Nate Sheppard went 69 yards for a touchdown on his first carry against NC State. Miami ran three times from the Notre Dame 1 and came away with a field goal. Those two possessions frame Saturday’s matchup. If Duke can keep its run game available and make Miami work for touchdowns, it has a better chance of avoiding an afternoon spent throwing to catch up.
Duke needs the carries between the big runs
Sheppard ran for 217 yards and three touchdowns in Duke’s 41–3 win at NC State. His first touchdown put Duke ahead, and Andrew Pellicciotta’s return of a missed field goal made it 31–3 at halftime. Against Miami, a few productive carries on early downs would keep the playbook open even if Sheppard never breaks another long one.
DraftKings had Miami favored by 13.5 in the pregame snapshot. Our team grades give Miami an A on defense and Duke a B on offense. Notre Dame found room through the air, with CJ Carr throwing for 319 yards as the Irish built a 24–3 lead in their 31–24 win. Darian Mensah threw three touchdown passes and twice pulled Miami within one score. If Duke gets an early lead of its own, the next test is whether Sheppard can help the offense keep answering once Miami gets going.
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How those drives end matters at 54.5
Miami’s loss at Notre Dame finished at 55 combined points even though the Hurricanes had only three at halftime. Duke’s last two games finished at 44 and 49, with NC State and Boston College scoring just five points between them. The contrast matters at DraftKings’ 54.5. A long Duke drive that stalls can keep Mensah on the sideline and take time off the clock. If those drives end in touchdowns, Duke can keep the margin close while giving Miami a reason to keep throwing.
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