Pirates78 – 77vsPhillies85 – 70

Sharp side

TBD

Model value

Sharp total

TBD

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

A projection is not available because one or both teams do not have sufficient qualifying history.

Matchup intelligence

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Pittsburgh Pirates	C+	B	B-
Philadelphia Phillies	A-	B+	A-

Sportsbook context

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

PIT-107-1.5 (+154)

PHI-112+1.5 (-188)

Total 9.0Over -105Under -114

Recent form

Overall5–5–0W–L–TRun line6–4–0W–L–PO/U6–4–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
6/28/26	vs CIN	W 9–4	W -1.5	O 9
6/27/26	vs CIN	L 7–9	L +1.5	O 8
6/26/26	vs CIN	L 4–6	L -1.5	O 7.5
6/25/26	vs SEA	W 5–1	W +1.5	U 8.5
6/24/26	vs SEA	W 11–1	W +1.5	O 8
6/23/26	vs SEA	L 2–3	W +1.5	U 9
6/21/26	@ COL	W 8–6	W -1.5	O 11.5
6/20/26	@ COL	L 1–2	L -1.5	U 10.5
6/19/26	@ COL	L 3–4	L -1.5	U 11.5
6/17/26	@ ATH	W 12–4	W -1.5	O 10.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Overall7–3–0W–L–TRun line4–6–0W–L–PO/U4–4–2O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
6/28/26	@ NYM	W 5–4	L -1.5	O 8.5
6/27/26	@ NYM	L 2–6	L +1.5	U 9
6/26/26	@ NYM	W 2–1	L -1.5	U 8.5
6/25/26	@ WSH	W 10–5	W -1.5	O 8.5
6/24/26	@ WSH	W 5–4	L -1.5	U 9.5
6/23/26	@ WSH	W 14–9	W -1.5	O 8.5
6/22/26	@ WSH	L 1–4	L +1.5	U 9.5
6/21/26	vs NYM	W 6–2	W -1.5	P 8
6/20/26	vs NYM	W 15–3	W -1.5	O 7.5
6/18/26	vs NYM	L 4–6	L -1.5	P 10

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Starting pitcher context

PiratesBraxton AshcraftConfirmed

PhilliesAaron NolaConfirmed

Pittsburgh PiratesConfirmed

Philadelphia PhilliesConfirmed

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