Dallas has won five straight, New Jersey has won three straight, and neither team arrives looking like an easy opponent. The interesting wrinkle is how those streaks meet: the Stars bring the stronger defensive assessment in our analysis, while our projections give the Devils more shots. That makes New Jersey’s ability to turn shooting volume into scoring the central test—not simply which team stays hot.
Dallas has a strong case as the favorite
DraftKings has Dallas as a modest moneyline favorite at -125, with New Jersey at +105. The Stars have won seven of their last 10 games, compared with six for the Devils, but the visitors have won five of their last six. There’s a solid recent case for both teams.
Dallas showed its scoring range Sunday, when Jason Robertson scored twice in a 6-3 win over the Islanders. The Stars broke the game open with three third-period goals. New Jersey’s latest win was tighter: Brett Pesce supplied the go-ahead goal as the Devils beat Los Angeles 3-1 on Saturday.
Our grades favor Dallas at both ends: a B for its attack versus New Jersey’s C+, and an A- defensively versus the Devils’ B. That fits the Stars’ position as favorites. The counterweight is shooting volume: our shots projections put New Jersey at about 30 and Dallas at 26. Those extra attempts give the Devils a plausible route to making this uncomfortable, even against the stronger-rated defensive team.
The 5.5 total deserves a closer look
Dallas’ six-goal outing broke from its broader lower-scoring run. Our historical betting data shows that 10 of the Stars’ 11 games this season finished under their respective sportsbook totals, producing a profit of 7.77 units from flat one-unit Under bets. Those results came at the lines and prices available for those games, rather than all at today’s 5.5. Still, three wins during Dallas’ current streak finished 3-2, each against a 5.5 total.
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There’s relevant goaltending evidence alongside that history. Jake Oettinger’s last five appearances include a shutout and just 10 goals allowed overall, with opponents scoring two or fewer in three of those games. Alongside our strong assessment of Dallas defensively, that gives New Jersey a meaningful scoring hurdle.
The counterweight at 5.5 is the uneven recent scoring picture. Dallas just scored six by itself, and New Jersey’s last 10 games have split evenly between overs and unders. Jake Allen allowed only one goal against Los Angeles, but faced just 13 shots; he allowed three or four goals in each of his preceding three appearances. His latest result is encouraging for the Devils, though it came with a light workload. Dallas’ lower-scoring history matters, but Sunday’s outburst and Allen’s mixed recent results keep it from being the whole story.
What matters most
Dallas’ stronger defensive assessment and five-game winning streak give its modest favorite price a clear foundation. New Jersey’s projected shooting advantage is the main counterweight: the Stars may need to handle more shots while getting enough from their own attack. The total turns on a related distinction. Dallas has repeatedly won tight, lower-scoring games, but its latest six-goal performance shows why that history alone isn’t enough to settle the outlook at 5.5. The most useful test is whether the Devils can turn their extra shooting volume into a scoring challenge that Dallas’ recent opponents have rarely sustained.
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