Arizona beat the Rams in October on the last of Chad Ryland’s six field goals. Tyler Allgeier carried 18 times that day, and his longest run went for seven yards. With rookie Carson Beck making his first NFL start, that kind of workload is worth a look again.
If you see Arizona winning the rematch, look first at whether it can keep handing Allgeier the ball. Blake Corum’s rushing line reflects what the Cardinals did to the Rams’ ground game last time. Matthew Stafford’s touchdown line leaves room for Los Angeles to answer through the air and still come up short.
Player props for a Cardinals win
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allgeier Over 10.5 rushing attempts |
−116 | 100.0% 3 of 3 ARI wins |
44.4% 4 of 9 games |
| Blake Corum Under 59.5 rushing yards |
−114 | 100.0% 4 of 4 LAR losses |
66.7% 6 of 9 games |
| Matthew Stafford Over 1.5 passing touchdowns |
+101 | 88.9% 8 of 9 LAR losses |
76.9% 20 of 26 games |
Tyler Allgeier over 10.5 rushing attempts
Allgeier had 18 carries for 38 yards in the first Rams game. Even with Bam Knight getting 15 carries that day, Arizona kept going back to Allgeier. He also had 17 carries in the Seattle loss, with Knight sidelined. Knight is back in the mix this week, and Allgeier needed his 11th carry to clear this line in the Dallas win. A game that stays close gives Arizona more room to keep running while Beck settles in.
Blake Corum under 59.5 rushing yards
Arizona held Corum to 42 yards on nine carries. He still scored on a catch, which shows how he can help the Rams without clearing the rushing line. The recent games show the risk. Corum ran for 73 yards on 11 carries against the Chargers, then finished just under this line with 58 on the same workload at Washington. If the Rams lean on their backs with two starting receivers out, Arizona needs to limit his gains as well as his opportunities.
Matthew Stafford over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Stafford threw touchdowns to Colby Parkinson and Corum in the first meeting, with the second coming in the final minute. Puka Nacua and Davante Adams are both out this week, but Stafford has found scores close to the goal line through tight ends and backs. He threw two short touchdowns to Davis Allen against Las Vegas, though Allen is questionable. Stafford has finished with one touchdown pass in each of his last two games, so the +101 price comes with a real question about who can finish those drives.
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What would an Arizona win look like?
Allgeier’s attempts fit if you expect Arizona to stay on schedule and give Beck a manageable first start. Corum’s under fits if you see the Cardinals holding up against the run again. If you expect the Rams to answer with short touchdown throws, Stafford can get to two even if Arizona wins.
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