MLB matchup

09/05/20266:10 PMProgressive FieldCleveland, OH73°F · Sunny

Tigers73 – 83vsGuardians81 – 75

Sharp side

✈️ Tigers +134

Model value

Sharp total

↓ Under 7

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Detroit Tigers	3.4	48.6%
Cleveland Guardians	3.5	51.4%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Detroit Tigers	B-	B+	B
Cleveland Guardians	D+	A-	B-

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

DET+134+1.5 (-167)

CLE-163-1.5 (+138)

Total 7.0Over -102Under -119

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

DET+135+1.5 (-160)

CLE-160-1.5 (+135)

Total 7.0Over -102Under -118

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

DET+143+1.5 (-167)

CLE-175-1.5 (+135)

Total 6.5Over -125Under +104

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

DET+147+1.5 (-165)

CLE-157-1.5 (+140)

Total 7.0Over +100Under -120

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

DET+143+1.5 (-165)

CLE-154-1.5 (+145)

Total 7.0Over +100Under -120

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

DET+135+1.5 (-170)

CLE-165-1.5 (+140)

Total 7.0Over -105Under -115

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

DET+134+1.5 (-170)

CLE-158-1.5 (+140)

Total 7.0Over -102Under -120

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

DET+130+1.5 (-170)

CLE-160-1.5 (+135)

Total 6.5Over -135Under +110

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

DET+140+1.5 (-165)

CLE-159-1.5 (+140)

Total 6.5Over -135Under +115

Recent form

Last 10 games

Detroit Tigers

Overall3–7–0W–L–TRun line6–4–0W–L–PO/U4–6–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/4/26	@ CLE	L 3–4	W +1.5	U 7.5
9/4/26	@ CLE	L 6–7	W +1.5	O 8
9/2/26	@ MIN	W 11–6	W +1.5	O 8.5
9/1/26	@ MIN	L 2–15	L -1.5	O 8.5
8/31/26	@ MIN	L 1–11	L +1.5	O 9
8/30/26	vs LAD	L 1–6	L +1.5	U 7.5
8/29/26	vs LAD	W 2–1	W +1.5	U 7
8/28/26	vs LAD	L 1–2	W +1.5	U 7.5
8/26/26	vs TB	L 0–3	L -1.5	U 7.5
8/25/26	vs TB	W 4–1	W +1.5	U 8

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Cleveland Guardians

Overall6–4–0W–L–TRun line3–7–0W–L–PO/U6–4–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/4/26	vs DET	W 4–3	L -1.5	U 7.5
9/4/26	vs DET	W 7–6	L -1.5	O 8
9/3/26	vs TOR	L 3–6	L +1.5	O 8
9/2/26	vs TOR	L 0–11	L +1.5	O 7
9/1/26	vs TOR	W 6–1	W -1.5	U 8
8/30/26	vs KC	W 11–1	W -1.5	O 7.5
8/29/26	vs KC	L 3–8	L -1.5	O 8
8/28/26	vs KC	L 0–3	L -1.5	U 7.5
8/26/26	@ LAA	W 4–3	L -1.5	U 8
8/25/26	@ LAA	W 8–6	W -1.5	O 7

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Tigers and Guardians
	Statistic
7.2 (7.9)	Hits	7.3 (7.8)
1.4 (1.5)	Doubles	1.4 (1.6)
0.9 (1.1)	Home Runs	0.8 (0.9)
11.4 (13.1)	Total Bases	11.4 (12.5)
3.3 (3.5)	Walks	3.4 (3.5)
9.0 (8.9)	Strikeouts	8.1 (8.1)
0.3 (0.3)	Stolen Bases	0.9 (0.9)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

TigersFramber ValdezConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+10748.3%Under-14258.7%

Total Hits Allowed5.5Over-10250.5%Under-13056.5%

Total Outs Recorded17.5Over-12856.1%Under-10451.0%

Total Strikeouts3.5Over-15761.1%Under+12344.8%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-17663.8%Under+13243.1%

GuardiansParker MessickConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-12455.4%Under-10751.7%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-13657.6%Under+10249.5%

Total Outs Recorded18.5Over+13442.7%Under-17964.2%

Total Strikeouts6.5Over+10349.3%Under-13156.7%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-14158.5%Under+10648.5%

