Tampa Bay just won a game without completing a pass. Chicago just won in Seattle by making the Seahawks struggle to sustain almost anything. That sets up an unusually clear question for their Sunday night meeting: can Bucky Irving and Kenny Gainwell keep the Buccaneers moving against a Bears front that got an immediate lift from Jeffery Simmons?
Chicago’s pressure meets Tampa Bay’s answer on the ground
The DraftKings spread makes Chicago a six-point favorite. The Bears have won their last three games, scoring at least 30 points in each, and stand at 6–2. Tampa Bay is 3–5 but has won three of its last four. The records explain Chicago’s stronger position; the Buccaneers’ recent rushing success gives the matchup more substance than those records alone.
In AP’s recap of Tampa Bay’s 16–0 win over Atlanta, Irving ran for 170 yards and Gainwell added 140. The Buccaneers finished with a team-record 324 rushing yards while Baker Mayfield went 0 for 3 in driving rain. That was an extraordinary solution to a particular afternoon’s conditions, rather than a passing performance to judge in isolation.
Our team rushing projection calls for roughly 151 Tampa Bay yards against Chicago. That’s less than half last week’s record total, with the ground game still expected to supply a substantial part of the offense. If Chicago keeps Irving and Gainwell from producing steady gains, Mayfield will need to do considerably more with his arm to keep drives alive.
The Thursday practice update listed Tristan Wirfs as not participating because of his toe injury. It doesn’t settle his Sunday availability, but his status matters to an offense leaning heavily on its blocking and backs.
The Bears’ latest defensive performance supplies the challenge. According to AP’s account of Chicago’s 34–17 win in Seattle, Simmons recorded a sack, another tackle for loss and three pressures in his Bears debut. Seattle managed 252 total yards, 81 on the ground and just one conversion in 11 third-down attempts. Now Chicago faces a different test: stopping a Tampa Bay offense that just kept running successfully even when it barely attempted to pass.
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Williams gives the Bears another way to control the game
Caleb Williams also did his part in Seattle, throwing for 247 yards, completing 71% of his passes and avoiding turnovers. D’Andre Swift finished three short touchdown runs. Chicago didn’t need its quarterback to rescue a game its defense had allowed to get away.
There was still a moment of danger. A Colston Loveland fumble helped Seattle cut the lead to three in the fourth quarter before the Bears answered. For Tampa Bay, disrupting Chicago’s possessions could be just as valuable as generating a long drive of its own. Tampa Bay would have less room to lean on the run if it spent the night chasing an expanding deficit.
Tampa Bay’s defense supplies a counterweight to Chicago’s momentum: it allowed 13 points to Carolina before shutting out Atlanta. Four Michael Penix Jr. interceptions helped produce that shutout. Williams avoided those giveaways in Seattle, but the Loveland fumble showed that Tampa Bay could find opportunities elsewhere. An extra possession or a short field would ease the work asked of Mayfield.
The total hinges on how the possessions end
Chicago’s last three games have all gone Over their stored totals. Tampa Bay’s last two show a much wider range: 56 combined points against Carolina, then 16 against Atlanta. The Atlanta result came in driving rain, making it a very different reference point from Tampa Bay’s win at Carolina.
At a total of 47.5, the key question is whether Tampa Bay’s rushing produces touchdowns, long possessions ending in field goals, or repeated third-down problems. Sustained rushing could keep the Buccaneers competitive while taking time off the clock. Early Chicago scores or takeaway-created opportunities could instead force a more open game. The Bears’ recent scoring run supports that possibility, while their latest defensive effort shows why scoring may be uneven between the teams.
Chicago’s best route to separation is to combine early scoring with the kind of third-down stops it produced in Seattle. That would make it harder for Tampa Bay to stay patient with its backs. If the Buccaneers keep gaining on the ground and find another takeaway or two, they can make the Bears earn a much tighter game. The important test is how often Tampa Bay can finish drives, rather than whether it can reproduce an extraordinary rushing total.
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