MLB matchup

08/26/20266:40 PMloanDepot parkMiami, FL

Red Sox84 – 72vsMarlins76 – 80

Sharp side

✈️ Red Sox -129

Model value

Sharp total

↓ Under 7.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Boston Red Sox	4.1	56.2%
Miami Marlins	3.5	43.8%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Boston Red Sox	B-	A-	B
Miami Marlins	C	C+	C

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS-129-1.5 (+129)

MIA+120+1.5 (-156)

Total 7.5Over -110Under -110

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS-135-1.5 (+125)

MIA+110+1.5 (-155)

Total 7.5Over -115Under -105

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS-129-1.5 (+128)

MIA+114+1.5 (-157)

Total 7.5Over -114Under -105

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS-130-1.5 (+130)

MIA+120+1.5 (-155)

Total 7.5Over -115Under -105

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS-125-1.5 (+138)

MIA+115+1.5 (-158)

Total 7.5Over -115Under -105

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS-130-1.5 (+125)

MIA+110+1.5 (-150)

Total 7.5Over -115Under -105

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS-126-1.5 (+132)

MIA+116+1.5 (-160)

Total 7.5Over -115Under -104

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS-125-1.5 (+140)

MIA+115+1.5 (-150)

Total 7.5Over -110Under +100

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS-131-1.5 (+135)

MIA+116+1.5 (-160)

Total 7.5Over -120Under +100

Recent form

Last 10 games

Boston Red Sox

Overall8–2–0W–L–TRun line6–4–0W–L–PO/U7–3–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
8/25/26	@ MIA	W 7–3	W -1.5	O 7
8/24/26	@ MIA	W 4–2	W -1.5	U 7
8/23/26	vs SF	W 5–4	L -1.5	O 8.5
8/22/26	vs SF	W 3–2	L -1.5	U 8
8/21/26	vs SF	W 6–4	W -1.5	O 7.5
8/19/26	vs ARI	L 6–7	L -1.5	O 8.5
8/18/26	vs ARI	W 9–4	W -1.5	O 7.5
8/17/26	vs ARI	W 11–1	W -1.5	O 9
8/16/26	@ PIT	L 3–8	L -1.5	O 8
8/15/26	@ PIT	W 4–0	W -1.5	U 7.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Miami Marlins

Overall5–5–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U4–5–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
8/25/26	vs BOS	L 3–7	L +1.5	O 7
8/24/26	vs BOS	L 2–4	L +1.5	U 7
8/23/26	vs WSH	W 6–2	W -1.5	P 8
8/22/26	vs WSH	W 4–2	W -1.5	U 7.5
8/21/26	vs WSH	W 3–2	L -1.5	U 7.5
8/19/26	@ PHI	L 1–4	L +1.5	U 9
8/18/26	@ PHI	L 4–6	L +1.5	O 8
8/17/26	@ PHI	L 5–6	W +1.5	O 8.5
8/16/26	@ CIN	W 7–1	W -1.5	U 8.5
8/15/26	@ CIN	W 8–4	W -1.5	O 9

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Red Sox and Marlins
	Statistic
N/A (8.2)	Hits	N/A (8.3)
N/A (1.8)	Doubles	N/A (1.5)
N/A (1.0)	Home Runs	N/A (1.0)
N/A (13.3)	Total Bases	N/A (13.3)
N/A (3.2)	Walks	N/A (3.4)
N/A (8.2)	Strikeouts	N/A (8.3)
N/A (0.7)	Stolen Bases	N/A (1.1)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

Red SoxSonny GrayConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+12544.4%Under-16662.4%

Total Hits Allowed5.5Over+11546.5%Under-15360.5%

Total Outs Recorded17.5Over-20767.4%Under+15339.5%

Total Strikeouts5.5Over-12956.3%Under+10149.8%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-11753.9%Under-11353.1%

MarlinsRyan GustoConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-15360.5%Under+11546.5%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-11453.3%Under-11653.7%