Starting lineups

Detroit TigersConfirmed

1Gleyber TorresDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterGleyber Torres+11607.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41019.6%Under-64086.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-17763.9%Under+13342.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11646.3%Under-15460.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27926.4%Under-41080.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21668.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10050.0%Under-13858.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+13342.9%Under-18564.9%
2Hao-Yu Lee3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterHao-Yu Lee+12807.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44918.2%Under-71087.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-15761.1%Under+11845.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13642.4%Under-18164.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+30724.6%Under-45782.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18535.1%Under-26272.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11247.2%Under-15460.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+29025.6%Under-42981.1%
3Riley GreeneLF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterRiley Greene+88010.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+51616.2%Under-84089.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-15660.9%Under+11746.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12744.1%Under-17063.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22231.1%Under-32076.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16637.6%Under-23370.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12245.0%Under-16962.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18535.1%Under-26272.4%
4Dillon DinglerC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterDillon Dingler+10408.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43818.6%Under-69087.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-17063.0%Under+12843.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11746.1%Under-15660.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19533.9%Under-27873.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17836.0%Under-25171.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11346.9%Under-15660.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+27726.5%Under-40880.3%
5Ben MalgeriRF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterBen Malgeri+12807.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47417.4%Under-76088.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-14358.8%Under+10748.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17964.2%Under+13442.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+29525.3%Under-43881.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+20333.0%Under-28974.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16662.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22031.3%Under-31676.0%
6Spencer Torkelson1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterSpencer Torkelson+9209.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+55515.3%Under-92090.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-11854.1%Under-11252.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15260.3%Under+11546.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26027.8%Under-38079.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17935.8%Under-25471.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+16937.2%Under-23870.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15738.9%Under-22168.8%
7John PeckSS
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJohn Peck+19205.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+52915.9%Under-86089.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-12255.0%Under-10952.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15260.3%Under+11546.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+34322.6%Under-51983.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+23429.9%Under-33877.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14141.5%Under-19666.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+27726.5%Under-40780.3%
8Zach McKinstryCF
Player props7 markets
First Home Run HitterZach McKinstry+20004.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+59614.4%Under-100090.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-12455.4%Under-10751.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-14759.5%Under+11047.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+34122.7%Under-51483.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+25028.6%Under-36378.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12544.4%Under-17363.4%
9Javier Baez2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJavier Baez+25003.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+51616.2%Under-84089.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-13958.2%Under+10449.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16662.4%Under+12544.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+34822.3%Under-52884.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+24129.3%Under-34977.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11247.2%Under-15660.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+42719.0%Under-67087.0%

Cleveland GuardiansConfirmed

1Steven KwanLF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterSteven Kwan+40002.4%
Total Bases1.5Over+16937.2%Under-22869.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48917.0%Under-79088.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-24070.6%Under+17836.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11553.5%Under-11553.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+32523.5%Under-48883.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12344.8%Under-17063.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-17163.1%Under+12344.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+73012.0%Under-128092.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16038.5%Under-22569.2%
2Angel MartinezRF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterAngel Martinez+14406.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+13642.4%Under-18264.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+35422.0%Under-53884.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-23770.3%Under+17636.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12054.5%Under-11052.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22331.0%Under-32176.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11746.1%Under-16362.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13256.9%Under-10551.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+78011.4%Under-142093.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+27626.6%Under-40580.2%
3Jose Ramirez3B
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJose Ramirez+11607.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+12245.0%Under-16261.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+31124.3%Under-46582.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-25671.9%Under+18934.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12755.9%Under-10451.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18535.1%Under-26372.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11446.7%Under-15861.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13156.7%Under-10651.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+26127.7%Under-38179.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16937.2%Under-23870.4%
4Jo AdellDH
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJo Adell+9709.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+12943.7%Under-17263.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+34022.7%Under-51383.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-22369.0%Under+16637.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12054.5%Under-11152.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+15738.9%Under-22068.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12843.9%Under-17864.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10451.0%Under-13357.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9609.4%Under-184094.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23629.8%Under-34177.3%
5David Fry1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterDavid Fry+12207.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+56215.1%Under-93090.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-13657.6%Under+10249.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13342.9%Under-17763.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23529.9%Under-34077.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17536.4%Under-24771.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12843.9%Under-17864.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17836.0%Under-25271.6%
6Angel Genao2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterAngel Genao+18405.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49316.9%Under-79088.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-18865.3%Under+14141.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11147.4%Under-14859.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24129.3%Under-35077.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16537.7%Under-23269.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12054.5%Under-11553.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20333.0%Under-29074.4%
7Petey HalpinCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterPetey Halpin+20004.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+54815.4%Under-90090.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-16061.5%Under+12045.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12843.9%Under-17163.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26627.3%Under-39079.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18235.5%Under-25872.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10050.0%Under-13858.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+65013.3%Under-112091.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+34722.4%Under-52584.0%
8Austin HedgesC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterAustin Hedges+18605.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+66013.2%Under-114091.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-10250.5%Under-13056.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-13457.3%Under+10149.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+34422.5%Under-52183.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+22630.7%Under-32676.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14640.7%Under-20467.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24529.0%Under-35678.1%
9Brayan RocchioSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterBrayan Rocchio+25003.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+52616.0%Under-86089.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-16562.3%Under+12444.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12744.1%Under-16962.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27826.5%Under-40980.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18834.7%Under-26672.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10952.2%Under-12755.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+75011.8%Under-134093.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31823.9%Under-47682.6%

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