New Jersey keeps finding ways to win, but its latest victory required an overtime rescue after a three-goal lead disappeared. The Islanders reached the third period tied in their latest game and couldn’t finish the job. That makes the closing stages a useful focus at UBS Arena: the Devils bring the stronger recent results and offensive grade, while both teams have just shown how quickly a promising position can unravel.
The Devils’ attack keeps creating another chance
Jesper Bratt finished a breakaway off a Dougie Hamilton feed to give New Jersey a 5–4 overtime win over St. Louis, according to AP’s report on ESPN. The Devils had led 4–1 after two periods before allowing three goals in 3:08. Luke Hughes had a goal and an assist, and Jack Hughes supplied two assists.
The win was New Jersey's third straight and eighth in its last 10 games. The offense has scored four or more goals in each of those three victories. That production gives the Devils room to recover from mistakes, but the blown lead against the Blues is a reason to examine their control of the game as closely as their final results.
DraftKings prices New Jersey at -155 on the moneyline and the Islanders at +130. Our team grades give the Devils a B− on offense against the Islanders’ D+, while both defenses carry a B. The offensive difference supports the favorite’s case; the equal defensive grades and New Jersey’s latest lapse complicate any assumption of a comfortable night.
Jack Hughes' assists market is set at 0.5 after his two-assist game against St. Louis. That brings New Jersey’s ability to involve other scorers into focus: the Devils have found goals from several contributors, giving the Islanders more than one threat to contain.
The Islanders have to stop giving themselves extra work
As AP reported via ESPN, Carolina scored twice in the first 3:20 against the Islanders, taking advantage of forwards overrunning a loose puck and a play that left Matthew Schaefer caught up ice. New York fought back to tie the game twice, but William Carrier converted a rebound with 5:08 left before a late empty-net goal completed a 5–3 defeat.
Brayden Schenn had a goal and an assist in that response. The Islanders showed they could recover, but the early concessions and late rebound left their offense repairing damage rather than protecting an advantage. Against a Devils team that has recently kept scoring through imperfect performances, those are expensive situations to keep offering.
New York has won five of its last 10 games and lost its latest two. The most recent loss came with Semyon Varlamov in net. Ilya Sorokin is the projected starter for Saturday, with Connor Hellebuyck projected for New Jersey; neither is confirmed.
Hellebuyck has a .891 save percentage in his four-start Devils sample this season. Sorokin is at .886 over his latest five appearances, also all starts. Those small, unequal samples give little reason to treat either projected goalie as a decisive advantage. The teams’ ability to limit chances remains a central part of the comparison.
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A 5.5 total meets two different recent patterns
New Jersey’s last five games have all gone over their posted totals, part of 10 overs in 16 games this season. The Islanders’ last 10 have produced six unders and four overs. The Devils’ streak has driven much of their season pattern, while the Islanders have more often been involved in lower-scoring results over the last 10.
Both latest games had already gone over their posted totals before the overtime winner or empty-net goal. The more revealing detail is what came before: New Jersey lost control of a substantial lead, while the Islanders spent much of their night recovering from early mistakes. At 5.5, reducing those breakdowns matters more than the way either final goal arrived.
Our shot projections put New Jersey around 30 and the Islanders around 27. That suggests a modest volume difference, not a measure of shot quality. The more useful question is whether the Devils can keep generating offense without leaving another game open, and whether the Islanders can reduce the mistakes that force them to chase it.
New Jersey has shown it can score enough to survive an imperfect night; the Islanders have less room for that approach given the gap in offensive grades. Avoiding the early chase would let New York put its B-rated defense to work in a closer game. For the Devils, protecting what their attack creates would be a stronger sign of control than needing another rescue.
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