Columbus just won a game without allowing a goal, but that doesn’t make Sunday’s visit to Minnesota a simple continuation of Saturday night. Jet Greaves delivered the shutout against the Rangers; Cam Talbot is expected in net here. With Minnesota favored at -185 and our projections calling for nearly identical shot totals, the bigger question is how much separation the Wild can create from those opportunities.
Saturday’s win doesn’t tell the whole goalie story
Kent Johnson scored in overtime as Columbus edged the Rangers 1-0 on Saturday, with Greaves stopping all 29 shots. Now the Blue Jackets travel to Saint Paul to play on consecutive nights, while Minnesota has been off since Thursday.
Talbot’s two recent appearances have been much less tidy: he stopped 20 of 22 shots against Pittsburgh, then 17 of 23 against Florida. That leaves him with an .822 save percentage across those two outings. It’s a small sample, but it makes Saturday’s shutout a shaky foundation for assessing this particular goalie matchup.
In our goalie comparison, Minnesota’s Jesper Wallstedt has a .908 save percentage across his last five appearances. He allowed four goals on 25 shots in his latest outing, so his stronger overall sample comes with a recent warning of its own.
Why Minnesota’s edge isn’t about more shots
Our shot projections put both teams at about 29 shots on goal. We expect similar shooting volume, leaving Minnesota without a projected advantage in the number of shots it puts on net.
We rate the Wild’s attack a little more highly—B+ compared with Columbus’ B—and their leading forwards supplied a vivid example in their previous game. Minnesota beat St. Louis 5-4 on Thursday, with Matt Boldy scoring a hat trick and Kirill Kaprizov adding a goal and two assists. That performance shows the threat Columbus faces, although Minnesota also let a 5-2 lead become a one-goal finish.
There’s another modest difference in our projections: roughly three power-play opportunities for Minnesota versus a little over two for Columbus. Those extra chances could give the Wild another route to separation even if the shot totals stay close. For Columbus, the encouraging part is that our expected shooting volume leaves room to challenge Wallstedt rather than relying entirely on another shutout.
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What that means for the 6.5-goal total
The posted total of 6.5 brings the contrast into focus. Talbot’s difficult two-game sample, Minnesota’s productive Thursday and the Wild’s projected power-play opportunity edge give the scoring threat some substance. The counterweight is Wallstedt’s better five-appearance record, with neither team projected to hold a shooting-volume advantage. His latest four-goal outing also shows why that stronger save percentage doesn’t settle the scoring question.
Minnesota has the stronger supported case as the favorite, but -185 asks bettors to pay for that advantage. Our projections don’t give the Wild a shooting-volume cushion, so the case rests more on their stronger attacking assessment, extra power-play opportunities and the goalie matchup than on a barrage of shots. Columbus’ clearest counterargument is comparable projected volume against a goalie who conceded four last time out. That makes Minnesota’s ability to turn its attacking advantages into better production—not a repeat of Saturday’s shutout—the useful focus when weighing the price.
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