MLB matchup

09/05/20267:05 PMCamden YardsBaltimore, MD79°F · Intermittent clouds

Red Sox84 – 71vsOrioles75 – 80

Sharp side

🏠 Orioles +105

Model value

Sharp total

↑ Over 7.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Boston Red Sox	4.2	53.2%
Baltimore Orioles	3.9	46.8%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Boston Red Sox	B-	A-	B
Baltimore Orioles	B	B-	B

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS-126-1.5 (+134)

BAL+105+1.5 (-163)

Total 7.5Over -118Under -102

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS-125-1.5 (+135)

BAL+105+1.5 (-165)

Total 7.5Over -110Under -110

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS-139-1.5 (+120)

BAL+117+1.5 (-148)

Total 7.5Over -121Under +100

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS-121-1.5 (+135)

BAL+110+1.5 (-160)

Total 7.5Over -105Under -115

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS-119-1.5 (+135)

BAL+109+1.5 (-155)

Total 7.5Over -105Under -115

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS-130-1.5 (+130)

BAL+110+1.5 (-160)

Total 7.5Over -110Under -110

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS-130-1.5 (+130)

BAL+110+1.5 (-156)

Total 7.5Over -112Under -108

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS-130-1.5 (+130)

BAL+115+1.5 (-160)

Total 7.5Over -115Under -105

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS-128-1.5 (+135)

BAL+113+1.5 (-160)

Total 7.5Over -115Under -105

Recent form

Last 10 games

Boston Red Sox

Overall4–6–0W–L–TRun line2–8–0W–L–PO/U6–4–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/4/26	@ BAL	W 1–0	L -1.5	U 8
9/3/26	@ BAL	W 6–5	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/2/26	vs SEA	L 3–8	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/1/26	vs SEA	L 6–9	L +1.5	O 7
8/31/26	vs SEA	W 9–8	L -1.5	O 7.5
8/30/26	@ NYY	L 1–16	L -1.5	O 8
8/29/26	@ NYY	L 2–9	L +1.5	O 7
8/29/26	@ NYY	W 6–0	W -1.5	U 7.5
8/28/26	@ NYY	L 0–1	W +1.5	U 7
8/26/26	@ MIA	L 0–4	L -1.5	U 7.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Baltimore Orioles

Overall5–5–0W–L–TRun line4–6–0W–L–PO/U4–6–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/4/26	vs BOS	L 0–1	W +1.5	U 8
9/3/26	vs BOS	L 5–6	W +1.5	O 8.5
9/2/26	@ COL	L 5–6	L -1.5	U 11.5
9/1/26	@ COL	L 2–4	L -1.5	U 11
8/31/26	@ COL	W 2–1	L -1.5	U 11
8/30/26	@ ATH	W 8–5	W -1.5	O 10
8/29/26	@ ATH	W 5–3	W -1.5	U 10
8/28/26	@ ATH	W 4–3	L -1.5	U 9.5
8/27/26	@ STL	L 5–7	L -1.5	O 8
8/26/26	@ STL	W 8–7	L -1.5	O 8.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Red Sox and Orioles
	Statistic
8.3 (8.4)	Hits	7.3 (7.6)
1.8 (1.8)	Doubles	1.3 (1.4)
1.0 (1.0)	Home Runs	1.1 (1.2)
13.3 (13.5)	Total Bases	12.1 (12.8)
3.1 (3.2)	Walks	3.7 (3.7)
8.2 (8.1)	Strikeouts	9.4 (9.3)
0.7 (0.7)	Stolen Bases	0.6 (0.6)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

Red SoxSonny GrayConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+11247.2%Under-14959.8%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-15861.2%Under+11945.7%

Total Outs Recorded17.5Over-14459.0%Under+10848.1%

Total Strikeouts5.5Over-12956.3%Under+10149.8%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+11446.7%Under-15160.2%

OriolesChris BassittConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+10947.8%Under-14559.2%

Total Hits Allowed5.5Over-10651.5%Under-12655.8%

Total Outs Recorded16.5Over+10249.5%Under-13557.4%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over+10349.3%Under-13256.9%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-12255.0%Under-10952.2%

