Buffalo has leaned on Messiah Burch for five straight 100-yard rushing games, and he’s coming off a career-best performance. Miami (Ohio) is a six-point favorite at home, with our projections giving the RedHawks the stronger team rushing outlook. Whether Buffalo can keep getting the big runs Burch has delivered is a key challenge to Miami’s chances of building that margin.
Miami’s edge is in yards per carry
Our rushing projections put both teams at about 35 or 36 carries, with Miami closer to 155 rushing yards and Buffalo around 105. At similar workloads, that’s roughly a yard and a half more per carry for Miami. That difference matters to the spread because it gives the RedHawks a route to more manageable downs and longer drives. Caleb Heavner gave Miami another way to pick up yards on the ground in its 28–27 win over Central Michigan on Oct. 24, running for 58 yards, including a 27-yard touchdown.
Buffalo’s counter is Burch’s ability to turn one carry into a big change in field position. He ran for a career-high 184 yards and three touchdowns in the 31–24 win over Bowling Green that same day, including a 73-yard score that stretched the lead to 10 in the fourth quarter. His recent production gives Buffalo a real way to stay close, especially if it can keep Miami from putting together a run of scoring drives. The Bulls have also covered the spread in four straight games, a stretch that includes both favorite and underdog roles.
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Big plays can change the outlook at 44.5
Both teams’ last games finished with 55 points, and the way they got there matters at DraftKings’ 44.5 total. Burch’s long touchdown let Buffalo score without needing a sustained drive. Miami’s game included a Central Michigan interception return for a touchdown, and Heavner later hit Maleek Huggins for 27 yards on the winning drive. Those are different scoring ingredients: explosive offense can shorten the route to points, while a defensive touchdown can lift a total without showing that either offense consistently moved the ball.
Six of Miami’s eight games this season have gone over their posted totals, adding some scoring context beyond its latest result. Buffalo offers a counterweight: across its last four games, it has held three opponents to 20 or fewer points, including eight against Toledo. At 44.5, Miami’s projected rushing efficiency and the recent explosive plays make a higher-scoring game plausible. Buffalo’s ability to force longer drives is the clearest reason not to treat those two 55-point finishes as the template.
First-down rushing is the most useful thing to watch. Miami’s stronger projected efficiency gives it a plausible path to manageable passing situations and sustained drives—the kind of repeatable offense that could help it build a margin. Burch’s recent production is the main challenge to that case: another long run could keep Buffalo close without requiring as many productive possessions. The distinction matters for the total, too: steady gains can keep drives alive, while quick strikes or another defensive score could change the scoring outlook much faster.
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