MLB matchup

08/28/20267:10 PMCiti FieldQueens, NY80°F · Partly sunny

Astros77 – 78vsMets71 – 84

Sharp side

✈️ Astros -105

Model value

Sharp total

↑ Over 7.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Houston Astros	4.0	53.5%
New York Mets	3.6	46.5%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Houston Astros	B	A-	B+
New York Mets	B	B	B

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU-105-1.5 (+145)

NYM-102+1.5 (-176)

Total 7.5Over -114Under -105

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU-110-1.5 (+145)

NYM-110+1.5 (-175)

Total 7.5Over -118Under -102

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU-108-1.5 (+155)

NYM-106+1.5 (-195)

Total 7.5Over -117Under -104

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU-105-1.5 (+150)

NYM-105+1.5 (-178)

Total 7.5Over -115Under -105

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU-110-1.5 (+150)

NYM+100+1.5 (-170)

Total 7.5Over -120Under +100

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU-115-1.5 (+150)

NYM-105+1.5 (-185)

Total 7.5Over -115Under -105

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU-106-1.5 (+138)

NYM-102+1.5 (-166)

Total 7.5Over -122Under +100

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU-105-1.5 (+155)

NYM-105+1.5 (-165)

Total 7.5Over -115Under +105

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU-105-1.5 (+150)

NYM-105+1.5 (-180)

Total 7.5Over -120Under +100

Recent form

Last 10 games

Houston Astros

Overall4–6–0W–L–TRun line3–7–0W–L–PO/U4–6–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
8/27/26	@ NYY	W 5–1	W +1.5	U 8
8/26/26	@ NYY	L 3–9	L +1.5	O 9
8/25/26	@ NYY	W 9–7	W +1.5	O 9
8/23/26	vs ATH	L 6–7	L -1.5	O 8.5
8/22/26	vs ATH	L 3–4	L -1.5	U 8
8/21/26	vs ATH	W 4–0	W -1.5	U 8.5
8/20/26	vs LAA	L 3–18	L -1.5	O 8
8/19/26	vs LAA	W 3–2	L -1.5	U 8.5
8/18/26	vs LAA	L 1–3	L -1.5	U 9
8/16/26	vs SEA	L 2–3	L -1.5	U 8

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

New York Mets

Overall5–5–0W–L–TRun line3–7–0W–L–PO/U4–6–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
8/27/26	vs MIL	L 2–8	L +1.5	O 7
8/26/26	vs MIL	L 1–8	L +1.5	O 8.5
8/25/26	vs MIL	W 3–2	W +1.5	U 7.5
8/23/26	@ CHW	L 1–2	L -1.5	U 8.5
8/22/26	@ CHW	W 10–5	W -1.5	O 8.5
8/21/26	@ CHW	L 4–6	L +1.5	O 8
8/19/26	vs SD	W 4–2	W +1.5	U 8.5
8/18/26	vs SD	L 2–5	L +1.5	U 8.5
8/17/26	vs SD	W 2–1	L -1.5	U 7.5
8/16/26	vs WSH	W 4–3	L -1.5	U 8.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Astros and Mets
	Statistic
N/A (8.0)	Hits	N/A (8.0)
N/A (1.5)	Doubles	N/A (1.3)
N/A (1.3)	Home Runs	N/A (1.2)
N/A (13.8)	Total Bases	N/A (13.3)
N/A (3.2)	Walks	N/A (3.2)
N/A (8.2)	Strikeouts	N/A (8.4)
N/A (0.3)	Stolen Bases	N/A (0.6)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

AstrosHunter BrownConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+11746.1%Under-15660.9%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-12856.1%Under-10451.0%

Total Outs Recorded17.5Over-11653.7%Under-11453.3%

Total Strikeouts5.5Over+11746.1%Under-15060.0%

Total Walks Allowed2.5Over+11845.9%Under-15660.9%

MetsChristian ScottConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+13043.5%Under-17363.4%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-10451.0%Under-12856.1%

Total Outs Recorded15.5Over-13457.3%Under+10149.8%

Total Strikeouts5.5Over-15260.3%Under+11945.7%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-10350.7%Under-12956.3%

