MLB matchup

08/28/20268:15 PMBusch StadiumSt. Louis, MO81°F · Mostly sunny

Pirates79 – 77vsCardinals76 – 80

Sharp side

✈️ Pirates -113

Model value

Sharp total

↑ Over 7.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Pittsburgh Pirates	4.3	53.7%
St. Louis Cardinals	3.9	46.3%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Pittsburgh Pirates	C+	B	B-
St. Louis Cardinals	C	C+	C

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

PIT-113-1.5 (+144)

STL+105+1.5 (-175)

Total 7.5Over -105Under -114

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

PIT-118-1.5 (+145)

STL-102+1.5 (-175)

Total 7.5Over -105Under -115

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

PIT-112-1.5 (+155)

STL-103+1.5 (-195)

Total 7.5Over +102Under -122

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

PIT-115-1.5 (+143)

STL+105+1.5 (-170)

Total 7.5Over +100Under -120

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

PIT-115-1.5 (+150)

STL+105+1.5 (-170)

Total 7.5Over -105Under -115

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

PIT-115-1.5 (+145)

STL-105+1.5 (-180)

Total 7.5Over -105Under -115

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

PIT-112-1.5 (+146)

STL+104+1.5 (-178)

Total 7.5Over +100Under -120

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

PIT-115-1.5 (+155)

STL+105+1.5 (-165)

Total 7.5Over +100Under -110

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

PIT-115-1.5 (+145)

STL+102+1.5 (-175)

Total 7.5Over -105Under -115

Recent form

Last 10 games

Pittsburgh Pirates

Overall5–5–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U3–7–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
8/26/26	@ SD	L 0–3	L +1.5	U 8.5
8/25/26	@ SD	W 1–0	W +1.5	U 7
8/24/26	@ SD	W 3–2	L -1.5	U 7.5
8/23/26	@ LAD	L 0–4	L +1.5	U 8.5
8/22/26	@ LAD	L 3–4	W +1.5	U 7.5
8/21/26	@ LAD	L 4–5	W +1.5	O 8
8/19/26	vs DET	W 4–3	L -1.5	U 8.5
8/18/26	vs DET	W 4–1	W -1.5	U 8
8/17/26	vs DET	L 5–8	L +1.5	O 8.5
8/16/26	vs BOS	W 8–3	W +1.5	O 8

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

St. Louis Cardinals

Overall3–7–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U9–1–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
8/27/26	vs BAL	W 7–5	W +1.5	O 8
8/26/26	vs BAL	L 7–8	W +1.5	O 8.5
8/25/26	vs BAL	L 1–13	L -1.5	O 8
8/23/26	@ PHI	L 4–6	L +1.5	O 8
8/22/26	@ PHI	L 3–12	L +1.5	O 9
8/21/26	@ PHI	L 6–7	W +1.5	O 8
8/20/26	@ CIN	W 10–9	L -1.5	O 9
8/19/26	@ CIN	L 4–5	W +1.5	O 8.5
8/18/26	@ CIN	W 3–0	W -1.5	U 9
8/17/26	@ CIN	L 5–6	L -1.5	O 9

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Pirates and Cardinals
	Statistic
N/A (8.7)	Hits	N/A (8.2)
N/A (1.6)	Doubles	N/A (1.5)
N/A (1.2)	Home Runs	N/A (1.0)
N/A (13.9)	Total Bases	N/A (12.9)
N/A (3.5)	Walks	N/A (3.2)
N/A (9.3)	Strikeouts	N/A (8.0)
N/A (0.8)	Stolen Bases	N/A (0.6)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

PiratesJared JonesConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-15961.4%Under+12045.5%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over+11746.1%Under-15560.8%

Total Outs Recorded15.5Over+13143.3%Under-17463.5%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over-15861.2%Under+12444.6%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-13357.1%Under+10149.8%

CardinalsQuinn MathewsConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+12744.1%Under-16962.8%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-11052.4%Under-12054.5%

