Montreal brings the sharper recent goaltending into St. Louis, but the Blues are still slight favorites. That tension makes this matchup interesting: can St. Louis generate enough against a Canadiens team that has allowed just one goal in each of its past two games? With a 6.5-goal total on the board, there’s also a real contrast between the teams’ high-scoring season histories and their latest results.
A small favorite, not a clear separation
DraftKings’ current moneylines have St. Louis at -122 and Montreal at +102. That’s a modest preference for the Blues, and neither team has been piling up wins: Montreal is 5-5 over its last 10 games, while St. Louis is 4-6.
Our grades give Montreal the stronger attack, a B compared with St. Louis’ C-, while both teams receive a B- defensively. That makes the Canadiens’ attack an important counterweight to the Blues’ favorite status, rather than a reason to take the home price at face value.
Montreal beat Chicago 4-1 on Friday, then held off Winnipeg 2-1 outdoors on Sunday. Cole Caufield assisted on both goals against the Jets, while Jacob Fowler stopped 33 shots. The Canadiens have found two different ways to win on this trip: a comfortable scoring margin in Chicago and a much tighter finish in Winnipeg.
The goalie comparison matters at 6.5
Jacob Fowler and Joel Hofer are the expected goalies. Across his five most recent appearances this season, Fowler has a .937 save percentage and has allowed eight goals. Hofer has a .911 save percentage across his last five appearances, with 14 goals allowed. Fowler’s latest two outings were especially strong: 53 saves on 55 shots.
Hofer’s most recent result needs some context, too. He made 35 saves on 39 shots as Carolina beat St. Louis 4-0 on Saturday. The Blues’ problem wasn’t only what happened in their own crease; they were shut out after scoring six against Vegas in their previous game.
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Our shot projections call for roughly 26 shots apiece here. That points to similar shooting volume, with a lighter workload for Hofer than the 39 shots he faced against Carolina. Alongside Fowler’s recent form and St. Louis’ lower attacking grade, that expected volume gives some reason for restraint at a total of 6.5.
The counterweight is substantial: seven of each team’s 11 games this season have gone over their respective sportsbook totals. Montreal’s stronger attacking grade adds to the scoring case, and St. Louis’ six-goal performance against Vegas shows why its latest shutout shouldn’t define the outlook. Those earlier totals varied, so that history is useful background rather than a direct answer to today’s number.
What deserves the most weight?
The Blues’ ability to rebound at the attacking end is the hinge of this matchup. Their favorite status sits alongside a weaker attacking grade and a difficult recent comparison in net, but the swing from six goals against Vegas to none against Carolina makes a one-game judgment risky. At 6.5, the season’s over-heavy results and Montreal’s stronger attack deserve weight; Fowler’s recent play and the balanced shot projections push back. The most useful distinction is between St. Louis rediscovering its scoring touch and simply expecting another high-volume game like the one Hofer faced Saturday.
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