Anaheim gets another chance in New York on Tuesday, but can it produce a better start against a rested Islanders team? The Ducks lost 5-2 to the Rangers on Monday and have scored twice in each of three straight defeats. The Islanders, meanwhile, haven’t played since Saturday’s 4-1 win in Toronto. That schedule favors New York, yet Anaheim’s stronger attacking grade in our analysis makes the matchup more interesting than the recent results alone suggest.
Anaheim needs more than a late response
Monday’s score was kinder to the Ducks than most of the game: they scored both goals in the final 70 seconds. The AP reported that their delay-filled trip from California took roughly 15 hours. Playing again the next night leaves little recovery time, although Lukas Dostal takes over in net after Ville Husso faced the Rangers.
DraftKings’ current moneyline makes the Islanders a -155 favorite, with Anaheim at +130. New York’s extra time between games is a meaningful advantage, but our assessment of the attacks provides a counterweight: we give Anaheim a B offensive grade and the Islanders a D+. Our shooting projections also put the Ducks slightly ahead in volume, at about 30 shots to New York’s 28. That gives Anaheim a plausible route to competing through its attack, even after three disappointing scoring nights.
The goalie evidence separates the teams
Dostal’s last five appearances have been uneven. He stopped 16 of 17 shots against Winnipeg, but allowed four goals on 22 shots against Boston in his latest outing. Across those five appearances this season, his save percentage was .877.
If Ilya Sorokin gets the start for New York, he brings a much stronger recent sample: a .943 save percentage across five appearances, including 28 saves on 29 shots in Saturday’s win at Toronto. Those are short stretches, but they help explain the challenge facing Anaheim’s attack. Our B defensive grade for the Islanders, compared with a D+ for the Ducks, points in the same direction at the team level.
New York also has two forward absences to account for. Matias Maccelli is out with a lower-body injury, with the team announcing a two-to-four-week timetable Monday. Calum Ritchie is out for four to six weeks with a lower-body injury. The Islanders’ game preview confirms both will miss this matchup. Those absences matter for a team whose attack already receives the weaker grade in our analysis.
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Why 5.5 deserves a closer look
Across each team’s eight recent games this season, five have finished Under their posted totals. The important distinction is the threshold: all eight Anaheim games carried a 6.5 total, a full goal above this matchup’s 5.5. Those results offer less reassurance about a lower-scoring game at today’s number than the matching records might suggest. New York’s sample is more directly comparable: seven of its eight games had a 5.5 total, with four finishing Under.
Sorokin’s recent work and New York’s limited attacking grade support a quieter scoring outlook at 5.5. Dostal’s uneven results and Anaheim’s better-rated attack pull the other way. Our shooting projections show only a modest gap between the teams, so there isn’t a large volume imbalance to settle that tension. New York’s opportunity to capitalize on Anaheim’s recent vulnerability has to be weighed against its own weaker attacking assessment and the two forward absences.
The Islanders’ clearest advantages are the schedule and, if Sorokin starts, the stronger recent goaltending evidence. Anaheim’s counterweight is an attack we rate more highly, with enough expected shooting volume to test that advantage. At New York’s favorite price, the central issue is whether that defensive and goaltending advantage can offset its weaker attacking outlook. The same tension makes the 5.5 total more nuanced than either team’s recent Under record alone suggests.
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