MLB matchup

09/05/20266:05 PMCitizens B ParkPhiladelphia, PA80°F · Mostly sunny

Braves91 – 64vsPhillies85 – 70

Sharp side

🏠 Phillies -166

Model value

Sharp total

↓ Under 8

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Atlanta Braves	3.3	35.8%
Philadelphia Phillies	4.7	64.2%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Atlanta Braves	B+	B-	B
Philadelphia Phillies	A-	A	A

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

ATL+137+1.5 (-157)

PHI-166-1.5 (+130)

Total 8.0Over -115Under -104

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

ATL+135+1.5 (-155)

PHI-165-1.5 (+125)

Total 8.0Over -118Under -102

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

ATL+138+1.5 (-157)

PHI-167-1.5 (+128)

Total 7.5Over -129Under +106

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

ATL+143+1.5 (-155)

PHI-153-1.5 (+130)

Total 8.0Over -115Under -105

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

ATL+145+1.5 (-150)

PHI-156-1.5 (+130)

Total 8.0Over -115Under -105

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

ATL+135+1.5 (-165)

PHI-165-1.5 (+135)

Total 8.0Over -115Under -105

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

ATL+138+1.5 (-160)

PHI-164-1.5 (+132)

Total 8.5Over -104Under -118

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

ATL+135+1.5 (-160)

PHI-160-1.5 (+135)

Total 8.5Over +100Under -120

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

ATL+140+1.5 (-160)

PHI-159-1.5 (+135)

Total 8.5Over +100Under -120

Recent form

Last 10 games

Atlanta Braves

Overall8–2–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U4–5–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/4/26	@ PHI	W 5–2	W -1.5	P 7
9/2/26	@ WSH	W 9–0	W -1.5	U 9.5
9/1/26	@ WSH	L 5–9	L -1.5	O 10
8/31/26	vs SF	L 3–7	L -1.5	O 9
8/30/26	vs COL	W 3–2	L -1.5	U 8.5
8/29/26	vs COL	W 2–1	L -1.5	U 8.5
8/28/26	vs COL	W 6–4	W -1.5	O 9
8/27/26	vs LAD	W 1–0	L -1.5	U 6.5
8/26/26	vs LAD	W 6–5	W +1.5	O 8.5
8/25/26	vs LAD	W 4–3	W +1.5	U 8.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Philadelphia Phillies

Overall6–4–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U3–6–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/4/26	vs ATL	L 2–5	L +1.5	P 7
9/2/26	@ ARI	L 0–1	L -1.5	U 8.5
9/1/26	@ ARI	W 7–1	W -1.5	O 7.5
8/31/26	@ ARI	W 2–1	L -1.5	U 8
8/30/26	@ LAA	W 5–2	W -1.5	U 7.5
8/29/26	@ LAA	W 4–2	W -1.5	U 8.5
8/28/26	@ LAA	W 5–3	W -1.5	O 7.5
8/26/26	@ SEA	W 6–0	W -1.5	U 7
8/25/26	@ SEA	L 1–4	L -1.5	U 8
8/24/26	@ SEA	L 2–9	L -1.5	O 6.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Braves and Phillies
	Statistic
7.2 (8.4)	Hits	8.3 (8.2)
1.3 (1.6)	Doubles	1.5 (1.5)
1.0 (1.3)	Home Runs	1.3 (1.3)
11.7 (14.1)	Total Bases	14.0 (13.7)
2.6 (3.0)	Walks	3.2 (3.2)
8.2 (8.0)	Strikeouts	8.4 (8.4)
0.5 (0.5)	Stolen Bases	0.7 (0.6)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

BravesMartin PerezConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over-11553.5%Under-11553.5%

Total Hits Allowed5.5Over+10848.1%Under-14459.0%

Total Outs Recorded14.5Over-18064.3%Under+13442.7%

Total Strikeouts3.5Over+10548.8%Under-13357.1%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-13858.0%Under+10449.0%

PhilliesZack WheelerConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-16662.4%Under+12544.4%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-11252.8%Under-11854.1%

Total Outs Recorded17.5Over-11453.3%Under-11753.9%

Total Strikeouts6.5Over+10548.8%Under-13457.3%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-10350.7%Under-12956.3%

