Baylor and Colorado share 2-1 records heading into their Big 12 opener, but the central question is whether the Bears’ passing advantage is large enough to produce separation. Colorado’s strongest unit is built to provide resistance; its bigger challenge is avoiding the turnovers and wasted possessions that turned last week’s competitive stretches into a lopsided loss.
Baylor’s passing game meets Colorado’s best unit
Baylor’s clearest advantage is an offense that earns a B in our grades. Colorado’s defense also receives a B, making that strength-on-strength matchup the most important part of the game.
The Bears showed their passing upside in a 36-19 win over Louisiana Tech. Nate Bennett completed 21 of 24 passes for 253 yards and three touchdowns, including scoring throws of 51, 43 and 36 yards. Jayden McGowan caught two passes for 79 yards and two scores, giving Baylor another explosive receiving option alongside Gavin Freeman. Baylor averaged only 3.7 yards per rushing attempt, however, so offensive balance remains a concern.
Our projections sharpen that contrast. Baylor is around 455 total yards and 300 passing yards, while Colorado is closer to 350 total yards and 215 through the air. The production gap favors Baylor’s ability to move the ball, but converting those yards into sustained scoring against Colorado’s highest-graded unit is the more demanding test.
Colorado has to make its possessions count
The Buffaloes gained 348 yards in their 41-7 loss at Northwestern, but three first-half turnovers repeatedly gave the Wildcats short fields and contributed to a 21-0 halftime deficit. Julian Lewis completed 19 of 29 passes for 168 yards and a touchdown, while Joseph Williams produced Colorado’s biggest play with a 50-yard catch-and-run for its only score.
That possession problem matters because Colorado’s offense and Baylor’s defense both carry C grades. The Buffaloes don’t necessarily have to match Baylor yard for yard, but they need longer drives, better ball security and enough finishing ability to keep the Bears from playing comfortably with a lead.
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What the spread is asking
Baylor is a 9.5-point favorite at DraftKings. That creates a more demanding question than which team is likelier to win: can Baylor build and maintain a double-digit margin?
The case for separation starts with Baylor’s projected passing advantage and the short fields Colorado conceded at Northwestern. The counterweight is that both teams hold C+ overall grades, while Colorado’s B-graded defense is the unit best suited to challenge Baylor’s strength. The one-star side rating also reflects a matchup with meaningful advantages for the favorite but limited overall signal strength.
The total sits at 55.5, with -110 available on either side. Baylor’s passing upside and the possibility of short fields create scoring potential, but Colorado’s ability to sustain drives is the bigger variable. If the Buffaloes protect the ball and make Baylor work through longer possessions, the game can look far more competitive than Colorado’s latest result.
Final assessment
Baylor has the clearer path to consistent production, especially through the air, while Colorado’s best counter is a defense capable of making those possessions more difficult. The uncertainty is whether the Buffaloes’ offense can stay on the field and avoid handing Baylor easy opportunities. Ball security is the swing factor: clean Colorado possessions would force the Bears to earn the full margin, while more short fields could allow Baylor to separate quickly.
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