Starting lineups

Boston Red SoxConfirmed

1Roman AnthonyDH
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterRoman Anthony+84010.6%
Total Bases1.5Over+11247.2%Under-14859.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+35721.9%Under-54384.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-26772.8%Under+19633.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14459.0%Under+10848.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19733.7%Under-28173.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11553.5%Under-12054.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13357.1%Under-10451.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9209.8%Under-174094.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+11446.7%Under-15761.1%
2Mickey Gasper1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterMickey Gasper+9209.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+14540.8%Under-19466.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42918.9%Under-67087.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-20967.6%Under+15639.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11152.6%Under-11954.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19633.8%Under-27973.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11646.3%Under-16161.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10952.2%Under-12655.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18635.0%Under-26372.5%
3Wilyer AbreuRF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterWilyer Abreu+66013.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+11147.4%Under-14859.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+35921.8%Under-54784.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-23570.1%Under+17436.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12355.2%Under-10751.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+14840.3%Under-20767.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11346.9%Under-15761.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10050.0%Under-13858.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+77011.5%Under-138093.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17935.8%Under-25371.7%
4Trevor StorySS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterTrevor Story+11807.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+14540.8%Under-19466.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44818.2%Under-71087.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-20667.3%Under+15339.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10451.0%Under-12755.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18635.0%Under-26372.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14041.7%Under-19666.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10751.7%Under-12956.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+44518.3%Under-70087.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+29325.4%Under-43481.3%
5Nick Sogard3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterNick Sogard+20004.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47517.4%Under-76088.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-18264.5%Under+13642.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11047.6%Under-14659.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25128.5%Under-36578.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14840.3%Under-20667.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11453.3%Under-12154.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9609.4%Under-184094.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15539.2%Under-21768.5%
6Isiah Kiner-Falefa2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterIsiah Kiner-Falefa+28003.4%
Total Bases1.5Over+15639.1%Under-21067.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48217.2%Under-77088.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-22969.6%Under+17037.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10551.2%Under-12655.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24928.7%Under-36278.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15738.9%Under-22068.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-14859.7%Under+10748.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+30924.4%Under-46082.1%
7Jarren DuranLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJarren Duran+11208.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43118.8%Under-68087.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-19165.6%Under+14341.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10050.0%Under-13357.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19234.2%Under-27373.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13842.0%Under-19265.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10848.1%Under-14959.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+53815.7%Under-88089.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26827.2%Under-39379.7%
8Eli WhiteCF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterEli White+20004.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+52815.9%Under-86089.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-16662.4%Under+12544.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12145.2%Under-16261.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25228.4%Under-36678.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17236.8%Under-24270.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10249.5%Under-14158.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+59414.4%Under-99090.8%
9Connor WongC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterConnor Wong+23004.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+58214.7%Under-97090.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-14559.2%Under+10947.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13342.9%Under-17864.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28625.9%Under-42380.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17236.8%Under-24370.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11247.2%Under-15660.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25228.4%Under-36878.6%

Baltimore OriolesConfirmed

1Jackson HollidayDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJackson Holliday+16205.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46117.8%Under-73088.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-20767.4%Under+15439.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10349.3%Under-13657.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+30724.6%Under-45782.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13642.4%Under-18965.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12455.4%Under-11152.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21931.3%Under-31475.8%
2Blaze Alexander2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterBlaze Alexander+15806.0%
Total Bases1.5Over+15339.5%Under-20667.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47017.5%Under-75088.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-23269.9%Under+17236.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10350.7%Under-12956.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27027.0%Under-39679.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13941.8%Under-19365.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13557.4%Under-10250.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22830.5%Under-32976.7%
3Gunnar HendersonSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterGunnar Henderson+11008.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+14441.0%Under-19365.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42419.1%Under-67087.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-21468.2%Under+15938.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10451.0%Under-12755.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20233.1%Under-28874.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13542.6%Under-18965.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10952.2%Under-12655.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+62013.9%Under-106091.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21132.2%Under-30275.1%
4Pete Alonso1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterPete Alonso+85010.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+13243.1%Under-17663.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46817.6%Under-75088.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-19966.6%Under+14940.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11152.6%Under-12054.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+15639.1%Under-21868.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12444.6%Under-17263.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11346.9%Under-15660.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20632.7%Under-29474.6%
5Samuel BasalloC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterSamuel Basallo+11408.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+54115.6%Under-89089.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-15961.4%Under+11945.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11945.7%Under-15861.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21531.7%Under-30875.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21668.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12444.6%Under-17263.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26627.3%Under-39079.6%
6Heston KjerstadRF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterHeston Kjerstad+15806.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+55915.2%Under-92090.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-14459.0%Under+10848.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17964.2%Under+13442.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+30424.8%Under-45381.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18535.1%Under-26272.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12344.8%Under-17163.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31524.1%Under-47182.5%
7Christian Encarnacion-Strand3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterChristian Encarnacion-Strand+11607.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48617.1%Under-78088.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-17763.9%Under+13342.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11945.7%Under-15961.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21831.4%Under-31375.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16338.0%Under-22969.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11746.1%Under-16362.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+35222.1%Under-53584.3%
8Dylan BeaversLF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterDylan Beavers+18605.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+59614.4%Under-100090.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-10851.9%Under-12355.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-13657.6%Under+10249.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+32623.5%Under-49083.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+20932.4%Under-29974.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+16837.3%Under-23770.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22930.4%Under-33076.7%
9Colton CowserCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterColton Cowser+18205.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+67013.0%Under-116092.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-10150.2%Under-13156.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-12755.9%Under-10451.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+32623.5%Under-48983.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+20432.9%Under-29274.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+18135.6%Under-25772.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9809.3%Under-190095.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25328.3%Under-36978.7%

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