Starting lineups

Atlanta BravesConfirmed

1Drake BaldwinC
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterDrake Baldwin+80011.1%
Total Bases1.5Over+13642.4%Under-18264.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46417.7%Under-74088.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-20266.9%Under+15139.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10851.9%Under-12355.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20932.4%Under-29974.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11446.7%Under-15861.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10249.5%Under-14158.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18734.8%Under-26572.6%
2Ronald Acuna Jr.RF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterRonald Acuna Jr.+10208.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41519.4%Under-65086.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-18164.4%Under+13642.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10449.0%Under-13757.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23829.6%Under-34577.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12145.2%Under-16762.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11247.2%Under-15560.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+41019.6%Under-64086.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15239.7%Under-21368.1%
3Matt Olson1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterMatt Olson+68012.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48517.1%Under-78088.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-17563.6%Under+13143.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10249.5%Under-13657.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17436.5%Under-24671.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11446.7%Under-15861.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14341.2%Under-20066.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+12145.2%Under-16762.5%
4Michael Harris IICF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterMichael Harris II+9709.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+12744.1%Under-17063.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40919.6%Under-64086.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-21067.7%Under+15738.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10851.9%Under-12355.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17536.4%Under-24871.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13941.8%Under-19365.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10150.2%Under-13757.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+77011.5%Under-138093.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+30524.7%Under-45381.9%
5Mauricio DubonLF
Player props7 markets
First Home Run HitterMauricio Dubon+27003.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+51016.4%Under-83089.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-21668.4%Under+16138.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10947.8%Under-14459.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27326.8%Under-40180.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17935.8%Under-25471.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-14258.7%Under+10349.3%
6Ozzie Albies2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterOzzie Albies+14206.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42319.1%Under-66086.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-16862.7%Under+12644.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12045.5%Under-16061.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23230.1%Under-33577.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16937.2%Under-23870.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11845.9%Under-16362.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9509.5%Under-182094.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22630.7%Under-32576.5%
7Dominic SmithDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterDominic Smith+17005.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+58914.5%Under-99090.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-12455.4%Under-10751.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15360.5%Under+11546.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+30424.8%Under-45281.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+21531.7%Under-30875.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13342.9%Under-18564.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+27027.0%Under-39779.9%
8Austin Riley3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterAustin Riley+14606.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50916.4%Under-82089.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-12856.1%Under-10451.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15660.9%Under+11746.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24529.0%Under-35578.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18235.5%Under-25772.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15139.8%Under-21267.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28126.2%Under-41480.5%
9Ha-Seong KimSS
Player props7 markets
First Home Run HitterHa-Seong Kim+21004.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+64013.5%Under-110091.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-11052.4%Under-12054.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-13757.8%Under+10449.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+36721.4%Under-56084.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+21931.3%Under-31575.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14640.7%Under-20467.1%

Philadelphia PhilliesConfirmed

1Kyle SchwarberDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterKyle Schwarber+57814.7%
Total Bases1.5Over+12145.2%Under-16261.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+51116.4%Under-83089.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-19966.6%Under+14940.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12655.8%Under-10551.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+15239.7%Under-21267.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-12956.3%Under-10751.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12843.9%Under-17763.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+10548.8%Under-14559.2%
2Trea TurnerSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterTrea Turner+11807.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+11247.2%Under-14859.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+35022.2%Under-53184.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-27473.3%Under+20133.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13858.0%Under+10449.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19434.0%Under-27773.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10250.5%Under-13557.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13557.4%Under-10250.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+58314.6%Under-97090.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18834.7%Under-26772.8%
3Bryce HarperRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterBryce Harper+11008.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+12843.9%Under-17063.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46917.6%Under-75088.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-22669.3%Under+16837.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12455.4%Under-10751.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17836.0%Under-25271.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10449.0%Under-14459.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11653.7%Under-11954.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+11446.7%Under-15861.2%
4Luis Arraez2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterLuis Arraez+30003.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+14341.2%Under-19165.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43718.6%Under-69087.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-26972.9%Under+19833.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12555.6%Under-10651.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19733.7%Under-28173.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14241.3%Under-19866.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-17363.4%Under+12544.4%
5Alec Bohm1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterAlec Bohm+14806.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+13143.3%Under-17563.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37621.0%Under-57585.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-24671.1%Under+18135.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12555.6%Under-10651.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+15938.6%Under-22369.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12145.2%Under-16762.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12655.8%Under-10952.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22430.9%Under-32276.3%
6Edmundo SosaLF
Player props7 markets
First Home Run HitterEdmundo Sosa+13606.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45218.1%Under-72087.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-16462.1%Under+12344.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11047.6%Under-14659.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22331.0%Under-32076.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15139.8%Under-21167.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11247.2%Under-15560.8%
7J.T. RealmutoC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJ.T. Realmuto+16205.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40919.6%Under-64086.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-19365.9%Under+14441.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10349.3%Under-13657.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20233.1%Under-28874.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13941.8%Under-19466.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10149.8%Under-14058.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19434.0%Under-27773.5%
8Bryson Stott3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterBryson Stott+25003.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+54515.5%Under-90090.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-18264.5%Under+13642.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11047.6%Under-14759.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24029.4%Under-34877.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15738.9%Under-22068.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11653.7%Under-11954.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+55815.2%Under-92090.2%
9Derek HillCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterDerek Hill+17605.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+56015.2%Under-93090.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-12054.5%Under-11052.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15460.6%Under+11646.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26827.2%Under-39279.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18135.6%Under-25671.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14540.8%Under-20266.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+70012.5%Under-124092.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+29825.1%Under-44281.5%

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