MLB matchup

08/28/20267:10 PMTropicana FieldSt. Petersburg, FL

Padres86 – 69vsRays94 – 60

Sharp side

🏠 Rays -119

Model value

Sharp total

↓ Under 7.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
San Diego Padres	3.4	46.1%
Tampa Bay Rays	3.8	53.9%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
San Diego Padres	B	B	B
Tampa Bay Rays	B	B+	B+

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

SD+111+1.5 (-199)

TB-119-1.5 (+163)

Total 7.5Over -103Under -117

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

SD+105+1.5 (-200)

TB-130-1.5 (+165)

Total 7.5Over -105Under -115

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

SD+115+1.5 (-190)

TB-137-1.5 (+155)

Total 7.5Over -108Under -113

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

SD+120+1.5 (-190)

TB-130-1.5 (+158)

Total 7.5Over +100Under -120

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

SD+113+1.5 (-195)

TB-123-1.5 (+170)

Total 7.5Over -105Under -115

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

SD+110+1.5 (-205)

TB-130-1.5 (+165)

Total 7.5Over -105Under -115

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

SD+112+1.5 (-210)

TB-122-1.5 (+172)

Total 7.5Over -102Under -120

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

SD+110+1.5 (-185)

TB-120-1.5 (+175)

Total 7.5Over +100Under -110

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

SD+111+1.5 (-215)

TB-125-1.5 (+170)

Total 7.5Over +100Under -120

Recent form

Last 10 games

San Diego Padres

Overall6–4–0W–L–TRun line8–2–0W–L–PO/U2–7–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
8/26/26	vs PIT	W 3–0	W -1.5	U 8.5
8/25/26	vs PIT	L 0–1	L -1.5	U 7
8/24/26	vs PIT	L 2–3	W +1.5	U 7.5
8/23/26	vs MIN	W 8–1	W -1.5	O 8.5
8/22/26	vs MIN	W 7–5	W -1.5	O 8
8/21/26	vs MIN	W 6–2	W -1.5	P 8
8/19/26	@ NYM	L 2–4	L -1.5	U 8.5
8/18/26	@ NYM	W 5–2	W -1.5	U 8.5
8/17/26	@ NYM	L 1–2	W +1.5	U 7.5
8/16/26	@ CLE	W 5–0	W -1.5	U 8

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Tampa Bay Rays

Overall5–5–0W–L–TRun line3–7–0W–L–PO/U4–6–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
8/26/26	@ DET	W 3–0	W +1.5	U 7.5
8/25/26	@ DET	L 1–4	L -1.5	U 8
8/24/26	@ DET	W 4–1	W -1.5	U 7.5
8/23/26	@ BAL	W 3–1	W -1.5	U 8.5
8/22/26	@ BAL	L 2–3	L -1.5	U 8.5
8/21/26	@ BAL	L 3–5	L +1.5	O 7.5
8/20/26	vs TOR	L 1–5	L -1.5	U 7.5
8/19/26	vs TOR	W 7–6	L -1.5	O 7
8/18/26	vs TOR	L 5–10	L -1.5	O 7.5
8/17/26	vs BAL	W 7–6	L -1.5	O 7.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Padres and Rays
	Statistic
N/A (8.1)	Hits	N/A (8.7)
N/A (1.4)	Doubles	N/A (1.4)
N/A (1.1)	Home Runs	N/A (1.0)
N/A (13.2)	Total Bases	N/A (13.5)
N/A (3.4)	Walks	N/A (3.2)
N/A (8.1)	Strikeouts	N/A (7.1)
N/A (1.0)	Stolen Bases	N/A (1.0)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

PadresCasey MizeConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+11845.9%Under-15660.9%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-16562.3%Under+12444.6%

Total Outs Recorded15.5Over-11553.5%Under-11653.7%

Total Strikeouts3.5Over-10952.2%Under-11753.9%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+12444.6%Under-16562.3%

RaysShane McClanahanConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-11252.8%Under-11954.3%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over+10648.5%Under-14058.3%

Total Outs Recorded15.5Over+17336.6%Under-23370.0%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over-10250.5%Under-12655.8%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+10050.0%Under-13256.9%

