MLB matchup

09/05/20266:40 PMPNC ParkPittsburgh, PA78°F · Partly sunny

Angels59 – 95vsPirates78 – 77

Sharp side

🏠 Pirates -193

Model value

Sharp total

↑ Over 7.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Los Angeles Angels	3.6	37.5%
Pittsburgh Pirates	4.8	62.5%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Los Angeles Angels	D	C	C-
Pittsburgh Pirates	C+	B	B

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

LAA+158+1.5 (-143)

PIT-193-1.5 (+119)

Total 7.5Over -110Under -110

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

LAA+155+1.5 (-140)

PIT-190-1.5 (+115)

Total 7.5Over -110Under -110

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

LAA+155+1.5 (-141)

PIT-186-1.5 (+116)

Total 7.5Over -112Under -109

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

LAA+165+1.5 (-130)

PIT-180-1.5 (+110)

Total 7.5Over -110Under -110

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

LAA+166+1.5 (-140)

PIT-180-1.5 (+120)

Total 7.5Over -110Under -110

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

LAA+155+1.5 (-160)

PIT-190-1.5 (+130)

Total 7.5Over -110Under -110

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

LAA+154+1.5 (-144)

PIT-184-1.5 (+120)

Total 7.5Over -114Under -106

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

LAA+155+1.5 (-145)

PIT-190-1.5 (+120)

Total 7.5Over -115Under -105

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

LAA+158+1.5 (-150)

PIT-181-1.5 (+125)

Total 7.5Over -115Under -105

Recent form

Last 10 games

Los Angeles Angels

Overall1–9–0W–L–TRun line3–7–0W–L–PO/U5–5–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/4/26	@ PIT	L 0–1	W +1.5	U 9
9/2/26	vs NYY	L 3–6	L +1.5	O 6.5
9/1/26	vs NYY	L 3–7	L +1.5	O 7
8/31/26	vs NYY	W 10–1	W +1.5	O 8
8/30/26	vs PHI	L 2–5	L +1.5	U 7.5
8/29/26	vs PHI	L 2–4	L +1.5	U 8.5
8/28/26	vs PHI	L 3–5	L +1.5	O 7.5
8/26/26	vs CLE	L 3–4	W +1.5	U 8
8/25/26	vs CLE	L 6–8	L +1.5	O 7
8/24/26	vs CLE	L 2–4	L +1.5	U 7

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Overall7–3–0W–L–TRun line3–7–0W–L–PO/U2–6–2O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/4/26	vs LAA	W 1–0	L -1.5	U 9
9/3/26	vs SF	W 5–2	W -1.5	U 9
9/2/26	vs SF	L 4–5	L -1.5	P 9
9/1/26	vs SF	W 13–12	L -1.5	O 7.5
8/30/26	@ STL	W 5–4	L -1.5	O 7.5
8/29/26	@ STL	W 6–2	W +1.5	P 8
8/28/26	@ STL	L 1–4	L -1.5	U 7.5
8/26/26	@ SD	L 0–3	L +1.5	U 8.5
8/25/26	@ SD	W 1–0	W +1.5	U 7
8/24/26	@ SD	W 3–2	L -1.5	U 7.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Angels and Pirates
	Statistic
7.3 (7.6)	Hits	8.6 (8.5)
1.3 (1.4)	Doubles	1.5 (1.5)
0.9 (1.0)	Home Runs	1.1 (1.1)
11.7 (12.3)	Total Bases	13.7 (13.5)
2.9 (3.0)	Walks	3.6 (3.5)
9.8 (9.7)	Strikeouts	9.5 (9.5)
0.6 (0.6)	Stolen Bases	0.8 (0.8)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

AngelsYusei KikuchiConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+10149.8%Under-13457.3%

Total Hits Allowed5.5Over+10349.3%Under-13757.8%

Total Outs Recorded15.5Over-10952.2%Under-12255.0%

Total Strikeouts5.5Over-10150.2%Under-12655.8%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-13858.0%Under+10449.0%

PiratesBraxton AshcraftConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-12154.8%Under-11052.4%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-12455.4%Under-10751.7%

