Chicago found a way to win Tuesday without finding much more offense. The Blackhawks beat Los Angeles 2-1, ending a three-game skid, but they’ve scored only five goals across their last four games. Detroit’s challenge as the home favorite is to keep that attack quiet while tightening up its own end. The Red Wings have been finding goals more often, yet their recent results leave Chicago a plausible route into this matchup.
Chicago’s breakthrough was still a narrow one
Wyatt Kaiser scored the third-period winner against the Kings, and Spencer Knight made 25 saves. Connor Bedard helped create Chicago’s other goal by setting up Roman Kantserov on the power play.
That power-play goal mattered beyond Tuesday’s score. Chicago is 4-for-39 with the man advantage through 12 games, a 10.3% conversion rate. The Blackhawks had scored zero, one and two goals in their three preceding losses. A timely contribution from Bedard and the power play offers a way forward, but one conversion doesn’t erase how hard goals have been to come by.
Our projections put Chicago at about 24 shots, compared with roughly 29 for Detroit. With that expected volume gap, the Blackhawks would benefit from making their power-play chances count rather than relying on a large supply of attempts. It also puts Knight’s recent work in focus: the expected Chicago goalie has a .908 save percentage across his last five appearances this season, including 25 stops on 26 shots against Los Angeles.
Detroit’s scoring gives it the stronger case
The Red Wings beat Edmonton 4-3 in a shootout on Monday after coming back from three separate deficits. Dylan Larkin tied it with 1:17 left in regulation, and Lucas Raymond supplied the shootout winner after recording two assists. Detroit finished that four-game road trip 2-1-1.
Detroit has finished with at least four goals on the scoreboard in five of its last 10 games, including that shootout result. Chicago has reached that mark three times over the same window. That difference, together with the projected shot-volume gap, gives the Red Wings a clearer attacking case at DraftKings’ -180 moneyline. Chicago is +150. Detroit’s 5-5 record over its last 10, however, shows that scoring hasn’t consistently translated into wins.
John Gibson’s recent results are a specific concern for the favorite. The expected Detroit goalie has a .845 save percentage over his last five appearances this season. He allowed four goals on 25 shots against Calgary in his latest outing, and five goals in two other appearances in that stretch. Neither goalie is confirmed to start. If they get the nod, Knight’s stronger recent save results give Chicago a way to keep this competitive even if Detroit generates more shots.
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The 5.5-goal total puts both weaknesses in play
Chicago’s last four games have all stayed under their respective totals, while seven of Detroit’s 12 games this season have gone over. Those histories meet at a current total of 5.5, with the Blackhawks’ limited scoring and Knight’s latest performance supporting a more restrained game.
The counterweight is Detroit’s combination of scoring and goals allowed. The Red Wings have recently won 5-2 at Vancouver and lost 5-4 to New Jersey, alongside that shootout win at Edmonton. Gibson’s recent difficulties offer Chicago an opportunity to contribute more than it has lately. At 5.5, whether the Blackhawks can turn a power play or a modest number of shots into extra offense matters more than simply extending their under streak.
Detroit has the better case for generating more shots. Chicago’s path is narrower but concrete: another strong Knight performance and a useful contribution from the power play. The key distinction is between the Red Wings creating more attempts and protecting the advantage those attempts might produce; their recent results show why both deserve attention before assessing the price.
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