MLB matchup

09/05/20267:05 PMGlobe Life Park in ArlingtonArlington, TX

Rays94 – 60vsRangers78 – 77

Sharp side

🏠 Rangers -112

Model value

Sharp total

↑ Over 7

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Tampa Bay Rays	3.3	47.9%
Texas Rangers	3.5	52.1%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Tampa Bay Rays	B	A-	B+
Texas Rangers	C	A-	B

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB-107-1.5 (+154)

TEX-112+1.5 (-188)

Total 7.0Over +104Under -126

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB-105-1.5 (+155)

TEX-115+1.5 (-190)

Total 6.5Over -120Under +100

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB-108-1.5 (+170)

TEX-110+1.5 (-210)

Total 6.5Over -121Under +100

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB-105-1.5 (+158)

TEX-105+1.5 (-190)

Total 7.0Over +110Under -130

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB-104-1.5 (+165)

TEX-106+1.5 (-190)

Total 7.0Over +100Under -120

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB-105-1.5 (+165)

TEX-115+1.5 (-205)

Total 6.5Over -120Under +100

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB-108-1.5 (+155)

TEX-108+1.5 (-188)

Total 6.5Over -124Under +102

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB-110-1.5 (+160)

TEX-110+1.5 (-190)

Total 6.5Over -125Under +105

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB-105-1.5 (+165)

TEX-105+1.5 (-200)

Total 6.5Over -125Under +105

Recent form

Last 10 games

Tampa Bay Rays

Overall6–4–0W–L–TRun line3–7–0W–L–PO/U6–4–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/4/26	@ TEX	W 7–6	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/3/26	@ TEX	L 0–6	L -1.5	U 8
9/2/26	vs NYM	L 4–10	L -1.5	O 8
9/1/26	vs NYM	W 6–2	W -1.5	O 7.5
8/31/26	vs NYM	L 2–3	L -1.5	U 8
8/30/26	vs SD	W 5–4	L -1.5	O 7
8/29/26	vs SD	W 7–6	L -1.5	O 8
8/28/26	vs SD	W 9–4	W -1.5	O 7.5
8/26/26	@ DET	W 3–0	W +1.5	U 7.5
8/25/26	@ DET	L 1–4	L -1.5	U 8

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Texas Rangers

Overall4–6–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U7–2–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/4/26	vs TB	L 6–7	W +1.5	O 8.5
9/3/26	vs TB	W 6–0	W +1.5	U 8
9/2/26	vs ATH	L 2–9	L -1.5	O 7.5
9/1/26	vs ATH	W 8–5	W -1.5	O 7.5
8/31/26	vs ATH	W 8–1	W -1.5	O 7.5
8/30/26	@ MIL	W 7–4	W +1.5	O 8.5
8/29/26	@ MIL	L 3–5	L +1.5	P 8
8/28/26	@ MIL	L 1–6	L +1.5	U 7.5
8/26/26	@ CHW	L 4–10	L +1.5	O 8
8/25/26	@ CHW	L 7–11	L -1.5	O 7

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Rays and Rangers
	Statistic
7.8 (8.7)	Hits	7.4 (7.9)
1.2 (1.4)	Doubles	1.3 (1.5)
0.8 (1.0)	Home Runs	1.0 (1.1)
11.7 (13.5)	Total Bases	11.9 (12.9)
3.0 (3.2)	Walks	3.1 (3.2)
7.5 (7.3)	Strikeouts	8.5 (8.4)
0.9 (1.0)	Stolen Bases	0.5 (0.5)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

RaysDrew RasmussenConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-15360.5%Under+11546.5%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-11653.7%Under-11453.3%

Total Outs Recorded17.5Over-15060.0%Under+11346.9%

Total Strikeouts5.5Over-14058.3%Under+11047.6%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+11346.9%Under-15060.0%

RangersJacob deGromConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-14158.5%Under+10648.5%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-11252.8%Under-11854.1%

Total Outs Recorded16.5Over-11753.9%Under-11453.3%

Total Strikeouts5.5Over+10848.1%Under-13858.0%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+10449.0%Under-13858.0%

