St. Louis and Detroit both won 4-1 on Thursday, but those matching scores tell different stories. Joel Hofer stopped 31 shots and the Blues scored twice on the power play against Boston; Viktor Arvidsson supplied a hat trick for the Red Wings against Chicago. With almost nothing separating Saturday’s moneyline prices, the useful question is whether St. Louis’ recent goaltending can offset Detroit’s stronger attacking outlook.
Two wins with different foundations
St. Louis needed Thursday’s breakthrough. The Blues had been shut out in consecutive losses to Carolina and Montreal before beating Boston. Jimmy Snuggerud’s power-play goal ended a scoreless stretch of 138 minutes, 38 seconds, and Robert Thomas and Philip Broberg each finished with a goal and two assists. The four-goal response was encouraging, though two power-play goals were an important part of it.
Detroit’s attack came through Arvidsson, who added an assist to his three goals against Chicago. Alex DeBrincat had two assists, and Lucas Raymond scored on the power play. Arvidsson’s final goal came into an empty net, a useful distinction when weighing that scoring burst. Arvidsson and DeBrincat feature on Detroit’s first line with Emmitt Finnie; Raymond is on the second line.
Both teams have won five of their last 10 games, but Detroit has won five of its last seven. The full-season records are close as well: St. Louis is 6-6-1 and Detroit is 6-4-3. DraftKings makes the Blues a slight moneyline favorite at -115, with the Red Wings at -105. It’s a narrow price difference for a matchup whose most interesting advantages point in opposite directions.
Hofer gives St. Louis a counterweight
Joel Hofer saved 31 of 32 shots against Boston. Across his last five appearances, he has stopped 158 of 171 shots for a .924 save percentage. That includes a 35-save outing against Carolina in which he still allowed four goals, so his recent workload hasn’t always translated into a low-scoring game.
John Gibson saved 18 of 19 shots against Chicago and also stopped a penalty shot, but his save percentage across his last five appearances is .883. One of those outings lasted 40 minutes and involved just five shots, which makes the individual games worth keeping in view alongside the combined rate. Hofer has the stronger recent save percentage; Gibson’s latest start was better than his five-appearance figure.
Our grades give Detroit the stronger attack, C against St. Louis’ D+, while both teams receive a B- defensive grade. Taken together, the team grades and goalie form leave a more balanced matchup than either the latest four-goal wins or the save percentages alone would suggest. St. Louis also has an availability item to watch: Lou Korac of NHL.com reported that Colton Parayko missed Friday’s practice with an upper-body injury but was considered probable for Saturday against Detroit. Parayko plays on the Blues’ second defensive pair.
Sharpest Bets Premium
Get our Blues vs. Red Wings picks.
Unlock our model's best bets for this matchup, plus projections, trends, and matchup analysis. Start with a free 7-day trial, then save 20% every month with code PREVIEW20.
Special teams matter at 5.5
St. Louis’ last three games have gone Under, but seven of each team’s 13 games this season have gone Over. The short streak reflects two Blues shutouts followed by Thursday’s 4-1 win; it shouldn’t erase how different the scoring picture looked once St. Louis converted its power plays.
At a total of 5.5, the Blues’ ability to sustain that offensive recovery is central. Hofer’s recent results provide a restraint on Detroit, while Gibson’s uneven five-appearance record gives St. Louis a route beyond the scoring drought. Our projections put Detroit at about 29 shots and St. Louis at about 26, with roughly three power-play opportunities for each. That’s a modest shooting advantage for the Red Wings, rather than a reason to expect an overwhelming volume gap. The recent power-play goals on both sides make those opportunities particularly worth watching.
Detroit brings the better attacking grade and stronger recent run; St. Louis counters with Hofer’s steadier recent save rate. The Blues’ offensive rebound is the factor that most needs to hold up for their slight-favorite status to feel convincing.
We break down every matchup
See the NHL betting board for odds and model projections across the league, with sharp picks available through Premium.
Odds and projections are snapshots and can change. Wagering involves risk.
More matchups to explore
Unlock our Premium picks. Free.
Get our sharpest picks, team grades, and projected score in your inbox.