Starting lineups

Houston AstrosConfirmed

1Jeremy PenaSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJeremy Pena+10408.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+12943.7%Under-17263.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37820.9%Under-58085.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-22469.1%Under+16637.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11252.8%Under-11954.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23729.7%Under-34277.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11945.7%Under-16462.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11553.5%Under-12054.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+65013.3%Under-112091.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26927.1%Under-39579.8%
2Yordan AlvarezDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterYordan Alvarez+51416.3%
Total Bases1.5Over-10150.2%Under-13156.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+36421.6%Under-55584.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-25071.4%Under+18435.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13858.0%Under+10449.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+14540.8%Under-20266.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11753.9%Under-11854.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11047.6%Under-15360.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+10149.8%Under-13958.2%
3Isaac Paredes3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterIsaac Paredes+12007.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50816.4%Under-82089.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-14859.7%Under+11147.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12744.1%Under-17063.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23429.9%Under-33877.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14940.2%Under-20867.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12644.2%Under-17563.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+12744.1%Under-17663.8%
4Jose Altuve2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJose Altuve+15206.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+51316.3%Under-83089.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-19666.2%Under+14740.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10149.8%Under-13457.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21631.6%Under-31075.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21468.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11954.3%Under-11653.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22430.9%Under-32376.4%
5Daulton VarshoCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterDaulton Varsho+12007.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42818.9%Under-67087.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-16562.3%Under+12444.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11147.4%Under-14759.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20133.2%Under-28774.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14640.7%Under-20467.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16662.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9509.5%Under-182094.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20732.6%Under-29674.7%
6Christian Walker1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterChristian Walker+10208.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50216.6%Under-81089.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-16161.7%Under+12145.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11546.5%Under-15360.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20033.3%Under-28674.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14441.0%Under-20266.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13043.5%Under-18164.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19733.7%Under-28073.7%
7Yainer DiazC
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterYainer Diaz+14806.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+14840.3%Under-19966.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42719.0%Under-67087.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-20467.1%Under+15239.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10249.5%Under-13557.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22630.7%Under-32676.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21568.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10952.2%Under-12755.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+29825.1%Under-44281.5%
8Taylor TrammellRF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterTaylor Trammell+11408.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+61014.1%Under-104091.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-10250.5%Under-13056.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-13056.5%Under-10250.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27826.5%Under-40880.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17636.2%Under-24871.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+19633.8%Under-28073.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19533.9%Under-27873.5%
9Nelson VelazquezLF
Player props7 markets
First Home Run HitterNelson Velazquez+12807.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+68012.8%Under-120092.3%
Total Hits0.5Over+11147.4%Under-14759.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-11553.5%Under-11553.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+29525.3%Under-43781.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19234.2%Under-27373.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26427.5%Under-38679.4%

New York MetsConfirmed

1A.J. EwingCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterA.J. Ewing+14006.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46017.9%Under-73088.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-17463.5%Under+13143.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10449.0%Under-13858.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26627.3%Under-39079.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11646.3%Under-16061.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10349.3%Under-14358.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+30724.6%Under-45782.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+12744.1%Under-17663.8%
2Francisco LindorSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterFrancisco Lindor+9809.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50216.6%Under-81089.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-17263.2%Under+12943.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10449.0%Under-13858.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20333.0%Under-28974.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11945.7%Under-16562.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12544.4%Under-17363.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+50016.7%Under-81089.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+11546.5%Under-15961.4%
3Bo Bichette3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterBo Bichette+18405.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45917.9%Under-73088.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-20667.3%Under+15339.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10748.3%Under-14258.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22830.5%Under-32976.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16537.7%Under-23269.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12355.2%Under-11252.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26427.5%Under-38779.5%
4Carson BengeRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterCarson Benge+15006.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+54115.6%Under-89089.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-15961.4%Under+11945.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11845.9%Under-15761.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22331.0%Under-32176.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14640.7%Under-20467.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11147.4%Under-15460.6%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+39520.2%Under-61085.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+12943.7%Under-17964.2%
5Luis Robert Jr.LF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterLuis Robert Jr.+13606.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+55715.2%Under-92090.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-16362.0%Under+12344.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11247.2%Under-14959.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21032.3%Under-30175.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14141.5%Under-19766.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11845.9%Under-16462.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+37621.0%Under-57685.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19733.7%Under-28073.7%
6Jared Young1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJared Young+14206.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+60014.3%Under-102091.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-12255.0%Under-10952.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16662.4%Under+12444.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24429.1%Under-35578.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16338.0%Under-22969.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15639.1%Under-21868.6%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9509.5%Under-182094.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15239.7%Under-21267.9%
7Marcus Semien2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterMarcus Semien+18205.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+58514.6%Under-98090.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-14659.3%Under+11047.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12843.9%Under-17163.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24828.7%Under-36078.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15838.8%Under-22168.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16662.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+65013.3%Under-112091.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19833.6%Under-28373.9%
8Brett BatyDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterBrett Baty+16205.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+73012.0%Under-130092.9%
Total Hits0.5Over+11047.6%Under-14559.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-12655.8%Under-10651.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+29725.2%Under-44181.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18734.8%Under-26672.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+19833.6%Under-28273.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16537.7%Under-23269.9%
9Luis TorrensC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterLuis Torrens+27003.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+64013.5%Under-110091.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-12054.5%Under-11052.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15160.2%Under+11446.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+32023.8%Under-47982.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+21331.9%Under-30675.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13542.6%Under-18865.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31724.0%Under-47482.6%

Get the complete matchup

Unlock every rated bet and the complete matchup intelligence with Premium.

Start 7-day free trial