The Rangers have won the first two games of this series, but Sunday’s key question isn’t simply whether they can finish the sweep. It’s whether Toronto can make Jacob deGrom work hard enough to reach a Texas bullpen that covered nearly an entire game Saturday.
Toronto and Texas meet at 2:35 p.m. EDT on Sunday, September 20, at Globe Life Field in Arlington. The Rangers enter at 78-77, while the Blue Jays are 76-79. The latest DraftKings moneyline has Texas at -185 and Toronto at +152, with the total set at 7 runs.
DeGrom is the center of the matchup
DeGrom starts for Texas opposite Toronto right-hander Spencer Miles. The AP’s recap of Saturday’s game noted that deGrom is 11-9 with a 3.79 ERA this season, including an 8-2 home record and a .183 opponents’ batting average at Globe Life Field.
DeGrom’s current prop market offers another view of his expected workload. His outs line is 17.5, with the over at -144, and his strikeout total is 5.5. Recording 18 outs would take him through six innings, something Texas would welcome after using five relievers in Saturday’s 6-2 victory.
That workload matters even more because Cal Quantrill is awaiting an MRI for lat tightness, Michel Otañez is on the 15-day injured list with an illness, and Joc Pederson is out of Sunday’s lineup with a hand issue. Quantrill exited after only 12 pitches Saturday, leaving the bullpen to handle most of the game.
Toronto needs its contact to become damage
Across their last 10 games, Texas is 6-4 and Toronto is 4-6. The Rangers have also won six of seven overall, a run that moved them into sole possession of the AL West lead.
Still, our projections for hits and total bases don’t show a huge separation in basic contact. Both clubs project for about eight hits. Texas holds a smaller edge in total bases, roughly 12 to 11, suggesting Toronto’s challenge is less about putting a few runners aboard and more about turning that traffic into extra-base damage against deGrom.
Our grades point to a clearer Texas advantage in the field. The Rangers carry an A- defensive grade and a B overall mark, compared with a B defensive grade and B- overall grade for Toronto. The Blue Jays have the slightly better hitting grade, C+ to Texas’ C, giving Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Toronto lineup a plausible route if Miles can keep the game close early.
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How the moneyline fits the matchup
Texas being a substantial home favorite fits the combination of deGrom, the stronger defensive grade and better recent form. The counterweight is the bullpen: if Toronto can extend at-bats and push deGrom out before the late innings, the Rangers may need another meaningful contribution from a relief group that handled most of Saturday’s game.
The total of 7 is shaded toward the over at -123, with the under at +102. That low number puts even more weight on the starters. Six efficient innings from deGrom would give Texas more control over the scoring environment, while early traffic against him would bring the Rangers’ bullpen situation into play much sooner.
Final assessment
Texas has the strongest structural advantages in deGrom, its defense and its recent run. Toronto’s best counter is to turn projected contact into long at-bats and extra-base damage before deGrom can hand over a lead. His workload is the biggest hinge: an efficient six innings would make the Rangers’ favorite case considerably sturdier, while an early exit would magnify Saturday’s heavy bullpen usage.
For the latest available lines, lineups, player markets and matchup analysis, visit the Toronto Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangers matchup.
Odds and projections are snapshots and can change. Wagering involves risk.