Starting lineups

San Diego PadresConfirmed

1Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterFernando Tatis Jr.+76011.6%
Total Bases1.5Over+11845.9%Under-15761.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42619.0%Under-67087.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-24070.6%Under+17836.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12255.0%Under-10952.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19633.8%Under-27973.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10149.8%Under-13958.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11553.5%Under-12054.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+25528.2%Under-37278.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+13342.9%Under-18564.9%
2Luis RengifoLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterLuis Rengifo+19404.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49916.7%Under-81089.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-19866.4%Under+14840.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11247.2%Under-14859.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28026.3%Under-41280.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17037.0%Under-24070.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13256.9%Under-10451.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+50516.5%Under-82089.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+30025.0%Under-44581.7%
3Manny Machado3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterManny Machado+9909.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48617.1%Under-78088.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-18164.4%Under+13542.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11247.2%Under-14859.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20432.9%Under-29174.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14940.2%Under-20867.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11247.2%Under-15560.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17636.2%Under-24971.3%
4Ty France1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterTy France+12607.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48617.1%Under-78088.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-18464.8%Under+13842.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10648.5%Under-14058.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20932.4%Under-29974.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14740.5%Under-20667.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10350.7%Under-13457.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24828.7%Under-36178.3%
5Jackson MerrillCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJackson Merrill+14806.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48417.1%Under-78088.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-19866.4%Under+14840.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10548.8%Under-14058.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24529.0%Under-35678.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15838.8%Under-22168.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11252.8%Under-12355.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+55015.4%Under-91090.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+27626.6%Under-40780.3%
6Xander BogaertsSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterXander Bogaerts+19205.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+52616.0%Under-86089.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-17663.8%Under+13243.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12245.0%Under-16261.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27127.0%Under-39879.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17636.2%Under-24971.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10952.2%Under-12755.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+48217.2%Under-77088.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20233.1%Under-28874.2%
7Austin HaysDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterAustin Hays+15606.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+53315.8%Under-87089.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-14358.8%Under+10848.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17563.6%Under+13143.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25628.1%Under-37478.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19833.6%Under-28273.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12544.4%Under-17463.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28226.2%Under-41680.6%
8Freddy FerminC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterFreddy Fermin+20004.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+68012.8%Under-120092.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-12355.2%Under-10851.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-14659.3%Under+11047.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+32823.4%Under-49383.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+22730.6%Under-32876.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12444.6%Under-17363.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+36021.7%Under-54884.6%
9Jake Cronenworth2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJake Cronenworth+25003.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+71012.3%Under-126092.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-12655.8%Under-10551.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15961.4%Under+12045.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+33523.0%Under-50483.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19633.8%Under-27973.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12245.0%Under-16962.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22231.1%Under-31976.1%

Tampa Bay RaysConfirmed

1Yandy DiazDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterYandy Diaz+10608.6%
Total Bases1.5Over+12045.5%Under-16061.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+35721.9%Under-54384.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13457.3%Under+10149.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21132.2%Under-30275.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10249.5%Under-14158.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-14559.2%Under+10548.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19533.9%Under-27773.5%
2Jonathan Aranda1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJonathan Aranda+10009.1%
Total Bases1.5Over+14241.3%Under-19065.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38820.5%Under-59885.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-20767.4%Under+15439.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11152.6%Under-11954.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22031.3%Under-31676.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11446.7%Under-15861.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10651.5%Under-13056.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20233.1%Under-28874.2%
3Junior Caminero3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJunior Caminero+49616.8%
Total Bases1.5Over-10150.2%Under-13156.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44318.4%Under-70087.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-27473.3%Under+20133.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14258.7%Under+10748.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+13442.7%Under-18765.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10651.5%Under-13156.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11353.1%Under-12255.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17236.8%Under-24370.8%
4Liam HicksC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterLiam Hicks+16205.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44418.4%Under-70087.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-19766.3%Under+14740.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10748.3%Under-14258.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23030.3%Under-33176.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16837.3%Under-23670.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11252.8%Under-12455.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19933.4%Under-28373.9%
5Chandler SimpsonLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterChandler Simpson+72001.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45917.9%Under-73088.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-22969.6%Under+17037.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10350.7%Under-12956.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26527.4%Under-38879.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18235.5%Under-25872.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-16261.8%Under+11746.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+28426.0%Under-42080.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+39520.2%Under-61085.9%
6Jonny DeLucaRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJonny DeLuca+14806.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45018.2%Under-71087.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-18364.7%Under+13742.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11047.6%Under-14659.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22331.0%Under-32176.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16737.5%Under-23670.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10551.2%Under-13156.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+33523.0%Under-50483.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+35322.1%Under-53684.3%
7Cedric MullinsCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterCedric Mullins+12607.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+53715.7%Under-88089.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-13357.1%Under+10050.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16762.5%Under+12644.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23729.7%Under-34377.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17336.6%Under-24470.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14041.7%Under-19566.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+38520.6%Under-59385.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25428.2%Under-37178.8%
8Jorge Mateo2B
Player props1 market
First Home Run HitterJorge Mateo+15206.2%
9Taylor WallsSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterTaylor Walls+25003.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+55415.3%Under-91090.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-11954.3%Under-11152.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16662.4%Under+12444.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+31823.9%Under-47582.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17736.1%Under-25071.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13542.6%Under-18865.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+52416.0%Under-86089.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19334.1%Under-27573.3%

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