Total Outs Recorded16.5Over+10249.5%Under-13557.4%

Total Strikeouts5.5Over-11052.4%Under-11653.7%

Total Walks Allowed2.5Over+15439.4%Under-20667.3%

Starting lineups

Pittsburgh PiratesConfirmed

1Jared TrioloSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJared Triolo+15206.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38820.5%Under-59885.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-20467.1%Under+15239.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10451.0%Under-12856.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+30025.0%Under-44681.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11446.7%Under-15861.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11854.1%Under-11753.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+60014.3%Under-102091.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14241.3%Under-19866.4%
2Esmerlyn ValdezRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterEsmerlyn Valdez+72012.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+13243.1%Under-17663.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39820.1%Under-62086.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-19566.1%Under+14640.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10952.2%Under-12255.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19134.4%Under-27173.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10149.8%Under-13958.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11845.9%Under-16462.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+10249.5%Under-14158.5%
3Bryan ReynoldsDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterBryan Reynolds+10608.6%
Total Bases1.5Over+13243.1%Under-17663.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+33323.1%Under-50283.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-22068.8%Under+16437.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10851.9%Under-12355.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20133.2%Under-28774.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12544.4%Under-17463.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11152.6%Under-12555.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+13143.3%Under-18264.5%
4Oneil CruzCF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterOneil Cruz+88010.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+14041.7%Under-18765.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41719.3%Under-65086.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-18865.3%Under+14041.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10651.5%Under-12555.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17336.6%Under-24470.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12145.2%Under-16862.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11446.7%Under-15861.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+44918.2%Under-71087.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14241.3%Under-19766.3%
5Nick Gonzales2B
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterNick Gonzales+23004.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+13842.0%Under-18564.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+35621.9%Under-54184.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-24571.0%Under+18135.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11553.5%Under-11553.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20233.1%Under-28974.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15738.9%Under-22068.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-14258.7%Under+10349.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+11008.3%Under-220095.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23030.3%Under-33276.9%
6Rafael Flores Jr.1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterRafael Flores Jr.+14006.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44118.5%Under-70087.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-14659.3%Under+11047.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13143.3%Under-17563.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23729.7%Under-34477.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17136.9%Under-24170.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12544.4%Under-17363.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18035.7%Under-25571.8%
7Jake MangumLF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJake Mangum+22004.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47217.5%Under-75088.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-20066.7%Under+14940.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11147.4%Under-14859.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24728.8%Under-35978.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19134.4%Under-27173.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12755.9%Under-10952.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+33523.0%Under-50483.4%
8Nick Yorke3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterNick Yorke+16205.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+56015.2%Under-93090.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-14058.3%Under+10648.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17463.5%Under+13043.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28426.0%Under-41980.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19533.9%Under-27873.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10748.3%Under-14859.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+10408.8%Under-210095.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+29425.4%Under-43581.3%
9Henry DavisC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterHenry Davis+14006.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+51716.2%Under-84089.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-11954.3%Under-11152.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15460.6%Under+11646.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26927.1%Under-39579.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17935.8%Under-25471.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15838.8%Under-22268.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22331.0%Under-32176.2%

St. Louis CardinalsConfirmed

1JJ WetherholtSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJJ Wetherholt+13007.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41119.6%Under-64086.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-19966.6%Under+14940.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10349.3%Under-13657.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+29625.3%Under-43981.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11945.7%Under-16462.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10851.9%Under-12856.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+89010.1%Under-168094.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+12644.2%Under-17663.8%
2Ivan HerreraDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterIvan Herrera+17005.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+36521.5%Under-55884.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-19866.4%Under+14840.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10249.5%Under-13557.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28526.0%Under-42180.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13043.5%Under-18064.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11453.3%Under-12154.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17136.9%Under-24270.8%
3Alec Burleson1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterAlec Burleson+9109.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+12245.0%Under-16362.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+31024.4%Under-46382.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-22369.0%Under+16637.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11052.4%Under-12054.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18635.0%Under-26472.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12943.7%Under-17964.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10249.5%Under-14158.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19633.8%Under-27973.6%
4Jordan WalkerRF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJordan Walker+9609.4%
Total Bases1.5Over+13642.4%Under-18264.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37920.9%Under-58285.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-19265.8%Under+14341.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10149.8%Under-13457.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18435.2%Under-26072.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14141.5%Under-19766.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11147.4%Under-15360.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+85010.5%Under-156094.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25428.2%Under-37078.7%
5Jose Fermin2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJose Fermin+21004.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41519.4%Under-65086.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-17563.6%Under+13143.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11646.3%Under-15560.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24628.9%Under-35878.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17336.6%Under-24470.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10150.2%Under-13757.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+87010.3%Under-164094.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18035.7%Under-25571.8%
6Nathan ChurchCF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterNathan Church+16605.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48117.2%Under-77088.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-15560.8%Under+11746.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26827.2%Under-39379.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+20333.0%Under-28974.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10947.8%Under-15160.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+85010.5%Under-156094.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24129.3%Under-34977.7%
7Joshua BáezLF
8Nolan Gorman3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterNolan Gorman+14206.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+64013.5%Under-110091.7%
Total Hits0.5Over+11746.1%Under-15560.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-11252.8%Under-11854.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+30624.6%Under-45682.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+21431.8%Under-30775.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+24529.0%Under-35678.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19633.8%Under-28073.7%
9Jimmy CrooksC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJimmy Crooks+18205.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+58914.5%Under-98090.7%
Total Hits0.5Over+10648.5%Under-14158.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-12154.8%Under-10952.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+34722.4%Under-52684.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+22331.0%Under-32176.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+19034.5%Under-27173.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+27626.6%Under-40680.2%

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