Montreal has won its last three games while allowing only two goals in total. Noah Dobson put two shots on net in the win over Chicago, one against Winnipeg and two in the shutout of St. Louis. That combination gives Canadiens backers two different places to look for support: a modest shot requirement from Montreal’s defense, or a Dallas player finishing without the scoring contribution his market requires.
For these Canadiens parlay picks, the starting point is a hypothetical Montreal win over the Stars. Dobson’s one-shot offer has been similarly consistent across Montreal wins and his full appearance history. The Dallas unders tell a different story: Thomas Harley has gone without a point, and Roope Hintz without an assist, more often in losses than across all of their appearances.
This Side & Support edition compares three individual DraftKings offers around that Montreal-win scenario. The Canadiens are +140 in the matchup snapshot, while the player prices were checked separately this afternoon. Choosing one contribution is different from combining all three; the table is a menu of options, rather than a quoted same-game parlay.
Three ways to support a Canadiens win
Dobson’s one-shot milestone is the consistency option. Thomas Harley under 0.5 points and Roope Hintz under 0.5 assists have shown a larger difference between Dallas losses and their full appearance histories. Those distinctions matter: one option asks for a single Montreal shot on target, another needs a Dallas defenseman to finish without a goal or assist, and the third still allows Hintz to score himself.
The records use each player’s appearances for his current club from September 1, 2025, through October 27, 2026. Games without actual ice time are excluded; real scoreless appearances remain included. The conditional column means Montreal wins for Dobson and Dallas losses for Harley and Hintz; the all-games column uses the same participation rules and dates. Regular-season and playoff appearances are included, and the smaller current-season records are discussed below.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Dobson 1+ shot on goal |
−450 | 86.7% 52 of 60 Montreal wins |
86.7% 91 of 105 Montreal appearances |
| Thomas Harley Under 0.5 points |
−160 | 86.8% 33 of 38 Dallas losses |
61.4% 54 of 88 Dallas appearances |
| Roope Hintz Under 0.5 assists |
−165 | 85.2% 23 of 27 Dallas losses |
63.1% 41 of 65 Dallas appearances |
Noah Dobson: 1+ shot on goal at −450
Dobson recorded at least one shot on goal in 52 of 60 Montreal wins (86.7%), compared with 91 of 105 Montreal appearances overall (86.7%). The identical rates make this a consistency case, rather than evidence that winning materially lifts his chance of reaching the milestone. It earns consideration because the requirement is small and his recent participation supports it.
He has reached one shot in all 12 appearances this season, including all seven Montreal wins. His last three outings brought two shots in 19:48 against Chicago, one in 19:25 against Winnipeg and two in 19:35 against St. Louis. The current lineup lists him on Montreal’s first defense pair. That is an expected assignment, rather than a promise about Thursday’s minutes, but the recent game logs show an established role rather than a token appearance.
The step up to 2+ shots costs −105, a much less expensive individual price. It is also a substantially different historical ask: Dobson reached two shots in 32 of 60 Montreal wins (53.3%) and 61 of 105 appearances overall (58.1%). This season he has eight such games in 12 appearances. His one-shot outing against Winnipeg is a useful reminder of how a successful night for Montreal can satisfy the lower milestone and miss the higher one.
The −450 price leaves little extra return for taking that lower requirement. It has also failed in real wins: Dobson had no shots while playing 22:08 in Montreal’s April 4 win over New Jersey and no shots in 18:37 in the May 3 playoff win at Tampa Bay. Choose this route only if the modest shot threshold is worth its price to you; neither a Montreal win nor substantial ice time guarantees a shot on net.
Thomas Harley: Under 0.5 points at −160
Harley finished without a point in 33 of 38 Dallas losses (86.8%), against 54 of 88 Dallas appearances overall (61.4%). That is the clearest conditional separation of these three options. A goal or an assist defeats the under, so this is a broader restriction on his offense than asking him to go without an assist alone.
His current season gives the larger record some immediate support: Harley has no point in all five Dallas losses, compared with seven of 12 appearances overall. In the latest 5–1 loss to New Jersey, he had no points while playing 26:40. His earlier losses to Pittsburgh and Colorado also produced no points despite more than 25 minutes of ice time. These are substantive appearances, not zeros generated by absence or a player barely entering a game.
There is counterevidence just as close by. Harley assisted on a goal in the October 25 win over the Islanders and has five assists across his 12 current-season appearances. He remains listed on the first defense pair, with Dallas also listing Esa Lindell on injured reserve and Kyle Capobianco out. That role supplies ample opportunity to take part in an attack. His past losing games also include a two-assist performance against New Jersey on March 24, when he played 23:07, and an assist against the Islanders two days later in 25:11. Dallas can lose while Harley still gets involved in a goal.
The comparable under 0.5 assists is −215. It hit in the same 33 of 38 losses (86.8%), but in 57 of 88 appearances overall (64.8%). At these prices, the points under offers the less expensive way to express the scoreless-Harley scenario, in exchange for also losing if he scores a goal. Its stronger historical separation from the all-games baseline makes it more connected to this premise than Dobson’s near-routine one-shot requirement. That descriptive difference does not by itself prove value at −160.
Roope Hintz: Under 0.5 assists at −165
Hintz had no assist in 23 of 27 Dallas losses (85.2%) and 41 of 65 Dallas appearances overall (63.1%). The current-season counts are five of five losses and nine of 12 appearances overall. The losing-game sample is smaller than Harley’s. Even so, the assist market supplies a useful distinction without requiring the reader to rule out every form of Hintz offense.
That distinction already appeared this season. Hintz scored in the October 13 loss to Colorado while recording no assist. The assist under succeeded; a no-point bet would have failed. He played 13:13 without a point in the latest loss to New Jersey, following two assists in 16:17 in the 6–3 win over the Islanders. The latest loss fits the option, while the preceding win shows that his passing production is still present.
Hintz is listed as Dallas’s first-line center, so this is not a wager on a player being shut out of the lineup. He had an assist in a 5–4 loss to San Jose on January 10 while playing 16:43, and another in Dallas’s 4–3 overtime loss to Montreal on January 4 in 19:03. Those losing-game misses belong alongside the favorable record, particularly when evaluating a player whose usual role provides chances to set up teammates.
The alternative under 0.5 points is +130, but it reached only 18 of 27 Dallas losses (66.7%) and 25 of 65 appearances overall (38.5%). Its larger potential return comes with a materially more demanding outcome. The assist under is the useful distinction here: it keeps a Hintz goal from automatically defeating the leg, while still expressing the reduced setup production seen in many Dallas losses.
Which option fits your Montreal-win scenario?
Dobson’s one-shot milestone has the most consistent current-season occurrence record, but its −450 price buys very little extra return and its historical rate is identical in Montreal wins and all appearances. Harley’s points under and Hintz’s assist under cost less individually and show larger differences in Dallas losses. Harley needs to finish entirely without a point; Hintz can score and still satisfy the assist under.
The two Dallas unders share exposure to the same offense, and an assisted Dallas goal can affect both. Their separate records should not be multiplied into a combined success probability. You can choose the requirement that best matches your view of the game without automatically adding every qualifying option. Montreal is also listed without Nick Suzuki, so its latest winning run should not substitute for checking Thursday’s available lineup and prices.
Follow the live Canadiens–Stars matchup for the current game snapshot, and browse the latest NHL articles for more matchup analysis. All quoted prices are individual DraftKings offers from this check; a sportsbook may price or restrict a same-game combination differently.
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