New Jersey won Thursday’s opener 5-2, but the teams put the same number of shots on net. That’s the question hanging over Saturday’s rematch in Washington: can the Capitals turn another competitive game into a different result, or will the Devils keep finding the extra finish and saves? The opener was tied entering the third period, so there’s more to unpack here than the final score suggests.
New Jersey found goals beyond its headliners
The Devils didn’t need Jack Hughes to carry the scoring. Evan Rodrigues opened on the power play, Lenni Hameenaho tied the game with a deflection, and Vladislav Kolyachonok supplied the third-period go-ahead goal in his Devils debut. Stefan Noesen added insurance before Hughes scored into an empty net. Those five different goal scorers explain why Washington has more to solve than one dangerous forward.
New Jersey has also won eight of its last 10 games in this regular season, scoring at least four goals in seven of them. That gives the opener some backing: this wasn’t an isolated night when everything went in. Still, the Devils lost 4-2 in Winnipeg immediately before beating Washington, and Thursday’s decisive goal didn’t arrive until 6:27 of the third. Their recent success hasn’t removed the possibility of a tight rematch.
The blue line is worth watching, too. Johnathan Kovacevic is on injured reserve with an ankle injury, while Brett Pesce is day-to-day with an illness. Kolyachonok stepped in for Kovacevic and delivered Thursday’s biggest goal, but another offensive contribution wouldn’t answer every defensive question. Watch whether New Jersey can move the puck out cleanly and avoid spending repeated shifts defending its own end.
Washington has a game to build on, not just a loss to erase
The Capitals answered Rodrigues’ early goal with Ryan Leonard’s power-play tally, then took the lead through Pierre-Luc Dubois early in the second period. They finished with 28 shots, matching New Jersey. Washington created enough volume to stay involved; what it couldn’t do was protect the tie through the third or find another goal after Dubois scored.
Washington is 6-4 over its last 10 games, including wins over Ottawa and Florida before Thursday’s loss. It also beat New Jersey 4-2 at home earlier in this regular season. That earlier meeting doesn’t settle this one, but it’s a useful counterweight to treating the latest result as the only version of this matchup. The Capitals’ task is to sustain their attack without letting New Jersey’s secondary scorers decide another close game.
If the listed goalies start again, the recent contrast is substantial. Connor Hellebuyck has a .912 save percentage across his five most recent appearances for New Jersey; Logan Thompson has an .861 mark across his five most recent appearances for Washington. Both are unconfirmed for this game. Hellebuyck stopped 26 of 28 shots Thursday, while Thompson stopped 24 of 28 before the empty-net goal. A stronger night from Thompson could change the rematch without Washington needing a dramatic jump in shot volume.
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Moneyline: how much separation is there really?
The quoted moneyline has New Jersey at -120 and Washington at even money. The case for paying New Jersey’s price rests on its repeatable scoring depth and, if he starts, Hellebuyck maintaining his recent level. The reason to hesitate is that Thursday’s three-goal margin grew out of a tied third period and included an empty-netter. It wasn’t three goals’ worth of separation all night.
We project 30.4 shots for New Jersey and 27.3 for Washington. That supports a modest Devils volume advantage, not a runaway. For the moneyline, the distinction matters: New Jersey’s price becomes easier to justify if those extra attempts come alongside clean defensive exits and another strong goaltending performance. Washington’s price becomes more interesting if the Capitals keep the shot count close again and get steadier saves. A goalie change would be a reason to revisit that comparison rather than carry Thursday’s matchup forward unchanged.
Total: seven goals took a late push
The total is 6.5, and Thursday’s seven-goal finish shows how narrow that threshold can be. The game stood 3-2 until Noesen scored at 17:07 of the third; Hughes’ empty-net goal then supplied the seventh. Both teams scored on the power play in the first period, too. For this rematch, early penalties and another close late-game score could matter as much as the overall shot count.
Seven of each team’s last 10 games finished over their stored totals. Those histories fit the recent scoring environment, but the goalie comparison pulls in different directions. Thompson’s recent results leave room for New Jersey to score without an enormous shot count; Hellebuyck’s recent saves could force the Devils to provide more of the offense needed to reach seven. The over case strengthens if Washington contributes early and the power plays stay involved. The under case strengthens if Washington gets improved saves while New Jersey continues limiting the Capitals’ finishing. Shot volume alone doesn’t settle this threshold.
Watch the saves, then the response
Start with who gets the nets, then watch what happens after the first goal: can Washington keep generating shots, and can New Jersey’s supporting scorers make the Capitals defend more than Hughes? Visit the NHL betting board to compare this rematch’s moneyline and total with the rest of the slate as the goalie picture develops.
Odds and projections are snapshots and can change. Wagering involves risk.
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