MLB matchup

09/05/20267:15 PMPETCO ParkSan Diego, CA85°F · Mostly cloudy

Yankees89 – 65vsPadres85 – 69

Sharp side

✈️ Yankees +105

Model value

Sharp total

↓ Under 7.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
New York Yankees	3.9	55.4%
San Diego Padres	3.4	44.6%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
New York Yankees	B	A	A-
San Diego Padres	B	B	B

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYY+105+1.5 (-198)

SD-126-1.5 (+163)

Total 7.5Over -114Under -106

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYY+110+1.5 (-200)

SD-135-1.5 (+165)

Total 7.5Over -115Under -105

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYY+108+1.5 (-230)

SD-122-1.5 (+175)

Total 7.5Over -115Under -104

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYY+112+1.5 (-195)

SD-122-1.5 (+162)

Total 7.5Over -115Under -105

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYY+118+1.5 (-190)

SD-128-1.5 (+165)

Total 7.5Over -110Under -110

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYY+110+1.5 (-190)

SD-130-1.5 (+155)

Total 7.5Over -115Under -105

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYY+110+1.5 (-210)

SD-130-1.5 (+172)

Total 7.5Over -115Under -105

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYY+105+1.5 (-220)

SD-125-1.5 (+160)

Total 7.5Over -115Under -105

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYY+109+1.5 (-200)

SD-123-1.5 (+165)

Total 7.5Over -115Under -105

Recent form

Last 10 games

New York Yankees

Overall6–4–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U6–4–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/4/26	@ SD	L 2–3	L -1.5	U 7
9/2/26	@ LAA	W 6–3	W -1.5	O 6.5
9/1/26	@ LAA	W 7–3	W -1.5	O 7
8/31/26	@ LAA	L 1–10	L -1.5	O 8
8/30/26	vs BOS	W 16–1	W +1.5	O 8
8/29/26	vs BOS	W 9–2	W -1.5	O 7
8/29/26	vs BOS	L 0–6	L +1.5	U 7.5
8/28/26	vs BOS	W 1–0	L -1.5	U 7
8/27/26	vs HOU	L 1–5	L -1.5	U 8
8/26/26	vs HOU	W 9–3	W -1.5	O 9

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

San Diego Padres

Overall3–7–0W–L–TRun line6–4–0W–L–PO/U4–6–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/4/26	vs NYY	W 3–2	W +1.5	U 7
9/2/26	@ CIN	L 3–7	L -1.5	O 9.5
9/1/26	@ CIN	L 3–4	L -1.5	U 9
8/31/26	@ CIN	W 5–0	W -1.5	U 9
8/30/26	@ TB	L 4–5	W +1.5	O 7
8/29/26	@ TB	L 6–7	W +1.5	O 8
8/28/26	@ TB	L 4–9	L +1.5	O 7.5
8/26/26	vs PIT	W 3–0	W -1.5	U 8.5
8/25/26	vs PIT	L 0–1	L -1.5	U 7
8/24/26	vs PIT	L 2–3	W +1.5	U 7.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Yankees and Padres
	Statistic
7.3 (7.8)	Hits	7.1 (7.9)
1.3 (1.4)	Doubles	1.3 (1.4)
1.2 (1.4)	Home Runs	0.9 (1.1)
12.5 (13.5)	Total Bases	11.4 (12.9)
3.4 (3.6)	Walks	3.1 (3.3)
9.5 (9.4)	Strikeouts	8.3 (8.1)
0.9 (0.9)	Stolen Bases	0.9 (0.9)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

YankeesCarlos RodonConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+12145.2%Under-16161.7%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over+10848.1%Under-14358.8%

Total Outs Recorded15.5Over+12045.5%Under-16061.5%

Total Strikeouts5.5Over+12943.7%Under-16562.3%

Total Walks Allowed2.5Over+13842.0%Under-18564.9%

PadresRobbie RayConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+12544.4%Under-16662.4%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over+10548.8%Under-14058.3%

