St. Louis has scored 12 goals in its past two games, giving Minnesota something to think about ahead of Thursday’s matchup. But the Wild offer a different test: their expected goalie, Jesper Wallstedt, has stopped 93% of the shots he’s faced in his last five appearances, and our analysis gives Minnesota the stronger attack. That puts the Blues’ scoring surge under scrutiny—and makes Joel Hofer’s ability to keep pace at the other end just as important.
The Blues have more than one source of scoring
St. Louis followed a 5-3 win over Columbus with a 7-2 win at Ottawa on Tuesday. Pius Suter, Jake Neighbours and Mason McTavish each scored twice against the Senators. That spread of scoring matters: the Blues didn’t need one player to account for most of their production. Ottawa was also playing the second night of a back-to-back, a reason to be careful about carrying that seven-goal performance straight into this matchup.
Those two straight wins represent a sharp change from the three games before them, when St. Louis scored just five goals combined. Our grades also favor Minnesota’s attack, B+ to D+. The recent outburst gives the Blues a credible way to challenge the Wild, but it’s a short stretch to lean on when assessing their ability to trade goals.
Minnesota has its own scoring threat in Kirill Kaprizov, who scored both Wild goals in Tuesday’s 5-2 loss at Winnipeg. That result came with Calvin Pickard in net, so it isn’t a reflection of Wallstedt’s recent work.
Minnesota’s moneyline case—and what complicates the price
The DraftKings moneyline makes Minnesota a -148 favorite, with St. Louis at +124. Our shot projections give the Wild an advantage in volume, at roughly 29 shots to the Blues’ 25. That points to more work for the opposing goalie, although the number of shots alone doesn’t tell us how dangerous they’ll be.
Joel Hofer is the main counterweight. The expected St. Louis goalie has a .920 save percentage in his last four appearances, including a 25-save shutout against Dallas. Wallstedt’s .930 mark comes over five appearances. Those recent goalie performances give this matchup a more interesting shape than simply favoring the stronger attack: the Blues have a plausible path through Hofer keeping the game close, though both samples are small.
Sharpest Bets Premium
Get our Blues vs. Wild picks.
Unlock our model's best bets for this matchup, plus projections, trends, and matchup analysis. Start with a free 7-day trial, then save 20% every month with code PREVIEW20.
A 5.5-goal total puts the scoring burst in perspective
The posted total is 5.5, and St. Louis’ recent production supplies a clear reason to consider a higher-scoring game. Minnesota has also scored four goals in three of its last five games, so the scoring case isn’t just about the Blues repeating their Ottawa performance. The Wild’s expected shot advantage adds another source of pressure on Hofer.
The strongest counterweight is the expected goalie pairing. Wallstedt has allowed no more than three goals in any of his last five appearances, while Hofer has allowed seven goals across his last four. Those performances make it harder to treat the Blues’ seven-goal night as the new baseline. At 5.5, St. Louis sustaining its recent scoring against Wallstedt matters more than the Ottawa score by itself.
Minnesota’s stronger attacking grade and expected shot edge give it a clear matchup advantage, but Hofer’s recent work complicates the case for paying the favorite’s price. The Blues don’t necessarily need another scoring outburst to stay competitive if he holds up. For the total, the more demanding test is whether their wider spread of scoring survives the step from Ottawa to Wallstedt. That’s the useful distinction here: St. Louis has shown it can score in bunches, but repeating that production against this goalie is a separate challenge.
We break down every matchup
For sharp picks, current odds and matchup projections across the league, explore our NHL betting board.
Odds and projections are snapshots and can change. Wagering involves risk.
More matchups to explore
Unlock our Premium picks. Free.
Get our sharpest picks, team grades, and projected score in your inbox.