The Cowboys are laying three points on the road in Sunday night’s season opener, and the matchup comes down to a straightforward question: Is Dallas’ projected advantage through the air enough to create separation from New York?
Our outlook gives the Cowboys the more productive passing profile, but the Giants have a plausible counter through the running game. Add a significant injury question involving Malik Nabers, and the latest lines aren’t as straightforward as the quarterback comparison might suggest.
Cowboys vs. Giants game details
- Matchup: Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
- Date and time: Sunday, Sept. 13, 2026, at 8:20 p.m. EDT
- Venue: MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey
- Spread: Cowboys -3 (-105); Giants +3 (-115) at DraftKings
- Total: 48.5, with over -105 and under -115
Dallas has the clearer passing advantage
The supplied quarterback depth charts have Dak Prescott atop Dallas’ offense and Jaxson Dart leading New York’s. The largest statistical separation appears in the passing projections: roughly 264 yards and 24.5 completions for Dallas, compared with about 202 yards and 18.9 completions for New York.
That gap supports Dallas’ status as the favorite, but the full offensive picture is more balanced. The Cowboys project for about 123 rushing yards, while the Giants sit around 132. New York’s clearest route to staying within the spread may be generating enough offense on the ground that every important possession doesn’t fall on Dart’s arm.
There’s also a meaningful personnel uncertainty for the Giants. NFL.com’s Week 1 injury report lists Nabers, the first receiver on New York’s depth chart, as questionable with a knee injury. His status is worth rechecking as kickoff approaches.
The total brings a different kind of uncertainty
Both teams were involved in plenty of high-scoring games late last season. The over finished 8-2 across each club’s final 10 games of the 2025 season. Dallas went 4-6 outright during that stretch, while New York went 2-8, so those totals reflected defensive vulnerability and game flow at least as much as consistently productive offense.
That history gives the 48.5 total some context, but this is a new-season opener with updated personnel. Our current outlook has Dallas generating about 387 total yards to New York’s 334, while the Giants’ stronger rushing projection gives them a way to contribute without matching the Cowboys pass for pass.
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How to read the three-point spread
The spread is the primary market here, and three points asks bettors to judge more than the likely winner. Dallas has the better projected passing output, but covering on the road requires that advantage to translate into enough scoring separation while New York’s ground game remains part of the equation.
Our one-star side and total strength ratings point to a modest-confidence setup rather than a pronounced edge. Dallas’ passing game is the central matchup advantage, but New York’s rushing profile and the uncertainty surrounding Nabers leave both markets sensitive to late information.
For the current market, player information and complete game view, explore the Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants matchup.
Odds and projections are snapshots and can change. Wagering involves risk.