Total Outs Recorded15.5Over-12355.2%Under-10851.9%

Total Strikeouts5.5Over+10349.3%Under-13256.9%

Total Walks Allowed2.5Over+10848.1%Under-14459.0%

Starting lineups

New York YankeesConfirmed

1Paul Goldschmidt1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterPaul Goldschmidt+9309.7%
Total Bases1.5Over+13842.0%Under-18464.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37721.0%Under-57785.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-20266.9%Under+15139.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11353.1%Under-11854.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22530.8%Under-32476.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10449.0%Under-14459.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10249.5%Under-14158.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+11646.3%Under-16061.5%
2Cody BellingerLF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterCody Bellinger+11008.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+14041.7%Under-18765.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38920.4%Under-60085.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-20767.4%Under+15439.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10451.0%Under-12856.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23130.2%Under-33477.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12544.4%Under-17463.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10551.2%Under-13156.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+84010.6%Under-156094.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17336.6%Under-24470.9%
3Amed Rosario2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterAmed Rosario+11408.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44418.4%Under-70087.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-16562.3%Under+12444.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12245.0%Under-16261.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24229.2%Under-35177.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17736.1%Under-25071.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10848.1%Under-15060.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+10208.9%Under-210095.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31124.3%Under-46382.2%
4Ben RiceDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterBen Rice+11208.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42519.0%Under-67087.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-16762.5%Under+12544.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10947.8%Under-14559.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19434.0%Under-27673.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13642.4%Under-19065.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12943.7%Under-17964.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15838.8%Under-22268.9%
5Heliot RamosRF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterHeliot Ramos+84010.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48617.1%Under-78088.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-15460.6%Under+11646.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11646.3%Under-15460.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19833.6%Under-28373.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13143.3%Under-18264.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14241.3%Under-19866.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+12943.7%Under-17964.2%
6George Lombard Jr.SS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterGeorge Lombard Jr.+18205.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50816.4%Under-82089.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-13156.7%Under-10250.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17763.9%Under+13243.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28426.0%Under-41980.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18535.1%Under-26372.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13442.7%Under-18665.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+77011.5%Under-138093.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14640.7%Under-20367.0%
7Spencer JonesCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterSpencer Jones+12407.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+51716.2%Under-84089.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-13757.8%Under+10349.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17563.6%Under+13143.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22730.6%Under-32776.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15738.9%Under-22068.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15738.9%Under-22168.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+65013.3%Under-112091.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18135.6%Under-25671.9%
8Jose Caballero3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJose Caballero+20004.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+53015.9%Under-87089.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-12455.4%Under-10751.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16862.7%Under+12644.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+29025.6%Under-43081.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18734.8%Under-26572.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13941.8%Under-19466.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+35022.2%Under-53184.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16637.6%Under-23470.1%
9Austin WellsC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterAustin Wells+22004.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+64013.5%Under-110091.7%
Total Hits0.5Over+11247.2%Under-14959.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-11954.3%Under-11152.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+33722.9%Under-50983.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+21731.5%Under-31175.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+19434.0%Under-27773.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23829.6%Under-34477.5%

San Diego PadresConfirmed

1Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterFernando Tatis Jr.+70012.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+11247.2%Under-14959.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39320.3%Under-61085.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-25171.5%Under+18535.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14058.3%Under+10548.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16737.5%Under-23570.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11553.5%Under-12054.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11353.1%Under-12255.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+45618.0%Under-72087.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16662.4%
2Xander BogaertsSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterXander Bogaerts+14406.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40519.8%Under-63086.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-20767.4%Under+15439.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11052.4%Under-12154.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22530.8%Under-32576.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11247.2%Under-15560.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11653.7%Under-11954.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+43318.8%Under-68087.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+10947.8%Under-15160.2%
3Manny Machado3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterManny Machado+88010.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42019.2%Under-66086.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-18965.4%Under+14141.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10451.0%Under-12856.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17636.2%Under-24971.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12344.8%Under-17063.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11247.2%Under-15560.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+13143.3%Under-18264.5%
4Ty France1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterTy France+12407.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+14341.2%Under-19165.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41119.6%Under-64086.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-19966.6%Under+14940.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10851.9%Under-12255.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17436.5%Under-24671.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13342.9%Under-18665.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10250.5%Under-13657.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18235.5%Under-25872.1%
5Jackson MerrillCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJackson Merrill+13406.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41219.5%Under-64086.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-18965.4%Under+14141.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10449.0%Under-13858.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19633.8%Under-27973.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14540.8%Under-20367.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10548.8%Under-14559.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+84010.6%Under-154093.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24828.7%Under-36178.3%
6Luis CampusanoDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterLuis Campusano+14406.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49116.9%Under-79088.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-14759.5%Under+11047.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13243.1%Under-17663.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24828.7%Under-36178.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16238.2%Under-22869.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12644.2%Under-17563.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14441.0%Under-20266.9%
7Freddy FerminC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterFreddy Fermin+17005.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+59214.5%Under-99090.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-13357.1%Under+10050.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17063.0%Under+12843.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28625.9%Under-42380.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18934.6%Under-26872.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12245.0%Under-16962.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23529.9%Under-33977.2%
8Jake Cronenworth2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJake Cronenworth+26003.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+54215.6%Under-89089.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-13457.3%Under+10149.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-18564.9%Under+13941.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+30324.8%Under-45181.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17636.2%Under-24971.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11845.9%Under-16362.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16937.2%Under-23870.4%
9Samad TaylorLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterSamad Taylor+34002.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+60014.3%Under-102091.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-10250.5%Under-13056.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-14459.0%Under+10848.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+36921.3%Under-56585.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19334.1%Under-27573.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15040.0%Under-21067.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+65013.3%Under-112091.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18535.1%Under-26372.5%

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