Dallas comes home after three touchdown passes from Dak Prescott and 155 rushing yards from Javonte Williams in a 38–21 win at Philadelphia. An Arizona upset view has to take that recent production seriously. The useful question is which Dallas requirements have tended to change in defeats, alongside a receiving target Trey McBride can reach for the Cardinals.
These Cardinals parlay picks compare McBride at fifty receiving yards, Prescott under 2.5 passing touchdowns and Williams under 17.5 carries around your view that Arizona can beat Dallas. Arizona is 2–5 after losing to Denver; Dallas is 3–4 after its Monday-night win. You can choose the contribution that fits your upset view without needing every option together.
Cardinals parlay picks: McBride’s yards and two Dallas unders
These records cover August 1, 2025 through October 31, 2026 with each player’s current club. McBride is measured in Cardinals wins; Prescott and Williams are measured in Cowboys losses. Each all-game comparison uses the same dates, team and participation rule: a target for McBride, a passing attempt for Prescott or a carry for Williams. Genuine zeroes and shortened appearances remain included. Dallas’ tie stays in the all-game records, outside the Cowboys-loss columns.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride 50+ receiving yards |
−374 | 100.0% 5 of 5 ARI wins |
79.2% 19 of 24 appearances |
| Dak Prescott Under 2.5 passing touchdowns |
−147 | 92.3% 12 of 13 DAL losses |
70.8% 17 of 24 appearances |
| Javonte Williams Under 17.5 carries |
−109 | 91.7% 11 of 12 DAL losses |
65.2% 15 of 23 appearances |
These individual DraftKings prices were captured November 1 and can change. McBride’s five winning appearances are a small sample; Williams has cleared in three of four Dallas losses this season, a weaker record than his longer history. The percentages describe past games, not a future parlay’s probability.
Trey McBride — 50+ receiving yards (−374)
McBride has reached fifty receiving yards in all five Cardinals wins among his twenty-four targeted appearances across last season and this one. His overall record is nineteen of twenty-four. This season, he’s cleared in both Arizona wins and five of seven appearances, giving the longer record some current support without adding many winning games to judge.
The fifty-yard threshold keeps two modest winning performances that sixty would lose. McBride had fifty-five yards in last year’s win at Dallas and fifty-three in the recent 18–16 win over the Rams. Sixty yards at −215 has cleared in three of the five wins and fifteen of twenty-four appearances overall. Fifty preserves those contributions; it doesn’t require him to repeat his ninety-five-yard opening win over the Chargers.
Forty yards at −730 has the same five winning clears as fifty, with three more overall clears: twenty-two of twenty-four. The extra games came in defeats. Fifty costs less while retaining the winning-game record, although −374 is still a substantial individual price. The main over 73.5 receiving yards at −111 has cleared in two of five wins and eleven of twenty-four appearances, a much different requirement.
McBride’s recent involvement gives the lower target a useful basis. He caught seven passes for fifty-three yards on nine targets in the Rams win, then ten for 111 on thirteen targets against Denver. That latest production came in a loss, so his receiving contribution alone doesn’t establish the Arizona result.
There have also been busy days that missed fifty. McBride had seven catches for thirty-one yards on twelve targets against the Giants and eight for forty-one on ten targets against Seattle this season. Both were losses, but they show why counting targets isn’t enough to call the yardage line safe. He’s the expected leading tight end with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback; the offense also has Michael Wilson and Kendrick Bourne to target. His seven current appearances have all drawn at least nine targets, an observation about usage rather than a guaranteed allocation for Sunday.
Dak Prescott — under 2.5 passing touchdowns (−147)
Prescott has thrown two or fewer touchdown passes in twelve of thirteen Cowboys defeats among his twenty-four passing appearances across the two seasons. The all-game record is seventeen of twenty-four. All four Dallas losses this season have stayed under, while five of seven games overall have done so.
Those four losing performances brought two touchdown passes against the Giants and one each against Baltimore, Tampa Bay and Green Bay. The requirement leaves room for Dallas to score through the air; it asks Prescott to stay below a three-touchdown passing game. His own rushing touchdowns wouldn’t count toward passing touchdowns.
The latest game is the obvious challenge. Prescott threw three touchdowns against Philadelphia on twenty-seven attempts and 212 passing yards. He also threw four in the win over Washington earlier this season. A modest passing-yard total doesn’t protect a touchdown under if the completions produce scores, and both winning-game misses remain in the overall record.
Nor has every defeat stayed below three. Prescott threw three touchdown passes in the 30–27 loss at Carolina in October 2025, the sole losing-game miss in this sample. The opposite over 2.5 is +115; it has cleared in one of thirteen Dallas defeats and seven of twenty-four appearances overall. That’s the price-and-result comparison behind considering the under for an Arizona-win premise, rather than an assumption that Dallas will be shut down.
Prescott is the expected starting quarterback, with CeeDee Lamb leading the receiving group. George Pickens is questionable with shoulder and hamstring concerns, and KaVontae Turpin is out with a rib injury. Those statuses matter to Dallas’ available receivers, but Pickens’ designation doesn’t confirm his absence or establish a touchdown total. Keep the latest three-touchdown game beside the strong losing-game record when deciding whether −147 fits your view.
Javonte Williams — under 17.5 carries (−109)
Williams has finished with seventeen or fewer carries in eleven of twelve Cowboys losses among his twenty-three rushing appearances with Dallas. His all-game record is fifteen of twenty-three. This season, the figures are three of four losses and four of seven games overall, so the recent losing-game record is weaker than the longer one.
The exception is concrete. Williams had nineteen carries for ninety-eight yards in the 34–31 loss to Baltimore. Dallas lost without moving away from his rushing workload. The other defeats this season brought twelve carries against the Giants, twelve against Tampa Bay and eleven against Green Bay.
The rushing-yard under is a different proposition. Under 75.5 yards is −110 and has cleared in eight of twelve Dallas defeats and twelve of twenty-three appearances overall. The carry under has kept three more losing-game clears at nearly the same individual price. Last year’s meeting with Arizona illustrates one of them: Williams ran for eighty-three yards on fifteen carries in Dallas’ 27–17 defeat. The carry under cleared while the rushing-yard under didn’t.
The contrast also appears in a current Dallas win. Williams had nineteen carries for sixty-two rushing yards against Houston. That would clear under 75.5 rushing yards and miss under 17.5 carries. The carry option is about the number of opportunities, leaving room for a productive run or an efficient rushing day; it isn’t a bet on low yards per carry.
His latest twenty-five carries and 155 yards against Philadelphia underline the risk of simply expecting a repeat of the losing-game workloads. Williams remains the expected lead back, with Tyler Goodson also in the backfield. A Dallas deficit wouldn’t automatically limit his carries, as the Baltimore loss already demonstrates. The appeal of seventeen or fewer is its longer losing-game record and the distinction from the yardage line, with the current three-of-four record kept in view.
Choose the part of the Arizona story you want to support
Start with how you expect Dallas to lose. Prescott’s under still allows two passing touchdowns; Williams’ under asks for a smaller rushing workload and has already missed in one of four Dallas losses this season. If you prefer Arizona receiving production, McBride’s fifty-yard target keeps his fifty-three- and fifty-five-yard wins, but carries the largest individual price here.
The Dallas unders still share an offense and can both respond to the score and pace. McBride can produce in a defeat as well as a win. Use the sportsbook’s actual same-game parlay quote if combining selections; these individual records don’t establish joint odds or independence.
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