MLB matchup

09/05/20267:10 PMKauffman StadiumKansas City, MO98°F · Mostly sunny

Blue Jays76 – 79vsRoyals67 – 88

Sharp side

🏠 Royals -108

Model value

Sharp total

↓ Under 9.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Toronto Blue Jays	4.6	49.7%
Kansas City Royals	4.7	50.3%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Toronto Blue Jays	C+	B	B-
Kansas City Royals	C	C+	C

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

TOR-111-1.5 (+143)

KC-108+1.5 (-173)

Total 9.5Over -104Under -115

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

TOR-110-1.5 (+145)

KC-110+1.5 (-175)

Total 9.5Over -105Under -115

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

TOR-105-1.5 (+150)

KC-114+1.5 (-186)

Total 9.5Over -109Under -112

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

TOR-107-1.5 (+133)

KC-103+1.5 (-184)

Total 9.5Over -105Under -115

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

TOR-105-1.5 (+145)

KC-105+1.5 (-165)

Total 9.5Over -105Under -115

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

TOR-110-1.5 (+140)

KC-110+1.5 (-170)

Total 9.5Over -105Under -115

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

TOR-106-1.5 (+150)

KC-110+1.5 (-182)

Total 9.5Over -105Under -115

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

TOR-110-1.5 (+145)

KC-110+1.5 (-175)

Total 9.5Over -105Under -115

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

TOR-108-1.5 (+145)

KC-104+1.5 (-175)

Total 9.5Over -105Under -115

Recent form

Last 10 games

Toronto Blue Jays

Overall7–3–0W–L–TRun line7–3–0W–L–PO/U5–4–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/4/26	@ KC	W 9–2	W -1.5	O 10
9/3/26	@ CLE	W 6–3	W -1.5	O 8
9/2/26	@ CLE	W 11–0	W -1.5	O 7
9/1/26	@ CLE	L 1–6	L +1.5	U 8
8/30/26	vs SEA	W 7–0	W +1.5	U 8
8/29/26	vs SEA	W 4–3	W +1.5	U 7.5
8/28/26	vs SEA	W 8–1	W -1.5	O 7
8/27/26	vs KC	L 2–13	L +1.5	O 8.5
8/26/26	vs KC	W 3–0	W -1.5	U 8.5
8/25/26	vs KC	L 3–5	L -1.5	P 8

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Kansas City Royals

Overall5–5–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U6–3–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/4/26	vs TOR	L 2–9	L +1.5	O 10
9/3/26	vs MIA	W 7–3	W +1.5	O 9
9/2/26	vs MIA	L 6–9	L -1.5	O 9
9/1/26	vs MIA	L 3–6	L +1.5	U 10
8/30/26	@ CLE	L 1–11	L +1.5	O 7.5
8/29/26	@ CLE	W 8–3	W +1.5	O 8
8/28/26	@ CLE	W 3–0	W +1.5	U 7.5
8/27/26	@ TOR	W 13–2	W -1.5	O 8.5
8/26/26	@ TOR	L 0–3	L +1.5	U 8.5
8/25/26	@ TOR	W 5–3	W +1.5	P 8

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Blue Jays and Royals
	Statistic
8.8 (8.5)	Hits	8.6 (8.4)
1.7 (1.7)	Doubles	1.9 (1.9)
1.1 (1.0)	Home Runs	1.1 (1.0)
14.0 (13.3)	Total Bases	14.1 (13.7)
2.9 (2.9)	Walks	3.2 (3.1)
7.1 (7.2)	Strikeouts	7.6 (7.7)
0.5 (0.4)	Stolen Bases	0.8 (0.8)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

Blue JaysMax ScherzerConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over-11954.3%Under-11152.6%

Total Hits Allowed5.5Over+12045.5%Under-16061.5%

Total Outs Recorded15.5Over+11346.9%Under-15160.2%

Total Strikeouts3.5Over-11753.9%Under-10952.2%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+10050.0%Under-13357.1%

RoyalsSeth LugoConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over-12355.2%Under-10851.9%

Total Hits Allowed6.5Over-10250.5%Under-13056.5%

Total Outs Recorded17.5Over-11052.4%Under-12154.8%

Total Strikeouts3.5Over+10848.1%Under-13858.0%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+14740.5%Under-19766.3%

