Columbus has the projected shooting edge, but Philadelphia has two ways to make this uncomfortable for the road favorite: a productive recent stretch from Dan Vladar and an attack that’s putting more goals on the board. The Blue Jackets are a small road favorite at -125 with DraftKings. Whether that price appeals depends partly on how much weight you give Columbus’ extra shooting volume against those recent Flyers improvements.
Philadelphia’s record misses the recent improvement
The Flyers are 3-7-3, but they’ve won three of their last four games and scored at least three goals in each of those four. Saturday’s 5-4 loss to Anaheim ended their three-game winning streak despite two goals from Matvei Michkov, who extended his point streak to five games.
That gives Philadelphia a more encouraging attacking picture than its season record alone suggests. Still, our grades favor Columbus’ attack, B to D, while Philadelphia holds the stronger defensive evaluation, B to C+. The matchup pairs the better-rated attack with the better-rated defensive team rather than giving either club an advantage across the board.
Columbus’ recent scoring offers another reason not to lean on the grades alone: the Blue Jackets have scored two goals or fewer in each of their last four games. Their stronger attacking evaluation hasn’t translated into much offense lately.
Philadelphia will also be without defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen. The Flyers announced Monday that he is expected to miss approximately two weeks with an upper-body injury.
The shooting edge has a goaltending counterweight
Our shot projections put Columbus at roughly 29 and Philadelphia at roughly 26. That’s a useful volume advantage for the Blue Jackets, though a few extra shots on net could be outweighed by the goalie matchup.
If Vladar and Jet Greaves get the starts, their recent goalie form offers a clear contrast. Vladar has a .921 save percentage across his five most recent appearances this season and allowed just four goals across his latest three. Greaves has an .883 save percentage across his five, with a 31-save shutout against the Rangers followed by five goals allowed on 19 shots against Toronto.
Columbus did find a timely breakthrough Saturday, when Adam Fantilli scored 59 seconds into overtime to beat Vegas 2-1. That power-play winner ended an 0-for-22 drought. It was an important finish, but the preceding dry spell remains relevant against a Philadelphia team we rate more highly defensively.
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Why the 5.5-goal total deserves a closer look
Philadelphia’s games have gone Under in 10 of 13 games this season, producing a historical profit of 6.47 units from flat one-unit Under bets. That history and Columbus’ recent scoring struggles give the lower-scoring case some substance at 5.5. Vladar’s recent work would strengthen it if he starts, but the Flyers’ four-game scoring improvement pulls the other way.
Special teams add another wrinkle. Michkov and Porter Martone both scored during the same Philadelphia power-play opportunity Saturday, while Columbus finally broke its own drought. Our projections give the Flyers about three power-play opportunities and the Blue Jackets about two or three. Philadelphia’s recent production makes those chances worth watching at 5.5, while Columbus still has to show that Saturday’s breakthrough can become more consistent power-play offense.
Columbus’ better-rated attack and modest shooting advantage make a reasonable case for its small-favorite status, but its four-game scoring slowdown keeps that case from being straightforward. Philadelphia has the stronger recent goalie numbers if Vladar starts, and its improving attack offers a second way to offset fewer shots. The most important test for Columbus is whether its volume advantage produces more offense than it has lately; the grades and shot count alone don’t resolve that concern.
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