Bucknell vs. Virginia preview: Can the Bison make their stops count?

Bucknell trailed Old Dominion by a point at halftime Saturday and lost by 20. Luca Soroa had four steals in the 82–62 loss, but a few disrupted possessions didn’t keep the Bison close for 40 minutes. Against a Virginia team that just put five players in double figures, the Bison need to turn those stops into points before the Cavaliers can set their defense.

Getting the stop is only half the job

Virginia showed how quickly it can pull away in Sunday’s 91–72 win over Arkansas. Johann Grunloh and Sam Lewis dunked on consecutive possessions late in the first half, then Chance Mallory hit a three to put the Cavaliers up 19. Lewis and Thijs De Ridder led the team with 16 apiece. Bucknell has to finish possessions even when Virginia’s leading scorers give up the ball.

That makes the glass a good place to start. Our rebounding projections put Virginia at about 40 total boards and Bucknell at 29. Watch which misses Virginia collects. On the defensive glass, the Cavaliers can take away second chances from a team that scored 62 against Old Dominion and 67 at Maryland. On the offensive glass, they can make Bucknell defend the same possession twice.

DraftKings had Virginia favored by 38.5 points. The Cavaliers have won by 29, 25 and 19. Bucknell’s 29-point loss at Maryland still stayed inside that game’s spread. Virginia has shown it can build a comfortable lead, but the Bison can give up plenty and still stay within Tuesday’s number if they score often enough after their stops.

How much scoring does Virginia have to do?

All three Virginia games and both Bucknell games this season went over their own totals. At DraftKings’ 152.5, the distinction is how much the other team contributes. Virginia’s 89–60 win over Drexel cleared that game’s 142.5 but would have stayed below Tuesday’s line. Its 97–72 win over Northeastern cleared both numbers.

A steal that sends Bucknell the other way can help on both fronts. It gives the Bison a chance to cut into the margin and puts points toward the total without Virginia having to supply them. If Virginia keeps taking away those easy chances and finishes its stops with rebounds, it can pull away while leaving most of the scoring to its own offense.

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