Starting lineups

Tampa Bay RaysConfirmed

1Yandy DiazDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterYandy Diaz+11008.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+13043.5%Under-17463.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41619.4%Under-65086.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-24270.8%Under+17935.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11653.7%Under-11553.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24229.2%Under-35177.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11746.1%Under-16261.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13256.9%Under-10451.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20133.2%Under-28674.1%
2Jonathan Aranda1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJonathan Aranda+83010.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+14041.7%Under-18865.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43918.6%Under-69087.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-20266.9%Under+15139.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10451.0%Under-12755.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20932.4%Under-29874.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12344.8%Under-17163.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10250.5%Under-13557.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19134.4%Under-27173.0%
3Junior Caminero3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJunior Caminero+68012.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+11646.3%Under-15560.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41419.5%Under-65086.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-23570.1%Under+17436.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11553.5%Under-11553.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16737.5%Under-23670.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12245.0%Under-17063.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10651.5%Under-13156.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19334.1%Under-27573.3%
4Liam HicksC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterLiam Hicks+17005.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+52915.9%Under-87089.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-15761.1%Under+11845.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13642.4%Under-18264.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27826.5%Under-40880.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19733.7%Under-28173.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10149.8%Under-13958.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23030.3%Under-33376.9%
5Chandler SimpsonLF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterChandler Simpson+39002.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46117.8%Under-73088.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-23169.8%Under+17136.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10249.5%Under-13657.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27226.9%Under-40080.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18435.2%Under-26172.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-15660.9%Under+11346.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+21531.7%Under-30875.5%
6Victor Mesa Jr.RF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterVictor Mesa Jr.+12207.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45218.1%Under-72087.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-14959.8%Under+11247.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12644.2%Under-16962.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22331.0%Under-32176.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17935.8%Under-25371.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13342.9%Under-18564.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+76011.6%Under-136093.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+32823.4%Under-49383.1%
7Cedric MullinsCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterCedric Mullins+12007.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50516.5%Under-82089.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-12856.1%Under-10451.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15861.2%Under+11945.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23429.9%Under-33977.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18035.7%Under-25571.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+16138.3%Under-22669.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+64013.5%Under-110091.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25628.1%Under-37378.9%
8Richie Palacios2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterRichie Palacios+22004.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+62013.9%Under-106091.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-11753.9%Under-11353.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-14859.7%Under+11147.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+35621.9%Under-54184.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+22430.9%Under-32276.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13342.9%Under-18464.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+72012.2%Under-126092.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+27826.5%Under-40980.4%
9Taylor WallsSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterTaylor Walls+24004.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+61014.1%Under-104091.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-11152.6%Under-11954.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15260.3%Under+11446.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+35122.2%Under-53284.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19034.5%Under-27073.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14640.7%Under-20467.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+42719.0%Under-67087.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19234.2%Under-27273.1%

Texas RangersConfirmed

1Joc PedersonDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJoc Pederson+84010.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+54615.5%Under-90090.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-13858.0%Under+10449.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17063.0%Under+12843.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28326.1%Under-41880.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14540.8%Under-20266.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15040.0%Under-21067.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28925.7%Under-42781.0%
2Corey SeagerSS
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterCorey Seager+71012.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+52216.1%Under-85089.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-17163.1%Under+12843.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11247.2%Under-14959.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21731.5%Under-31275.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12744.1%Under-17663.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13043.5%Under-18164.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19334.1%Under-27473.3%
3Wyatt LangfordLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterWyatt Langford+11208.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41119.6%Under-64086.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-18564.9%Under+13941.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11346.9%Under-15060.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24329.2%Under-35277.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15040.0%Under-21067.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11147.4%Under-15360.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+48517.1%Under-78088.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21731.5%Under-31275.7%
4Brandon NimmoRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterBrandon Nimmo+11208.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45817.9%Under-73088.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-18564.9%Under+13842.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11047.6%Under-14659.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21631.6%Under-30975.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15938.6%Under-22369.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10349.3%Under-14358.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+76011.6%Under-136093.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26027.8%Under-38179.2%
5Ezequiel Duran2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterEzequiel Duran+21004.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47817.3%Under-77088.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-17263.2%Under+12943.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12644.2%Under-16862.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25728.0%Under-37679.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19533.9%Under-27873.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10350.7%Under-13557.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+45817.9%Under-73088.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+34822.3%Under-52784.1%
6Jake Burger1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJake Burger+10808.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+58914.5%Under-98090.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-13657.6%Under+10249.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15861.2%Under+11945.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23529.9%Under-34077.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17935.8%Under-25371.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21568.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+34822.3%Under-52784.1%
7Evan CarterCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterEvan Carter+16205.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+62013.9%Under-106091.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-11152.6%Under-11954.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-13557.4%Under+10249.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+32423.6%Under-48783.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+23130.2%Under-33376.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15738.9%Under-22068.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+49416.8%Under-80088.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26927.1%Under-39579.8%
8Cody Freeman3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterCody Freeman+34002.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+68012.8%Under-120092.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-11653.7%Under-11453.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-14058.3%Under+10548.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+38520.6%Under-59285.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+26927.1%Under-39579.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12943.7%Under-17964.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+36621.5%Under-55884.8%
9Danny JansenC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterDanny Jansen+21004.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+63013.7%Under-108091.5%
Total Hits0.5Over+10548.8%Under-14058.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-11753.9%Under-11453.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+36521.5%Under-55784.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+24628.9%Under-35778.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+18035.7%Under-25571.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+30424.8%Under-45281.9%

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