Arizona found a way back from a two-touchdown fourth-quarter deficit in Dallas. Seattle couldn’t sustain enough offense to keep Chicago from pulling away. Those very different finishes set up a divisional rematch with a shared complication: Gardner Minshew II and Drew Lock are now the listed starting quarterbacks. The question is how much of either team’s recent performance carries over when the players directing the offenses have changed.
Seattle’s favorite status needs a running game
The DraftKings spread favors Seattle by 8.5 points, a substantial margin to ask from a team that has lost three of its last four games. The Seahawks beat Arizona 31–7 in September, but their current situation deserves more attention than that score. Sam Darnold has been ruled out with a quadriceps injury, according to Thursday’s report from ESPN’s Brady Henderson, and Lock is listed as the starter for this matchup.
The problem around the quarterback was visible before that change. In its recap of Seattle’s 34–17 loss to Chicago, AP reported just 81 rushing yards and one successful third down in 11 attempts for the Seahawks. Without a dependable ground game, too many possessions depended on difficult passing situations. Improving that balance would give Lock a more manageable afternoon and help Seattle build the sustained pressure that a large spread asks of a favorite.
Our team rushing projections put Seattle at about 118 yards against roughly 72 for Arizona. Those estimates suggest more help on the ground for Seattle, but the Seahawks still have to produce it after struggling against Chicago. Zach Charbonnet leads Seattle’s running-back depth chart. Longer, steadier drives would give Lock help and make it easier for Seattle to build a lead without relying on difficult passing situations.
Arizona brings explosive plays into the rematch
Tyler Allgeier supplied the biggest reason Arizona escaped Dallas. AP’s account of the Cardinals’ 33–30 overtime win credited him with 147 rushing yards and 44 receiving yards, including a 63-yard touchdown run. Minshew replaced Jacoby Brissett in the third quarter, while Michael Wilson finished with eight catches for 111 yards and the late tying touchdown.
That performance showed Arizona could produce explosive plays and finish a comeback. Allgeier’s individual rushing total against Dallas was more than twice our upcoming projection for the entire Cardinals ground game, which underlines how different the two performances could look. If Arizona struggles to run, Minshew’s ability to keep possessions alive becomes more consequential.
Wilson’s condition matters to that route. The Thursday injury updates included GoPHNX.com’s Bo Brack reporting that Wilson remained in a yellow non-contact jersey because of his ribs. Bam Knight, dealing with a concussion, wasn’t present at Thursday’s practice, according to The Arizona Republic’s Theo Mackie. Neither practice report settles Sunday availability or establishes how much work Allgeier or Wilson will get.
Sharpest Bets Premium
Get our Cardinals vs. Seahawks picks.
Unlock our model's best bets for this matchup, plus projections, trends, and matchup analysis. Start with a free 7-day trial, then save 20% every month with code PREVIEW20.
A low total with competing signals
The total is 39.5. The eight-game samples this season show five Arizona Overs and three Unders, while Seattle’s games have split evenly between Over and Under at their respective totals. The September meeting produced 38 points. Taken together, those results offer context without a consistent scoring pattern to carry into this rematch.
Seattle’s recent third-down trouble offers a concrete route to limited scoring if it carries into Lock’s start. Arizona could face a similar problem if it can’t establish the run and leaves Minshew repeatedly trying to rescue possessions. The counterweight is the kind of explosive play Allgeier delivered last week. A low threshold can come under pressure without either offense controlling the game for four quarters.
Seattle’s ability to run consistently connects both markets. It could help the Seahawks sustain offense with Lock, but creating the separation this spread asks for also means keeping Arizona’s explosive plays in check. If Allgeier and Minshew find another handful of big gains, Seattle may need much more from its passing game than it would prefer. The September score is a useful reference; the current quarterbacks and ability to keep drives alive matter more to this rematch.
We break down every matchup
Explore the NFL betting board for current odds, matchup ratings and sharp picks across Sunday’s games.
Odds and projections are snapshots and can change. Wagering involves risk.
More matchups to explore
Unlock our Premium picks. Free.
Get our sharpest picks, team grades, and projected score in your inbox.