Total Outs Recorded14.5Over-11553.5%Under-11653.7%

Total Strikeouts3.5Over-14559.2%Under+11346.9%

Total Walks Allowed0.5Over-23770.3%Under+17636.2%

Starting lineups

Boston Red SoxConfirmed

1Nick Sogard1B
Player props9 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+13842.0%Under-18464.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37321.1%Under-57285.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-23770.3%Under+17536.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12054.5%Under-11052.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26127.7%Under-38179.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10848.1%Under-15060.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-14158.5%Under+10249.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+85010.5%Under-158094.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+12943.7%Under-17964.2%
2Ceddanne RafaelaCF
Player props8 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+11147.4%Under-14859.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+31524.1%Under-47182.5%
Total Hits1.5Over+18535.1%Under-25171.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13958.2%Under+10548.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20532.8%Under-29274.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11147.4%Under-15460.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-16061.5%Under+11646.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+74011.9%Under-132093.0%
3Wilyer AbreuRF
Player props9 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+10947.8%Under-14559.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+32223.7%Under-48282.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-23770.3%Under+17536.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12856.1%Under-10451.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+14940.2%Under-20867.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10848.1%Under-14959.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10150.2%Under-13657.6%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+10009.1%Under-198095.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17037.0%Under-23970.5%
4Caleb Durbin3B
Player props9 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+14041.7%Under-18765.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37321.1%Under-57185.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-24270.8%Under+17935.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12154.8%Under-10952.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19134.4%Under-27173.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14041.7%Under-19666.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-14158.5%Under+10249.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+46417.7%Under-74088.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24129.3%Under-34977.7%
5Mickey GasperDH
Player props8 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+14540.8%Under-19365.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37321.1%Under-57185.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-19766.3%Under+14740.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10851.9%Under-12355.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19034.5%Under-26972.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12843.9%Under-17864.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10350.7%Under-13457.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19234.2%Under-27373.2%
6Andruw MonasterioSS
Player props9 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+15139.8%Under-20367.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37820.9%Under-57985.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-20667.3%Under+15439.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10451.0%Under-12856.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21831.4%Under-31375.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13842.0%Under-19265.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11753.9%Under-11854.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9709.3%Under-186094.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21631.6%Under-30975.6%
7Jarren DuranLF
Player props9 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+14341.2%Under-19165.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+34822.3%Under-52884.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-19365.9%Under+14441.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10350.7%Under-12956.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20432.9%Under-29174.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13542.6%Under-18765.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10648.5%Under-14759.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+72012.2%Under-128092.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23330.0%Under-33777.1%
8Anthony Seigler2B
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45618.0%Under-72087.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-17163.1%Under+12843.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11247.2%Under-14859.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23330.0%Under-33677.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15938.6%Under-22369.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10149.8%Under-13958.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24329.2%Under-35277.9%
9Connor WongC
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+58114.7%Under-97090.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-14659.3%Under+11047.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17363.4%Under+12943.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26527.4%Under-38879.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18535.1%Under-26272.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11147.4%Under-15460.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+33023.3%Under-49683.2%

Miami MarlinsConfirmed

1Kyle StowersDH
Player props8 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+13742.2%Under-18264.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44718.3%Under-71087.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-19165.6%Under+14341.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10350.7%Under-12856.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20932.4%Under-29974.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11746.1%Under-16261.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11845.9%Under-16362.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21431.8%Under-30775.4%
2Griffin Conine1B
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47717.3%Under-76088.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-16362.0%Under+12344.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12145.2%Under-16161.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25228.4%Under-36778.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14341.2%Under-20066.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12444.6%Under-17363.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21931.3%Under-31575.9%
3Heriberto HernandezLF
Player props8 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43518.7%Under-69087.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-17163.1%Under+12843.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11845.9%Under-15761.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22630.7%Under-32576.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15040.0%Under-20967.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12444.6%Under-17263.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9209.8%Under-174094.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19334.1%Under-27573.3%
4Xavier Edwards2B
Player props9 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+15639.1%Under-21067.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42619.0%Under-67087.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-21267.9%Under+15838.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10349.3%Under-13757.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26027.8%Under-38079.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16837.3%Under-23670.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12255.0%Under-11353.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+51516.3%Under-84089.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23330.0%Under-33677.1%
5Jakob MarseeCF
Player props8 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49416.8%Under-80088.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-13757.8%Under+10349.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13842.0%Under-18564.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26127.7%Under-38179.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17436.5%Under-24671.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12644.2%Under-17563.6%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+47417.4%Under-76088.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16837.3%Under-23770.3%
6Otto LopezSS
Player props9 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+15239.7%Under-20467.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45318.1%Under-72087.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-22168.8%Under+16437.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10150.2%Under-13156.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23130.2%Under-33477.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16437.9%Under-23169.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13156.7%Under-10651.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+38920.4%Under-59985.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+33523.0%Under-50583.5%
7Owen CaissieRF
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+64013.5%Under-110091.7%
Total Hits0.5Over+10848.1%Under-14358.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-11553.5%Under-11553.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+30624.6%Under-45682.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+22630.7%Under-32676.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+19833.6%Under-28373.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31823.9%Under-47582.6%
8Joe MackC
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+62013.9%Under-106091.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-11252.8%Under-11954.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-13757.8%Under+10349.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+30324.8%Under-45181.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+21232.1%Under-30475.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14840.3%Under-20767.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+30824.5%Under-45982.1%
9Javier Sanoja3B
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+52016.1%Under-85089.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-16161.7%Under+12145.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13442.7%Under-17964.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+30124.9%Under-44881.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19633.8%Under-27973.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10449.0%Under-14459.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+74011.9%Under-132093.0%

Get the complete matchup

Unlock every rated bet and the complete matchup intelligence with Premium.

Start 7-day free trial