MLB matchup

08/26/20264:10 PMPETCO ParkSan Diego, CA84°F · Mostly sunny

Pirates78 – 77vsPadres86 – 69

Sharp side

✈️ Pirates +126

Model value

Sharp total

↑ Over 8.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Pittsburgh Pirates	4.1	46.4%
San Diego Padres	4.5	53.6%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Pittsburgh Pirates	C+	C+	C+
San Diego Padres	B	C	B-

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

PIT+126+1.5 (-188)

SD-135-1.5 (+154)

Total 8.5Over -102Under -119

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

PIT+118+1.5 (-175)

SD-145-1.5 (+145)

Total 8.5Over -102Under -118

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

PIT+123+1.5 (-200)

SD-139-1.5 (+160)

Total 8.5Over -103Under -118

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

PIT+125+1.5 (-170)

SD-135-1.5 (+143)

Total 8.5Over +100Under -120

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

PIT+122+1.5 (-170)

SD-132-1.5 (+150)

Total 8.5Over +100Under -120

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

PIT+120+1.5 (-185)

SD-145-1.5 (+150)

Total 8.5Over -105Under -115

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

PIT+122+1.5 (-176)

SD-132-1.5 (+146)

Total 8.5Over -102Under -120

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

PIT+120+1.5 (-165)

SD-130-1.5 (+155)

Total 8.5Over +100Under -110

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

PIT+121+1.5 (-180)

SD-136-1.5 (+150)

Total 8.5Over +100Under -120

Recent form

Last 10 games

Pittsburgh Pirates

Overall5–5–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U3–7–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
8/25/26	@ SD	W 1–0	W +1.5	U 7
8/24/26	@ SD	W 3–2	L -1.5	U 7.5
8/23/26	@ LAD	L 0–4	L +1.5	U 8.5
8/22/26	@ LAD	L 3–4	W +1.5	U 7.5
8/21/26	@ LAD	L 4–5	W +1.5	O 8
8/19/26	vs DET	W 4–3	L -1.5	U 8.5
8/18/26	vs DET	W 4–1	W -1.5	U 8
8/17/26	vs DET	L 5–8	L +1.5	O 8.5
8/16/26	vs BOS	W 8–3	W +1.5	O 8
8/15/26	vs BOS	L 0–4	L +1.5	U 7.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

San Diego Padres

Overall5–5–0W–L–TRun line7–3–0W–L–PO/U2–7–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
8/25/26	vs PIT	L 0–1	L -1.5	U 7
8/24/26	vs PIT	L 2–3	W +1.5	U 7.5
8/23/26	vs MIN	W 8–1	W -1.5	O 8.5
8/22/26	vs MIN	W 7–5	W -1.5	O 8
8/21/26	vs MIN	W 6–2	W -1.5	P 8
8/19/26	@ NYM	L 2–4	L -1.5	U 8.5
8/18/26	@ NYM	W 5–2	W -1.5	U 8.5
8/17/26	@ NYM	L 1–2	W +1.5	U 7.5
8/16/26	@ CLE	W 5–0	W -1.5	U 8
8/15/26	@ CLE	L 1–6	L -1.5	U 8.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Pirates and Padres
	Statistic
N/A (8.7)	Hits	N/A (8.1)
N/A (1.6)	Doubles	N/A (1.4)
N/A (1.1)	Home Runs	N/A (1.1)
N/A (13.9)	Total Bases	N/A (13.2)
N/A (3.5)	Walks	N/A (3.4)
N/A (9.3)	Strikeouts	N/A (8.0)
N/A (0.8)	Stolen Bases	N/A (1.0)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

PiratesBubba ChandlerConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+11047.6%Under-14659.3%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-12355.2%Under-10851.9%

Total Outs Recorded15.5Over+12145.2%Under-16161.7%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over+11346.9%Under-14459.0%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-17763.9%Under+13342.9%

PadresRandy VasquezConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+11047.6%Under-14759.5%

Total Hits Allowed5.5Over+10947.8%Under-14559.2%

Total Outs Recorded15.5Over+14241.3%Under-19065.5%

Total Strikeouts3.5Over-10952.2%Under-11753.9%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+12245.0%Under-16362.0%

