Boise State blew a 25-point halftime lead against Texas State and still won. Colorado State fell behind 17–0 at Utah State and never caught up. On Saturday, the Rams need to give their defense some rest and put points on the board before Boise State can build that kind of lead.
Colorado State needs to stay on the field early
The Rams had 67 total yards and minus-5 rushing yards at halftime of their 31–14 loss at Utah State. They got their first touchdown on a 10-play, 75-yard drive, but by then the Aggies had already scored three rushing touchdowns, according to the Associated Press recap. If Durell Robinson and the Rams can run well enough on early downs to keep drives going, they can give Boise State fewer chances to build the kind of lead Utah State did.
DraftKings had Boise State favored by 17.5, at 6:32 p.m. ET Wednesday. The Broncos have won seven straight, but Texas State scored the first 36 points of the second half before Boise State won 46–45. Max Cutforth threw three late touchdowns after Maddux Madsen left injured. One of the late scoring chances came after Mana Tuioti returned an interception to the Texas State 11, per the AP recap. Boise State can score in a hurry when a turnover gives it a short field. The Rams can keep the margin within 17 if they protect the ball and keep putting together drives after halftime.
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At 68.5, the Rams’ contribution matters
DraftKings had the over at −115 and the under at −105 in the same snapshot. Seven of Colorado State’s eight games and six of Boise State’s eight have gone over their own lines. Saturday’s total is a higher bar than many of those games faced. The Rams’ 56–49 win over San Diego State clears that number easily. Their loss to Utah State finished at 45. Boise State’s 31–10 win at Washington State offers another example of how a comfortable win can stay well below this number.
Watch whether the Rams can get across midfield on their first few possessions. If Boise State keeps getting the ball back quickly while the Rams stall, the Broncos can build a big margin without the total getting to 69. If Colorado State can finish drives of its own, it has a better chance to keep the spread close and force Boise State to keep scoring.
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