Tanner McKee’s last two games brought 215 passing yards on 45 attempts and 211 yards on 35 attempts. Philadelphia lost both. That puts a 200-yard passing target in a different light from a bet on the Eagles to win: the yards can arrive through passing volume without a successful team result. Dallas Goedert caught six passes in the first game and five in the second.
For these Commanders parlay picks, the premise is a hypothetical Washington moneyline win, quoted at −278 by DraftKings at 8:38 a.m. EST on November 1. Washington hosts Philadelphia at Northwest Stadium on Sunday, November 1, at 8:20 p.m. EST. The Commanders are 1–4–1 and the Eagles 2–5. The options below ask McKee to reach 200 passing yards and Goedert to catch at least five passes, with individual prices and different historical scopes.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner McKee 200+ passing yards Last season + this season |
−106 | 100.0% 3 of 3 PHI losses |
75.0% 3 of 4 appearances |
| Dallas Goedert Over 4.5 receptions This season |
−142 | 100.0% 3 of 3 PHI losses |
60.0% 3 of 5 appearances |
McKee’s row covers his Eagles appearances with a pass attempt across 2025 and 2026. Goedert’s row uses this season’s games with at least one target. Each all-game column uses the same team, dates and participation rules as its Eagles-loss column, with winning appearances included too. The samples are small; these are observed individual results, not the probability that both options and a Washington win will happen together.
Tanner McKee 200+ passing yards (−106)
McKee reached 200 yards in all three Eagles losses in his two-season passing record, compared with three of four appearances overall. The losing games were 241 yards against Washington on January 4, 2026, 215 against Carolina on October 18 and 211 against Dallas on October 26. His two current-season appearances are both in that losing group.
The attempts help explain how modest passing efficiency can still supply the total. Against Carolina, he completed 26 of 45 passes for 215 yards in a 25–14 defeat. Against Dallas, he completed 23 of 35 for 211 in the 38–21 loss. Neither game required a huge yardage return per attempt to clear 200, but both supplied plenty of opportunities. Tonight’s passing volume remains part of the bet.
The nearby prices make the choice less straightforward than the three-for-three record suggests. 210+ yards at +120 cleared the same three losses and three of four appearances overall. But the latest Dallas game reached only 211, leaving one yard above that floor. At 200, that same game had 11 yards of room. The higher payout asks for ten more yards even though these few past games don’t distinguish the hit counts.
Dropping to 190+ yards at −136 also produces the same historical counts, at a heavier price. The main over 197.5 yards at −111 sits between those thresholds, with the same three losing clears and three of four overall. The 200-yard milestone offers a slightly lighter quote than that main line while still sitting below both current totals.
The appearance that missed all those yardage targets stays in the baseline. McKee completed three passes on three attempts for 33 yards in Philadelphia’s 31–0 win over Las Vegas on December 14, 2025. That outing remains part of the four-game baseline and shows why passing opportunity belongs beside the losing-game record.
McKee is listed as Philadelphia’s quarterback, with DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks ruled out. Those absences affect the available receiving group; they don’t guarantee that enough passes will be completed to reach 200. Three losing appearances, including just two this season, provide a narrow record for a quarterback now carrying the listed starting role.
Dallas Goedert over 4.5 receptions (−142)
Goedert caught six passes against Jacksonville, six against Carolina and five against Dallas in his three current-season Eagles losses. That is three of three losing appearances clearing a five-catch requirement, compared with three of five targeted appearances overall this season.
This current pattern is much stronger than his longer record. Across both seasons, the same five-catch target cleared in only five of nine Eagles losses and seven of 21 targeted appearances overall. This is a recent pattern with limited support in the older record. Philadelphia’s receiving availability has also changed.
The four-catch milestone at −313 cleared the same three losses this season and four of five appearances overall. It also retains the earlier Washington meeting, when Goedert had four catches for 77 yards in Philadelphia’s 24–22 win. Paying for four gives another way to survive a productive day that stops short of five catches, but the price is considerably heavier.
Moving the other way, 6+ receptions at +135 cleared two of the three losses and two of five appearances overall this season. It would have missed his latest line: five catches for 48 yards from seven targets against Dallas. One fewer completion to him in that game would have missed the selected over 4.5 too. Five retains that game without requiring him to repeat the six-catch totals from Jacksonville and Carolina.
The yardage market highlights another difference. Over 44.5 receiving yards at −110 cleared two of three losing appearances and three of five overall this season. In the Jacksonville loss, Goedert caught six of nine targets but finished with 38 yards. That cleared the reception target while missing the yardage over. Short gains can contribute to five catches without supplying 45 receiving yards.
His current-season winning games are useful counterexamples. Four catches against Washington missed five despite producing 77 yards; one catch for four yards against Tennessee missed it by much more. Philadelphia’s result alone doesn’t determine Goedert’s catch count. Smith’s and Wicks’ absences make the distribution of targets worth watching, rather than guaranteeing that their work will move to the tight end.
McKee’s passing yards and Goedert’s catches also share exposure to the same passing offense. A completed pass to Goedert can help both, while a slower passing night can hurt both. Compare their individual requirements and the sportsbook’s actual same-game parlay quote before combining them; the separate hit rates don’t establish a joint probability.
Washington lists Jayden Daniels at quarterback, with Terry McLaurin on injured reserve and Treylon Burks questionable. Keep the current lineups in the wider Washington-win assessment. Follow the live Eagles–Commanders matchup for updates and explore more analysis in our NFL coverage.
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