Starting lineups

Pittsburgh PiratesConfirmed

1Spencer Horwitz1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterSpencer Horwitz+10408.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+14341.2%Under-19165.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40719.7%Under-63086.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-20367.0%Under+15139.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10150.2%Under-13256.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24828.7%Under-36078.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11845.9%Under-16362.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10551.2%Under-13256.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18335.3%Under-26072.2%
2Brandon Lowe2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterBrandon Lowe+63013.7%
Total Bases1.5Over+12145.2%Under-16161.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42419.1%Under-67087.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-20967.6%Under+15639.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11353.1%Under-11753.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18235.5%Under-25872.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10349.3%Under-14358.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11546.5%Under-16061.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19733.7%Under-28073.7%
3Bryan ReynoldsDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterBryan Reynolds+10408.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+13542.6%Under-18064.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41319.5%Under-65086.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-21568.3%Under+16038.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10651.5%Under-12655.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20432.9%Under-29174.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12544.4%Under-17463.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10651.5%Under-13056.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18035.7%Under-25571.8%
4Esmerlyn ValdezRF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterEsmerlyn Valdez+80011.1%
Total Bases1.5Over+13642.4%Under-18164.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49316.9%Under-79088.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-16962.8%Under+12744.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10249.5%Under-13657.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17736.1%Under-25071.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11945.7%Under-16462.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13642.4%Under-18965.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+11008.3%Under-230095.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17636.2%Under-24971.3%
5Oneil CruzCF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterOneil Cruz+82010.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+13342.9%Under-17763.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49416.8%Under-80088.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-17864.0%Under+13342.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10250.5%Under-13056.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16637.6%Under-23370.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11446.7%Under-15761.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13842.0%Under-19365.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+44418.4%Under-70087.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17236.8%Under-24270.8%
6Nick Gonzales3B
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterNick Gonzales+29003.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+14241.3%Under-19065.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39820.1%Under-62086.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-25171.5%Under+18535.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10350.7%Under-12956.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25827.9%Under-37779.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17436.5%Under-24671.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-15360.5%Under+11147.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+85010.5%Under-158094.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+29925.1%Under-44381.6%
7Jake MangumLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJake Mangum+32003.0%
Total Bases1.5Over+16437.9%Under-22168.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50816.4%Under-82089.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-19365.9%Under+14441.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12045.5%Under-15961.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28426.0%Under-41980.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19533.9%Under-27773.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12655.8%Under-10952.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+43218.8%Under-68087.2%
8Rafael Flores Jr.C
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterRafael Flores Jr.+16405.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+54015.6%Under-89089.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-13858.0%Under+10449.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16462.1%Under+12344.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25428.2%Under-37078.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18934.6%Under-26972.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12943.7%Under-17964.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+35022.2%Under-53184.2%
9Jacob GonzalezSS
Player props7 markets
First Home Run HitterJacob Gonzalez+19205.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+59714.3%Under-100090.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-11653.7%Under-11453.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-13858.0%Under+10449.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+30224.9%Under-44881.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+21032.3%Under-30075.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14640.7%Under-20467.1%

San Diego PadresConfirmed

1Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterFernando Tatis Jr.+74011.9%
Total Bases1.5Over-10350.7%Under-12956.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39120.4%Under-61085.9%
Total Hits1.5Over+17536.4%Under-23770.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-15660.9%Under+11746.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21568.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-12355.2%Under-11252.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13958.2%Under+10050.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+33722.9%Under-50883.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21568.3%
2Jake Cronenworth2B
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJake Cronenworth+16605.7%
Total Bases1.5Over+14341.2%Under-19165.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40519.8%Under-63086.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-18765.2%Under+14041.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10250.5%Under-13156.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24029.4%Under-34777.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11446.7%Under-15761.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10350.7%Under-13457.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9909.2%Under-194095.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+11247.2%Under-15560.8%
3Manny Machado3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterManny Machado+10608.6%
Total Bases1.5Over+13442.7%Under-17864.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44918.2%Under-71087.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-18164.4%Under+13542.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10250.5%Under-13056.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18435.2%Under-26072.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11845.9%Under-16362.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11346.9%Under-15660.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+11845.9%Under-16362.0%
4Ty France1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterTy France+12007.7%
Total Bases1.5Over+14241.3%Under-18965.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43318.8%Under-68087.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-19766.3%Under+14740.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11152.6%Under-12054.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17136.9%Under-24270.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12444.6%Under-17163.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10350.7%Under-13557.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17136.9%Under-24170.7%
5Jackson MerrillCF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJackson Merrill+10208.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+13442.7%Under-17964.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42019.2%Under-66086.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-19466.0%Under+14540.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10851.9%Under-12355.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16737.5%Under-23570.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11646.3%Under-16161.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16662.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+72012.2%Under-128092.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18535.1%Under-26372.5%
6Luis RengifoLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterLuis Rengifo+27003.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46517.7%Under-74088.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-17663.8%Under+13243.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11546.5%Under-15260.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26727.2%Under-39179.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21568.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11052.4%Under-12655.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+73012.0%Under-128092.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18635.0%Under-26372.5%
7Gavin SheetsDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterGavin Sheets+12407.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+52216.1%Under-85089.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-13958.2%Under+10548.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12544.4%Under-16662.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22231.1%Under-31976.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14540.8%Under-20266.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14141.5%Under-19766.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14740.5%Under-20667.3%
8Xander BogaertsSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterXander Bogaerts+22004.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47617.4%Under-76088.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-14559.2%Under+10947.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12444.6%Under-16562.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24529.0%Under-35678.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21668.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11845.9%Under-16462.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+75011.8%Under-132093.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15738.9%Under-22168.8%
9Freddy FerminC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterFreddy Fermin+25003.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+60014.3%Under-102091.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-11753.9%Under-11353.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15961.4%Under+11945.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27127.0%Under-39779.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18834.7%Under-26772.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14041.7%Under-19566.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23330.0%Under-33677.1%

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