Kawhi Leonard’s return gives Toronto’s season opener plenty of intrigue, but the betting question goes beyond whether the Raptors look stronger than Chicago. Toronto is a 10.5-point favorite, putting a substantial winning margin into the price. Our projections point to a useful contrast: the Raptors have the edge in assists and ball security, while Chicago has a modest rebounding advantage that could help it stay competitive.
Toronto’s advantage comes with a demanding price
Leonard rejoins a roster led by Scottie Barnes, while Chicago begins a rebuild under new coach Tiago Splitter, with rookie Caleb Wilson joining its young core. Those changes give this season opener a different feel from last season’s matchup.
In our projections, Toronto has about 33 assists compared with 27 for Chicago, alongside roughly 13 Raptors turnovers and 15 for the Bulls. That combination points to more scoring through ball movement while giving fewer possessions away. It’s a meaningful advantage when the favorite needs separation rather than simply a win.
Chicago’s counterweight is on the glass. We project about 44 rebounds for the Bulls to Toronto’s 42. That’s a modest edge, and total rebounds alone don’t establish an advantage in second-chance opportunities. Still, it gives Chicago something to work with in a matchup where our overall grades favor Toronto, B to D+.
Why 237.5 deserves a closer look
DraftKings’ total of 237.5 puts the scoring outlook under a different lens. Toronto’s projected assist production and Chicago’s D- defensive grade support the possibility of a productive Raptors attack. Leonard also brings a prominent scoring presence: his sportsbook 25.5-point scoring line is the highest among the starters on either team.
The counterweight is Chicago’s contribution. We grade the Bulls’ offense C and Toronto’s defense B, so the matchup doesn’t present equally favorable scoring conditions for both sides. A strong Toronto performance could create separation without necessarily producing a high-scoring night at both ends.
Sharpest Bets Premium
Get our Bulls vs. Raptors picks.
Unlock our model's best bets for this matchup, plus projections, trends, and matchup analysis. Start with a free 7-day trial, then save 20% every month with code PREVIEW20.
There’s also some useful historical tension. Over the past year, 52 of 89 Raptors games finished Under, returning 10.29 units from flat one-unit Under bets. That history provides context rather than a shortcut to evaluating this opener, especially with Leonard returning and Chicago changing direction. The more relevant question at 237.5 is how much Chicago can generate against the stronger defensive unit.
What matters most
Toronto has the stronger profile, particularly if its projected advantages in assists and turnovers show up on the floor. Chicago’s modest rebounding edge offers a counterweight, but the Bulls still need enough productive possessions against a defense we rate well. For bettors weighing both the spread and total, Chicago’s ability to sustain its scoring is the key overlap: it affects how comfortably Toronto can pull away and how much support the favorite gets toward a sizable total.
We break down every matchup
For sharp picks, current odds and model projections across the league’s games, take a look at our NBA betting board.
Odds and projections are snapshots and can change. Wagering involves risk.
More matchups to explore
Unlock our Premium picks. Free.
Get our sharpest picks, team grades, and projected score in your inbox.