difficult start.
New York’s strongest case starts in its own end
We give the Islanders a B defensive grade, compared with Chicago’s C-. With Sorokin in goal, that’s the clearest strength separating these teams in our analysis. New York’s attack receives a more modest C- grade, though, so its defensive advantage carries much of the case for the home side.
The Islanders’ recent results underline that uneven picture. They beat New Jersey 6-0 on Saturday, then lost 5-2 to the Rangers on Tuesday. Defenseman Alexander Romanov is out with a knee injury, an absence that matters to New York’s defensive picture, though the available information doesn’t establish a particular replacement or adjustment.
Our shot projections put New York at roughly 29 and Chicago at roughly 24. That points to more shooting volume for the Islanders, giving Knight another important role in Chicago’s path to a competitive game. The Blackhawks’ opportunities will matter just as much: fewer shots would put more pressure on making those attempts count.
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The favorite’s price is part of the test
DraftKings’ moneyline prices have the Islanders at -185 and Chicago at +154. New York’s stronger defensive assessment fits its favorite status, but that price asks bettors to weigh the advantage against an attack that has swung from six goals to two in consecutive games.
New York’s strongest case combines its higher defensive grade with a projected shooting-volume edge. Chicago’s counterweight is the progress shown Tuesday and Knight’s ability to keep a close game within reach. The deciding test for the Blackhawks is whether they can generate enough scoring against Sorokin before empty-net situations enter the picture—not simply repeat the four goals on their latest scoreboard. For bettors weighing the favorite’s price, New York’s modest attacking grade is the main reason to look beyond its defensive advantage.
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