Starting lineups

Toronto Blue JaysConfirmed

1Brett BatemanCF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterBrett Bateman+21004.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+12344.8%Under-16462.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+33223.1%Under-50083.3%
Total Hits1.5Over+19134.4%Under-26072.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13657.6%Under+10249.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24129.3%Under-34977.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10050.0%Under-13958.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-16061.5%Under+11546.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9109.9%Under-174094.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16238.2%Under-22869.5%
2George SpringerDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterGeorge Springer+86010.4%
Total Bases1.5Over-10651.5%Under-12555.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+31024.4%Under-46382.2%
Total Hits1.5Over+16637.6%Under-22469.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs2.5Over+12344.8%Under-16462.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21568.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-12154.8%Under-11453.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-15160.2%Under+10947.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18734.8%Under-26572.6%
3Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterVladimir Guerrero Jr.+10608.6%
Total Bases1.5Over-11453.3%Under-11653.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+27826.5%Under-41080.4%
Total Hits1.5Over+14241.3%Under-19065.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs2.5Over+11646.3%Under-15560.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+14041.7%Under-19566.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10350.7%Under-13457.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-18264.5%Under+13143.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22930.4%Under-33076.7%
4Alejandro KirkC
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterAlejandro Kirk+13606.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+10848.1%Under-14358.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+34122.7%Under-51583.7%
Total Hits1.5Over+17436.5%Under-23570.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-16061.5%Under+12045.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+15139.8%Under-21167.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10548.8%Under-14559.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-17363.4%Under+12544.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20233.1%Under-28874.2%
5Nathan LukesRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterNathan Lukes+16005.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+13442.7%Under-17964.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+35222.1%Under-53484.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-25371.7%Under+18635.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12255.0%Under-10952.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19334.1%Under-27573.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13243.1%Under-18464.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13457.3%Under-10350.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+27426.7%Under-40280.1%
6Kazuma Okamoto3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterKazuma Okamoto+9209.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+12744.1%Under-17063.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39220.3%Under-61085.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-20367.0%Under+15139.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11453.3%Under-11653.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16238.2%Under-22769.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11047.6%Under-15260.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11047.6%Under-15260.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20832.5%Under-29774.8%
7Andres GimenezSS
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterAndres Gimenez+21004.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41419.5%Under-65086.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-20367.0%Under+15139.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10250.5%Under-13056.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22131.2%Under-31776.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14341.2%Under-20066.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12054.5%Under-11553.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+70012.5%Under-124092.5%
8Ernie Clement2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterErnie Clement+26003.7%
Total Bases1.5Over+11746.1%Under-15660.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+32523.5%Under-48783.0%
Total Hits1.5Over+18235.5%Under-24771.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13557.4%Under+10249.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19533.9%Under-27773.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12744.1%Under-17763.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-16362.0%Under+11845.9%
9Myles StrawLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterMyles Straw+23004.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47317.5%Under-76088.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-17363.4%Under+12943.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10648.5%Under-14158.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24129.3%Under-34977.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14840.3%Under-20767.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10551.2%Under-13156.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9209.8%Under-174094.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23629.8%Under-34277.4%

Kansas City RoyalsConfirmed

1Carter JensenC
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterCarter Jensen+72012.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+10947.8%Under-14559.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+29425.4%Under-43681.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-22068.8%Under+16338.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13156.7%Under-10150.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17236.8%Under-24270.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-12655.8%Under-10952.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11746.1%Under-16362.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+11945.7%Under-16562.3%
2Bobby Witt Jr.SS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterBobby Witt Jr.+84010.6%
Total Bases1.5Over-10250.5%Under-12956.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+27326.8%Under-40180.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14559.2%Under+10947.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+15738.9%Under-22168.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11252.8%Under-12355.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10751.7%Under-12956.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+36821.4%Under-56184.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20632.7%Under-29574.7%
3Jac CaglianoneRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJac Caglianone+77011.5%
Total Bases1.5Over-11152.6%Under-11954.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+29825.1%Under-44381.6%
Total Hits1.5Over+18635.0%Under-25271.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-15060.0%Under+11346.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+13842.0%Under-19365.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10551.2%Under-13256.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11453.3%Under-12154.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23529.9%Under-33977.2%
4Salvador PerezDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterSalvador Perez+10408.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+12444.6%Under-16562.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+34322.6%Under-51983.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-21267.9%Under+15738.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11854.1%Under-11252.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16338.0%Under-23069.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11945.7%Under-16462.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10449.0%Under-14358.8%
5Vinnie Pasquantino1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterVinnie Pasquantino+11807.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+11945.7%Under-15861.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+31024.4%Under-46282.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-23069.7%Under+17037.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12154.8%Under-11052.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17736.1%Under-25071.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11247.2%Under-15560.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10150.2%Under-13757.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19434.0%Under-27673.4%
6Michael Massey2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterMichael Massey+13606.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+12943.7%Under-17363.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+33523.0%Under-50583.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-21167.8%Under+15738.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10751.7%Under-12455.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20133.2%Under-28674.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13742.2%Under-19165.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10050.0%Under-13858.0%
7John RaveCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJohn Rave+16805.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39420.2%Under-61085.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-15861.2%Under+11945.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12045.5%Under-16061.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23929.5%Under-34677.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15838.8%Under-22268.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12245.0%Under-16962.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+58714.6%Under-98090.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26827.2%Under-39379.7%
8Josh Rojas3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJosh Rojas+19804.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40519.8%Under-63086.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-15961.4%Under+11945.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11646.3%Under-15560.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23529.9%Under-34077.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16038.5%Under-22469.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11845.9%Under-16362.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28725.8%Under-42480.9%
9Isaac CollinsLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterIsaac Collins+24004.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41119.6%Under-64086.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-15660.9%Under+11746.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11446.7%Under-15260.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25428.2%Under-37078.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14041.7%Under-19566.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16662.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+84010.6%Under-156094.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16637.6%Under-23470.1%

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