Jonathan Taylor managed only 23 rushing yards in Jacksonville. A week later, he gets a Dallas defense that just allowed Tyler Allgeier to turn a seemingly secure Cowboys lead into an overtime loss. That gives Indianapolis a concrete route back after a 42–7 defeat: establish the run before another early deficit takes it out of the game. Dallas, meanwhile, needs to show it can protect a lead once its offense has built one.
The run game gives Indianapolis a concrete test
Dallas led Arizona by two touchdowns early in the fourth quarter and lost 33–30, as the AP reported. Allgeier finished with 147 rushing yards and 44 receiving yards, with all but seven of those yards coming after halftime. The Cardinals also drove 80 yards for a tying touchdown with six seconds left in regulation.
That gives Taylor a relevant matchup after his eight-carry afternoon against Jacksonville. Indianapolis fell behind 28–0 by halftime, and a fumble on a botched trick play added to its difficulties. The Colts first need possessions that let their running game matter before another deficit changes the assignment.
Our team rushing projections put Indianapolis near 122 yards and Dallas near 111. Those are team expectations, rather than individual workloads, but they keep the ground game in the discussion despite Taylor’s poor latest result. For Dallas, limiting that production would make it harder for Indianapolis to repair an offense that has scored seven and 10 points in its last two games.
Dallas has offensive evidence, with qualifications
The Cowboys scored 38 against Philadelphia before putting up 30 against Arizona. Yet the Arizona score conceals a less convincing offensive afternoon. Dallas was outgained 467–261, averaged 2.4 yards per rush and went three-and-out on its overtime possession after its defense had forced an opening stop. Dak Prescott threw for one touchdown and ran for another, but the offense couldn’t provide the final answer.
The Wednesday practice updates matter for Prescott’s targets: George Pickens was limited with a hamstring injury, while Jake Ferguson did not practice because of his ankle. Neither report establishes a Sunday absence, but their availability matters to Dallas’ chances of sustaining drives.
Indianapolis offers a vulnerable opponent. Jacksonville rushed for 183 yards and produced several long gains in the Colts’ latest loss, according to the AP. Daniel Jones completed 19 of 28 passes for 144 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions before Anthony Richardson replaced him in the fourth quarter. Jones remains atop the Colts' quarterback depth chart for this matchup; the late substitution wasn’t a confirmed change for Sunday.
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Favoritism and a high total require separate judgments
The DraftKings spread favors Dallas by 5.5 points. The Cowboys are 3–5 overall, with three covers, four spread losses and a push. Indianapolis is 2–6, has lost four straight and has covered four of eight games. The Colts’ latest defeat supplies a clear argument for Dallas, while the Cowboys’ own late collapse supplies the counterweight. Arizona showed why getting ahead and staying ahead are separate tests for this favorite.
The total is 51.5. The eight-game samples this season show six Dallas games and five Indianapolis games going Over their respective totals. Both defenses just conceded big plays, but the Colts’ latest Over included a 92-yard interception return for a Jacksonville touchdown while Indianapolis itself scored only seven. It wasn’t evidence of two functioning offenses.
A productive Taylor-led ground game could help Indianapolis contribute to the scoring and keep the spread competitive. If Dallas contains it, Jones will need a much better passing performance than he delivered last week. The Cowboys also need their own offense to finish drives and give the defense breathing room. The useful question for both markets is whether Indianapolis can stay involved on offense, rather than whether last week’s high final scores will simply repeat.
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