Total Outs Recorded16.5Over-13557.4%Under+10149.8%

Total Strikeouts6.5Over+12644.2%Under-16161.7%

Total Walks Allowed0.5Over-22969.6%Under+16937.2%

Starting lineups

Los Angeles AngelsConfirmed

1Zach NetoSS
Player props8 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40819.7%Under-64086.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-18665.0%Under+13941.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10648.5%Under-14158.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25328.3%Under-36878.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13542.6%Under-18865.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10648.5%Under-14659.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+49616.8%Under-80088.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+29425.4%Under-43581.3%
2Mike TroutCF
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39320.3%Under-61085.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-18865.3%Under+14141.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10548.8%Under-14058.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23429.9%Under-33877.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12843.9%Under-17763.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10648.5%Under-14659.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15838.8%Under-22168.8%
3Wade MecklerLF
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41119.6%Under-64086.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-19065.5%Under+14241.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12344.8%Under-16462.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+31823.9%Under-47582.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19434.0%Under-27673.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12755.9%Under-10952.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19733.7%Under-28173.8%
4Vaughn Grissom1B
Player props6 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44218.5%Under-70087.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-19566.1%Under+14640.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11047.6%Under-14659.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23030.3%Under-33176.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17636.2%Under-24971.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11954.3%Under-11653.7%
5Moises BallesterosC
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+36721.4%Under-56184.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-18364.7%Under+13742.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11446.7%Under-15160.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23030.3%Under-33276.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17636.2%Under-24871.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10149.8%Under-14058.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24628.9%Under-35778.1%
6Christian MooreDH
Player props8 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50916.4%Under-82089.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-14058.3%Under+10648.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17063.0%Under+12843.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+29225.5%Under-43281.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+20333.0%Under-29074.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16762.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+88010.2%Under-164094.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26727.2%Under-39179.6%
7Josh LoweRF
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43118.8%Under-68087.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-12255.0%Under-10952.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15160.2%Under+11346.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27726.5%Under-40880.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19334.1%Under-27573.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+16837.3%Under-23770.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31224.3%Under-46682.3%
8Denzer Guzman3B
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+51416.3%Under-84089.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-16762.5%Under+12644.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12744.1%Under-17063.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27626.6%Under-40680.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19633.8%Under-27973.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10651.5%Under-13056.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+37021.3%Under-56685.0%
9Adam Frazier2B
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49716.8%Under-80088.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-14459.0%Under+10848.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17063.0%Under+12744.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+32623.5%Under-49083.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+22630.7%Under-32676.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10947.8%Under-15160.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+38620.6%Under-59385.6%

Pittsburgh PiratesConfirmed

1Konnor GriffinSS
Player props8 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+10848.1%Under-14459.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+27526.7%Under-40480.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-27473.3%Under+20133.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14258.7%Under+10748.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19533.9%Under-27873.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10350.7%Under-13457.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12856.1%Under-10751.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20632.7%Under-29574.7%
2Esmerlyn ValdezRF
Player props8 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+13243.1%Under-17663.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+35222.1%Under-53384.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-20266.9%Under+15040.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11353.1%Under-11854.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18435.2%Under-26172.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10149.8%Under-14058.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11247.2%Under-15560.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+13143.3%Under-18264.5%
3Bryan ReynoldsLF
Player props8 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+11945.7%Under-15861.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+31024.4%Under-46282.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-25171.5%Under+18535.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12856.1%Under-10451.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18435.2%Under-26172.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10648.5%Under-14659.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12054.5%Under-11553.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15239.7%Under-21368.1%
4Oneil CruzDH
Player props9 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+11646.3%Under-15460.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+35222.1%Under-53484.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-21468.2%Under+15938.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12655.8%Under-10551.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+15139.8%Under-21167.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10150.2%Under-13757.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11346.9%Under-15660.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+53015.9%Under-87089.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14341.2%Under-20066.7%
5Nick Gonzales2B
Player props8 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+11945.7%Under-15861.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+31923.9%Under-47782.7%
Total Hits1.5Over+19134.4%Under-25972.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14258.7%Under+10748.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17935.8%Under-25371.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12544.4%Under-17463.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-16662.4%Under+12045.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23529.9%Under-34077.3%
6Rafael Flores Jr.C
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+36721.4%Under-56084.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-18464.8%Under+13842.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10050.0%Under-13256.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20233.1%Under-28874.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13243.1%Under-18364.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10748.3%Under-14859.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16138.3%Under-22769.4%
7Jared Triolo3B
Player props8 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48117.2%Under-77088.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-16362.0%Under+12245.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12145.2%Under-16161.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24928.7%Under-36278.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17436.5%Under-24671.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10250.5%Under-13657.6%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9909.2%Under-192095.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23030.3%Under-33176.8%
8Jake MangumCF
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41719.3%Under-65086.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-20467.1%Under+15239.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10150.2%Under-13256.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22131.2%Under-31876.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16038.5%Under-22569.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12455.4%Under-11152.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26727.2%Under-39279.7%
9Nick Yorke1B
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44418.4%Under-70087.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-15460.6%Under+11646.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12245.0%Under-16261.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24928.7%Under-36278.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17736.1%Under-25071.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10848.1%Under-14959.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31724.0%Under-47582.6%

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