Arizona moved the ball into the red zone five times against Denver and came away with just one touchdown. Dallas, meanwhile, got three touchdown passes from Dak Prescott and a career-best rushing night from Javonte Williams in Philadelphia. With the Cowboys favored by seven and the total at 54.5, this matchup turns on whether the Cardinals can make their offensive opportunities count while slowing an attack that just found several ways to score.
Dallas has a strong offensive case, with consistency still to prove
Williams rushed for 155 yards and a touchdown in Monday’s 38-21 win over the Eagles. Dallas finished with 204 rushing yards, while Prescott threw for 212 yards and three scores. CeeDee Lamb caught two of those touchdown passes and George Pickens caught the other.
That balance is the encouraging part for the Cowboys. They didn’t need a huge passing-yardage total to finish drives, and Williams gave them substantial production on the ground. Our assessment gives the Dallas offense an A grade against Arizona’s C defense. We project about 121 team rushing yards for the Cowboys compared with 89 for the Cardinals, a more restrained ground outlook than Dallas delivered Monday but still a useful part of its advantage.
One strong night hasn’t erased the uneven results. Dallas scored 13 at Green Bay and 16 against Tampa Bay in its two preceding games. Pickens was also limited in Wednesday’s practice with shoulder and hamstring issues. His work leading up to Sunday deserves attention after he contributed a touchdown in Philadelphia.
Arizona needs to turn useful passing into touchdowns
Jacoby Brissett threw for 272 yards in Sunday’s 30-16 loss to Denver, and Trey McBride caught 10 passes for 111 yards and a touchdown. Those numbers show Arizona had a productive passing connection. But the Cardinals went 5 of 17 on third down, and their one-touchdown return from five red-zone visits explains why that yardage produced only 16 points. A dropped potential touchdown pass on third down forced Arizona to settle for a field goal earlier in the game.
The defense made the task harder by allowing a 62-yard touchdown run to Bo Nix and a 52-yard scoring reception to RJ Harvey. Those costly plays matter against a Dallas offense coming off success through both the air and the ground. Arizona’s path to a competitive game starts with reducing those breakdowns and getting more from the chances Brissett and McBride help create.
The Cardinals’ backfield is another concern to follow. Coach Mike LaFleur said Jeremiyah Love would practice on a limited basis Wednesday because of his ankle; Love had missed the Denver game. Tyler Allgeier did not practice Wednesday with a toe issue, and receiver Michael Wilson was limited with sore ribs. These are practice updates, with Sunday availability still to be determined.
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Scoring history gives the total context, not an automatic answer
Dallas games have gone Over in 12 of 16 games over the past year, producing a historical profit of 6.73 units from flat one-unit bets on the Over. That helps explain why scoring deserves close attention here, although those results came against their own posted totals.
At 54.5, the current total asks plenty from this particular matchup. Dallas’ balanced performance and Arizona’s recent big-play concessions support a lively scoring picture. Both defenses receive C grades in our assessment, and the Cardinals have a proven recent outlet in McBride. But Arizona’s stalled scoring chances, its backfield practice concerns and Dallas’ earlier low-output games are meaningful obstacles to projecting Monday’s Cowboys performance straight forward.
Dallas has the stronger offensive foundation for building a lead. Arizona’s passing production gives it a route to respond, but improving its red-zone finish is the clearest requirement for making this a sustained contest. For bettors considering either the margin or the total, the important distinction is whether Arizona’s yardage starts becoming touchdowns while Dallas keeps its ground game involved.
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